China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

 

$120m?? Seems a bit high but I know next to nothing about the Chinese market

 

Too early unless weekend trend reflects this WOM. But I wont say its impossible until we confirm that one way or other. Its not outrageous for this market. 

[The GOAT]

Noon Time.
Oppenheimer Thursday

$2M

 

it should double from here for $4M+ and beat it’s $3.5M projections.   
 

 

[CM721]

4 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Noon Time.
Oppenheimer Thursday

$2M

 

it should double from here for $4M+ and beat it’s $3.5M projections.   
 

 

Yeah I believe forecast by Maoyan today is underestimated.

 

Wednesday’s actual seems drops to 35.6m yuan.

[Issac Newton]

 

防弹松鼠 Forecast is of ¥300M / $41M. Below AI of Maoyan &Taopiaopiao. But, I think it's on the stop unless we see some serious overperformance against AI Daily Forecast ~

Edited August 31, 2023 by Issac Newton

[keysersoze123]

What has changed since 2019 that it has become a niche fan base. Is it that local movies are way stronger compared to pre COVID or because of US/China conflict, many are put off with Hollywood. Only other thing on my mind is a bad take on what happened during COVID and I want to avoid that.  

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

What has changed since 2019 that it has become a niche fan base. Is it that local movies are way stronger compared to pre COVID or because of US/China conflict, many are put off with Hollywood. Only other thing on my mind is a bad take on what happened during COVID and I want to avoid that.  

I suppose such sudden changes happen only when there is some politics involved. 
 

And the change has really come at end of last year because Summer 2022 titles and before that behaved as you would expect. Jurassic World did what $150M? that’s what it was expected to do. There were GvK and F9 in 2021 and so on.

 

Something happened at end of last year. @Gavin Feng and others on ground would know better about that.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

防弹松鼠 Forecast is of ¥300M / $41M. Below AI of Maoyan &Taopiaopiao. But, I think it's on the stop unless we see some serious overperformance against AI Daily Forecast ~

Oh I think it will def do more than 300M. I haven’t checked Oppy performance here but almost every where Oppy was presales heavy but legged well.

 

Something like

 

38

27

33

55

45 // 198

 

final may be 450M ish? unless there’re some local competition 

Edited August 31, 2023 by across the Jat verse

[The GOAT]

12 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

final may be 450M ish? unless there’re some local competition 

Yes 

[Issac Newton]

Just now, The GOAT said:

Yes 

Sorry it's gone dead with No More Bets. 

 

Edit: it's actually 01.09.2023 not 11.08.2023 as it got delayed.

[Gavin Feng]

Hollywood is like going back to 10 years ago where most movies did somewhere around $50M with few hit $100M. A big reason is these movies lack motion abreaction or transmissibility. Moviegoers may think Barbie / Oppenheimer are good, and that's it. Most of general audience won't go theater just because it's good, because general people have very few attention on movie itself or art.

 

Currently, Chinese economy is pretty bad. Many youth can't have jobs or see their future. But the way it affects the film market is changing the inclination of moviegoers instead of weakening their willingness to go cinema. There has been some big hits this summer. But all of them have some themes of self-protecting. Lost in the Stars is about how women seek justice and put a sleazy man in jail. Never Say Never is saying how people from underclass society can make a living in big cities. No More Bets tells a story about anti-spoofing. 

 

They're not great ones. Far from good level like some Korean realistic stuff. But they did give local audience a space to express their mood and feeling. In public, Chinese people cannot talk about the fact that we're in a bad time under the rule of Xiburger as he strengthen control on thoughts and words. So people use different ways to release emotions and criticize person in power. In internet, we don't say, "China sucks." We say, "Korea sucks", "India sucks", "Myanmar sucks" (setting of No More Bets). And we all know which one really sucks. 

 

Another hit Creation of the Gods has no modern background story, but some people see the king in this film as Xiburger and get killed by his son and successors.

[Issac Newton]

Mayor had a target of ¥60B for 2023 BO. let's just not forget this summer we saw a lot of breakout starting from Lost In The Stars, Never Say Never, Chang An, Creation and now No More Bets also not to forget some fan loaded films like One and Only, Born To Fly &yeah Labour Day release including the prestigious Spring Festival release of Wandering Earth II &Full River Red. 

 

I have posted Imported vs Chinese Quality Chart some pages back &Satisfactory Rate of 2023 Chinese Releases.

 

Also, 2023 is a ground breaking for Japanese Films. When $50M is a pipe dream we had Suzume &SLAM DUNK - doing combine of over $215M+

 

Fast X fall was understandable but MI7 really got stuck between insane Chinese breakout. Atleast, Wonder Family didn't break out or else MI7 was really getting off in 7-Days. 

 

If I remember GOTG3 also did well even when Antman &Black Panther didn't go well

Edited August 31, 2023 by Issac Newton

[Borobudur]

When is summer break over?? I can see the mid-week figure is still quite high across the board. 

[titanic2187]

36 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Hollywood is like going back to 10 years ago where most movies did somewhere around $50M with few hit $100M. A big reason is these movies lack motion abreaction or transmissibility. Moviegoers may think Barbie / Oppenheimer are good, and that's it. Most of general audience won't go theater just because it's good, because general people have very few attention on movie itself or art.

 

Currently, Chinese economy is pretty bad. Many youth can't have jobs or see their future. But the way it affects the film market is changing the inclination of moviegoers instead of weakening their willingness to go cinema. There has been some big hits this summer. But all of them have some themes of self-protecting. Lost in the Stars is about how women seek justice and put a sleazy man in jail. Never Say Never is saying how people from underclass society can make a living in big cities. No More Bets tells a story about anti-spoofing. 

 

They're not great ones. Far from good level like some Korean realistic stuff. But they did give local audience a space to express their mood and feeling. In public, Chinese people cannot talk about the fact that we're in a bad time under the rule of Xiburger as he strengthen control on thoughts and words. So people use different ways to release emotions and criticize person in power. In internet, we don't say, "China sucks." We say, "Korea sucks", "India sucks", "Myanmar sucks" (setting of No More Bets). And we all know which one really sucks. 

 

Another hit Creation of the Gods has no modern background story, but some people see the king in this film as Xiburger and get killed by his son and successors.

 

Not only that. The BO hit lately have a common tone. They all are showing the negative side of the society. Given how terrible China economy is doing and there are much more society problem than government willing to admit, it is not hard to understand why these kind of "society" issue movie found their way to moviegoers, especially during summer break, where the youngster are the most affected group by economic downturn.  

 

[The GOAT]

2 hours ago, The GOAT said:

Noon Time.
Oppenheimer Thursday

$2M

 

it should double from here for $4M+ and beat it’s $3.5M projections.   
 

 

3pm 

$2.88M

[CM721]

15 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

3pm 

$2.88M

I am thinking if it may actually increase from yesterday total 35.7m. Current forecast has risen from 25.9m to 34.5m.

[Issac Newton]

Regional Dominance (Final)

Yesterday Actual were bad. Purple for Opp &Navy Blue for No More Bets.

[Issac Newton]

16 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

As per TTP Forecast, Thursday will be narrow battle -

 

Thursday Forecast (NMB/Opp)

¥32.183M / ¥25.942M - Maoyan 

¥29.014M / ¥28.803M - Taopiaopiao 

 

Maoyan Forecast a finishing line of ¥3.896B for NMB vs ¥3.906M by TPP. For Opp, TPP looking into ¥337M Final. 

TPP currently looking into ¥29.78M for Opp. NMB ¥28.76M. Current BO ¥22M Opp vs ¥15.9M NMB.

[The GOAT]

9 minutes ago, CM721 said:

I am thinking if it may actually increase from yesterday total 35.7m. Current forecast has risen from 25.9m to 34.5m.

Not sure. 2nd place is currently running at a higher pace than Oppy. 3rd place is also getting higher and higher market shares. 

[titanic2187]

Category 3 or 4 super typhoon Saola will make a landfall on Guandong province tomorrow Sep 01, a province where Oppenheimer perform stronger than No more Bets. This could have some impact to tomorrow BO.  

[Issac Newton]

Difference between "Oppenheimer" &"No More Bets" is lowering slowly - Government App.