China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

Avatar 2 will never be released.

 

Come on, Avatar was released 8 years ago, how is that possible to take so much time?? o_o What about cost overruns?

SFX work did apparently, it will soon by too late to have it cancelled.

 

http://screencrush.com/avatar-sequels-vfx-production/

 

Avatar 2 hits theaters on December 18, 2020; followed by Avatar 3 on December 17, 2021; Avatar 4 on December 20, 2024; and Avatar 5 on December 19, 2025.

 

IndieWire reports that all four Avatar sequels are heading into VFX production simultaneously. Cameron recently finished writing the scripts for all of them, so it makes sense that they’d start this stage of pre-production at the same time, so that they all keep to the same look. Said Cameron in a statement:

[Gavin Feng]

Avatar 2, 3D without 3D glasses, 2 billion dollars

[Fullbuster]

6 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Avatar 2, 3D without 3D glasses, 2 billion dollars

 

Avatar 5 with Virtual Reality : $3B

[MinaTakla]

 

[setna]

This is the most amazing moment tracking box office since the start of TFA, maybe even more, cause Chines Box office is less predictable.

How much will be the roof of WW2?

650, 700, 750, 800, maybe even more...?????

great days for box office.

congrats to the Chinese industry, the countdown to be n.1 in the world has already started.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Hmm....

 

Hasn't BOM updated Wolf Warrior 2's WW box office yet? The China gross must be around $470M by now.

[titanic2187]

may i seeing it right? the showtimes for WW2 now stand at above 60%, but this friday is going to shrink to about 10%? 

 

[Olive]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

may i seeing it right? the showtimes for WW2 now stand at above 60%, but this friday is going to shrink to about 10%? 

 

Yes, you are right.

But theaters haven't started to add showtimes for holdovers.

WW2 should have 30-35% on Friday ,and 45% on Sunday

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

 

Catching up fast with Stephen Chow’s The Mermaid, it’s on course to outgross the latter to become the biggest film of all time as early as tomorrow. Its final gross is estimated to be at least $579m (RMB4b).

 

Another rocket scientist. Must have comsulted with DHD.  Gross will be 4b friday morning.

Even with a 55-60% drop this weekend, 5.5b/$817m is locked -

 

Monday coming in the 230s -45%. A good hold. OUT is droppin the standard 55%.. I'm thinking DoD drops normalizes and -10% expected for tomorrow and thru thursday. 

150-160m on thursday.  60% shows

3950m total thu 8/10

130-150m on Friday.  30% shows (my guess). it had 42 and 44% the first two fridays.

500-600m weekend. 

900-1000m week

4850--4950m  thu 8/17 with weak competition ahead.

 

I doubt it drops this much, but if -55-60% WoW

400m week 4

175m week 5

75m week 6

35m week 7

15m week 8

5550-5650m

50% drops

500m

250m

125m

65m

30m

5800-5900m

 

A couple -40% holds in the mix gets it over 6000m and close to SW7. 

 

-40% for the next 5 weeks. $1b

 

$820m- $1B.  Hope to raise the lower end on friday.

Edited August 7, 2017 by POTUS

[A Marvel Fanboy]

WW2 drops are getting normalized. 6B may or may not happen, maybe 5.7B finish.

[Olive]

Mermaid had 14 days over 100M consecutively, WW2 may double it.

[titanic2187]

16 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Catching up fast with Stephen Chow’s The Mermaid, it’s on course to outgross the latter to become the biggest film of all time as early as tomorrow. Its final gross is estimated to be at least $579m (RMB4b).

 

Another rocket scientist. Must have comsulted with DHD.  Gross will be 4b friday morning.

Even with a 55-60% drop this weekend, 5.5b/$817m is locked -

 

Monday coming in the 230s -45%. A good hold. OUT is droppin the standard 55%.. I'm thinking DoD drops normalizes and -10% expected for tomorrow and thru thursday. 

150-160m on thursday.  60% shows

3950m total thu 8/10

130-150m on Friday.  30% shows (my guess). it had 42 and 44% the first two fridays.

500-600m weekend. 

900-1000m week

4850--4950m  thu 8/17 with weak competition ahead.

 

I doubt it drops this much, but if -55-60% WoW

400m week 4

175m week 5

75m week 6

35m week 7

15m week 8

5550-5650m

50% drops

500m

250m

125m

65m

30m

5800-5900m

 

A couple -40% holds in the mix gets it over 6000m and close to SW7. 

 

-40% for the next 5 weeks. $1b

 

$820m- $1B.  Hope to raise the lower end on friday.

when TF4 passed avatar, media said it's going to be tough to top that in near future

when F7 passed TF4, media said it's going to be tough to top that in near future

when MH passed F7(dubious number although), media said it's going to be tough to top that in near future

when Mermaid passed MH, media said again! it's going to be tough to top that ￥3.4b in near future

just everyone is started to believe that myth following the slowdown since 2016, WW2 just come in and nearly double that "tough to be broken" figure in a very "near future"

 

I wonder if media is going to say that again, it is going to be tough to top WW2's ￥6b gross in near future.....

[POTUS 2020]

49 minutes ago, setna said:

This is the most amazing moment tracking box office since the start of TFA, maybe even more, cause Chines Box office is less predictable.

How much will be the roof of WW2?

650, 700, 750, 800, maybe even more...?????

great days for box office.

congrats to the Chinese industry, the countdown to be n.1 in the world has already started.

I look at floors instead roofs. 820m is my floor now. Floor being the lowest likely outcome with the worse expected drops for WoM like this.

 

After the first sunday bump i thought 3-4b as a range. Top end of the range not necessarily a roof. That was a $440m floor. Then the huge Monday hold i thought 4-5b. Floor at $600m.  The thursday hold took it to $750m and the sat-sunday bump took it to $820m.  Cant have a roof with a wave like this.

If it holds -40% this friday, the floor bumps to $900m

 

 

Edited August 7, 2017 by POTUS

[the beast]

Since Interstellar Made $121M in China, How much could Dunkirk Make then?

[setna]

8 minutes ago, POTUS said:

I look at floors instead roofs. 820m is my floor now. Floor being the lowest likely outcome with the worse expected drops for WoM like this.

 

After the first sunday bump i thought 3-4b as a range. Top end of the range not necessarily a roof. That was a $440m floor. Then the huge Monday hold i thought 4-5b. Floor at $600m.  The thursday hold took it to $750m and the sat-sunday bump took it to $820m.  Cant have a roof with a wave like this.

If it holds -40% this friday, the floor bumps to $900m

 

 

Hey Potus,

how do you know so much about Chinese box office being in Hungary???

This amazes me, cause i don´t know much, even reading this thread...

 

For other side, this floor of 820 sounds really really amazing, so with this Avatar is done and only would be behind TFA!!!!!!

 

absolutely stunning!!!

 

i´m totally focused in this thread these days, really funny!!!

 

and thnks for the very good info, compared with DHD is like heaven...

[POTUS 2020]

17 minutes ago, setna said:

Hey Potus,

how do you know so much about Chinese box office being in Hungary???

This amazes me, cause i don´t know much, even reading this thread...

 

For other side, this floor of 820 sounds really really amazing, so with this Avatar is done and only would be behind TFA!!!!!!

 

absolutely stunning!!!

 

i´m totally focused in this thread these days, really funny!!!

 

and thnks for the very good info, compared with DHD is like heaven...

Im american living anout the world. In Odessa ukraine right now. 

I ve been following BO since Jaws '75. Started following CBO in this thread 2 years ago when FF7 came out. I just follow revenue patterns and extrapolate as i do with domestic, as well as with the stock market.  Ive learned a bit from @Olive and @firedeep about CBO tendecies along the way.. i like seeing new records broken as i did with Jaws and Stars wars as a kid. I called out last years slow down 2 years ago in the middle of a 50% up year all the while rooting for records to be broken.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18793-what-year-will-china-pass-domestic/

I guess both can happen at the same time.

Edited August 7, 2017 by POTUS

[Gavin Feng]

MON

before service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  224.7m / 3,166m

Once upon a Time  -  25.8m / 423.2m

The Founding of an Army  -  7.63m / 322.4m

Despicable Me 3  -  1.54m / 951.3m

 

after service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  241m / 3,400m

Once upon a Time  -  27.5m / 453.5m

The Founding of an Army  -  8.24m / 341m

Despicable Me 3  -  1.66m / 1,018m

[Gavin Feng]

China Box Office
Wolf Warrior 2
Day	Date		Rank	Gross		% - YD	% - LW	Gross-to-Date	Day #	Weekly Gross	% - Change
				RMB / M	USD / M			USD / M		USD / M
Previews	Jul. 27		1	¥102.06	$15.15	-	-	$15.15	0	$147.91	-
Fri	Jul. 28		1	¥214.68	$31.87	-	-	$47.02	1
Sat	Jul. 29		1	¥312.61	$46.41	-1.30%	-	$93.43	2
Sun	Jul. 30		1	¥367.02	$54.49	17.41%	-	$147.91	3
Mon	Jul. 31		1	¥272.99	$40.53	-25.62%	-	$188.44	4	$321.01	117.03%
Tue	Aug. 1		1	¥292.49	$43.42	7.14%	-	$231.86	5
Wed	Aug. 2		1	¥278.27	$41.31	-4.86%	-	$273.17	6
Thu	Aug. 3		1	¥227.26	$33.74	-18.33%	-	$306.91	7
Fri	Aug. 4		1	¥264.60	$39.28	16.43%	-16.46%	$346.19	8
Sat	Aug. 5		1	¥403.38	$59.88	52.45%	29.04%	$406.08	9
Sun	Aug. 6		1	¥423.37	$62.85	4.96%	15.35%	$468.93	10
Mon	Aug. 7		1	¥241.00	$35.78	-43.08%	-11.72%	$504.71	11

[setna]

35 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

China Box Office
Wolf Warrior 2
Day	Date		Rank	Gross		% - YD	% - LW	Gross-to-Date	Day #	Weekly Gross	% - Change
				RMB / M	USD / M			USD / M		USD / M
Previews	Jul. 27		1	¥102.06	$15.15	-	-	$15.15	0	$147.91	-
Fri	Jul. 28		1	¥214.68	$31.87	-	-	$47.02	1
Sat	Jul. 29		1	¥312.61	$46.41	-1.30%	-	$93.43	2
Sun	Jul. 30		1	¥367.02	$54.49	17.41%	-	$147.91	3
Mon	Jul. 31		1	¥272.99	$40.53	-25.62%	-	$188.44	4	$321.01	117.03%
Tue	Aug. 1		1	¥292.49	$43.42	7.14%	-	$231.86	5
Wed	Aug. 2		1	¥278.27	$41.31	-4.86%	-	$273.17	6
Thu	Aug. 3		1	¥227.26	$33.74	-18.33%	-	$306.91	7
Fri	Aug. 4		1	¥264.60	$39.28	16.43%	-16.46%	$346.19	8
Sat	Aug. 5		1	¥403.38	$59.88	52.45%	29.04%	$406.08	9
Sun	Aug. 6		1	¥423.37	$62.85	4.96%	15.35%	$468.93	10
Mon	Aug. 7		1	¥241.00	$35.78	-43.08%	-11.72%	$504.71	11

 

 

 

I think with this monda, TFA has to start to be worried....

 

amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[POTUS 2020]

PS multi back up to 5.5 today. 

PS heading to 35m at 1am down 16% from last night. I think the multi gets back to 6x, the norm for most movies. 

210m+/-10m    -12% for tuesday.  A standard drop for a movie thats holding well.