Issac Newton Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Wishing Everyone: Happy Chinese New Year ✨🌼 As for the Box Office, THR says that TBALC II is heavily anticipated/forecast to be the 1st $1.0B (¥6500M) film in single Market. While, Artisans Gateway is expecting a print of $1.3B (¥8000M) - $1.4B (¥8500M) for 2022 Lunar New Year BO. For Comparison: 2017 : $508M 2018 : $871M 2019 : $856M 2020 : $N/A 2021 : $1.2B However, outcome is always tricky as they explained that WOM in Chinese Social Media explain the lead at box office &Frontrunners have been victimized multiple times in early hours of release. Well, we expect an exception for 2022. (Just praying) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MG10 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 (edited) My post on the weekend thread attracted some weirdos so I'll post it here: Usa + Canada The Force Awakens 936M Endgame 858M Avatar 760M No Way Home 736M Black Panther 700M China (not precise at 100%) The Battle at Lake Changjin 911M Wolf Warrior 2 874M Hi Mom 821M Ne Zha 719M The Wandering Earth 694M Usa alone The Force Awakens 841M Endgame 775M No Way Home 684M Avatar 663M Black Panther 641M Edited January 31, 2022 by MG10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, MG10 said: My post on the weekend thread attracted some weirdos so I'll post it here: Usa + Canada The Force Awakens 936M Endgame 858M Avatar 760M No Way Home 736M Black Panther 700M China (not precise at 100%) The Battle at Lake Changjin 911M Wolf Warrior 2 874M Hi Mom 821M Ne Zha 719M The Wandering Earth 694M Usa alone The Force Awakens 841M Endgame 775M No Way Home 684M Avatar 663M Black Panther 641M If we were talking about WW grosses, I would understand the use of the dollars figures done in the moment of the release. But talking about local grosses I see more useful to convert the real lc figure to today ER (6.361). Applying that factor we have this: China 1. The battle at lake Changjin: $908m 2. Wolf Warrior 2: $895m 3. Hi, mom: $851m 4. Ne Zha: $791m 5. The Wandering Earth: $737m 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, peludo said: If we were talking about WW grosses, I would understand the use of the dollars figures done in the moment of the release. But talking about local grosses I see more useful to convert the real lc figure to today ER (6.361). Applying that factor we have this: China 1. The battle at lake Changjin: $908m 2. Wolf Warrior 2: $895m 3. Hi, mom: $851m 4. Ne Zha: $791m 5. The Wandering Earth: $737m "Breaking this to Admits" Maoyan Numbers: Wolf Warrior 2 : 159,984,816 The Battle At Lake Changjin : 124,298,812 Hi Mom : 120,944,011 Ne Zha : 141,085,700 The Wandering Earth : 105,075,344 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, peludo said: If we were talking about WW grosses, I would understand the use of the dollars figures done in the moment of the release. But talking about local grosses I see more useful to convert the real lc figure to today ER (6.361). Applying that factor we have this: China 1. The battle at lake Changjin: $908m 2. Wolf Warrior 2: $895m 3. Hi, mom: $851m 4. Ne Zha: $791m 5. The Wandering Earth: $737m In India, we generally don't care about Gross Amount but whenever we report HLW movie we report Gross = Nett + Tax. Why? Because that's how USA rolls. Now that ball is in CHINA's playground, People in China pay "Booking Charges" like rest of World but no where in world it gets added to the BOX office of Movie except for China (started in 2017.) So To Be Fair, cut those "Service Charge/Booking Charges" of 7% from Chinese grosses or be innovative and Add the amount of "Booking Charges" that US people pay to the US Grosses. Day ain't far when it will be done by someone big in Industry and then, it will become a norm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 So which one you think gonna win CNY? I am think Nice View may be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 (edited) From start, I am expecting Nice View (after you printed your views) but let's see how WGB start. My present target is to see if any one of is making $1.0B in single Market or need to wait for Avatar 2. Edited January 31, 2022 by Issac Newton 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: So which one you think gonna win CNY? I am think Nice View may be. Do any of them have Maoyan ratings yet? Seems like every CNY it’s never the film we expect to be on top, so idk which will be first but I know it won’t be TBALC2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said: From start, I am expecting Nice View (after you printed your views) but let's see how WGB start. My present target is to see if any one of is making $1.0B in single Market or need to wait for Avatar 2. With no ratings is hard to believe, but the initial forecast of Maoyan is: The battle at Lake Changjin 2: 5.971b ($938m) - OD: 813m ($127m) Only fools rush in: 1.911b ($300m) - OD: 249m ($39m) Nice view: 1.658b ($260m) - OD: 240m ($38m) Too cool to kill: 1.344b ($211m) - OD: 213m ($33m) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, peludo said: With no ratings is hard to believe, but the initial forecast of Maoyan is: The battle at Lake Changjin 2: 5.971b ($938m) - OD: 813m ($127m) Only fools rush in: 1.911b ($300m) - OD: 249m ($39m) Nice view: 1.658b ($260m) - OD: 240m ($38m) Too cool to kill: 1.344b ($211m) - OD: 213m ($33m) Overtaking SW:TFA is still a great target. Well, about Ratings, yes it's really doubtful. Maoyan usually update forecast each time it hits above their expectations. (At one point, they said ¥5.17B is the target for TBALC, which made ¥5776M at the end.) Totally, agreeing with your point, but I am just praying that WGB doesn't collapse like DC3 due to negative WOM. In other words, I just really want $1.0B in single market or in fact that ¥6000M benchmark to be crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The GOAT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 $1B is not interesting anymore to me. Need something to do 160M admits and that will be $1.2B with sane tickets. With insane tickets like TBALC 2, $1.4-1.5B. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Question Do we think China could have a film with over 250M admissions by the end of this decade? That would still only be about 18% of the population, which is under the % of the majority of record breaking films in most markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said: Question Do we think China could have a film with over 250M admissions by the end of this decade? That would still only be about 18% of the population, which is under the % of the majority of record breaking films in most markets. 18% is a LOT. Even Japan pre DS was just around 18%. I think 15% is solid enough WW2 doing around 12% I think. That said yes there can be a 200M admits movie, may be a 250M. Need a strong local universal content. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: 18% is a LOT. Even Japan pre DS was just around 18%. I think 15% is solid enough WW2 doing around 12% I think. That said yes there can be a 200M admits movie, may be a 250M. Need a strong local universal content. Roaring current in SK was insane with over 34%, that would be close to 500m equivalent for China. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, pepsa said: Roaring current in SK was insane with over 34%, that would be close to 500m equivalent for China. Titanic DOM 1st run was about 42%. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mau Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Is this Chinese new year poster for NWH official? Or just a fan art? https://m.weibo.cn/status/4731633054517995 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The GOAT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, RiddlerXXR said: Question Do we think China could have a film with over 250M admissions by the end of this decade? That would still only be about 18% of the population, which is under the % of the majority of record breaking films in most markets. Probably. Would require viewings from the rural side though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The GOAT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Nice View is currently at 4th place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, The GOAT said: Nice View is currently at 4th place. Good. That is what CNY winners do. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...