China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[druv10]

7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Really? That big of a jump? When is the actual opening, how many hours until the first show time? 

Midnight shows start in 9 hrs.

[nVIDIADriver]

7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Really? That big of a jump? When is the actual opening, how many hours until the first show time? 

about 9 hours.

[Olive]

Yes, people are waiting until the last minute to buy tickets since Disney don't provide discount tickets unlike most movies do these days.

Presales picked up, over 150M yuan should be no problem.200M yuan still in doubt, but I won't rule it out.

So you see, don't trust my predictions, they are off a lot always.

[Olive]

12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Really? That big of a jump? When is the actual opening, how many hours until the first show time? 

less than 9 hours till midnight screenings

[FranMan]

11 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Really? That big of a jump? When is the actual opening, how many hours until the first show time? 

 

Gewara only shows the ticket numbers while Maoyan shows the dollar value, so the latter seems more accurate. Maoyan is the bigger site too. So I'm not sure what to make of Gewara's figures.

[#ED]

3 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

Yes, people are waiting until the last minute to buy tickets since Disney don't provide discount tickets unlike most movies do these days.

Presales picked up, over 150M yuan should be no problem.200M yuan still in doubt, but I won't rule it out.

So you see, don't trust my predictions, they are off a lot always.

 

Final pre sale count in about 6 hours?

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said:

Midnight shows start in 9 hrs.

I said when this all started that as long as it hits Jurassic World numbers it does what I had hoped for. @FranMan saying FF7 numbers could (I know a huge long shot either way) come in to play this late in the game astounds me. 

[FranMan]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I said when this all started that as long as it hits Jurassic World numbers it does what I had hoped for. @FranMan saying FF7 numbers could (I know a huge long shot either way) come in to play this late in the game astounds me. 

 

 

Just basing on the Gewara ticket numbers and the rate of pickup for TFA. Maoyan is likely more accurate with its dollar value.

[Olive]

4 minutes ago, #ED said:

 

Final pre sale count in about 6 hours?

I doubt official numbers will be released, we can only see Maoyan's realtime numbers which are not that accurate.

[POTUS 2020]

17 minutes ago, #ED said:

 

Final pre sale count in about 6 hours?

No final announced. It'll just keep tallying on maoyan. I find it consistent to track. 8 to 9am sat morning will give a good idea for the days total

[FranMan]

On 4/11/2015 at 11:35 PM, The Good Olive said:

Saturday(4/11/2015) estimates

#/Title: Daily(yuan)~Total(yuan)~Total($)

1.Wolf Warriors: 46M~412M~$66.4M

2.Furious 7: 34M~34M~$5.5M (midnights)

3.Kingsman: 25.2M~458M~$73.8M

4.Let's Get Married: 21M ~ 259M~$41.7m

5.Insanity: 2.7M~43.5M~$7M

 

*USD total based on current exchange rate( $=6.207 Yuan).

 

Gewara for FF7: 475000 (by midnight)

 

FF7 will debut with 90k showtimes including 10k midnight showings, widest release by beating former record by 60%. TF4's single day record(223m/$35.9M) is down IMO.

 

I dug out this post by Olive for FF7's presale ticket numbers according to Gewara.

 

With still 6 hours still to midnight, the count for TFA is 486152!

 

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

 

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, FranMan said:

 

I dug out this post by Olive for FF7's presale ticket numbers according to Gewara.

 

With still 6 hours still to midnight, the count for TFA is 486152!

 

http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330

 

That is not too relevant. If I am not wrong, the number of theaters tracked for presales is increasing continuously, so the comparison is not exact.

[FranMan]

1 minute ago, peludo said:

That is not too relevant. If I am not wrong, the number of theaters tracked for presales is increasing continuously, so the comparison is not exact.

 

True. Ticket counting without the prices and across platforms as well. Still, rather interesting development.

 

To put it lightly.

[terrestrial]

It was up to people buy them in average 59% as presales in 2015, but Good Olive told at the end of 2015 it already reached ~ 75%, so the tendency seems to be rather prominently increasing

 

I think it's rather interesting, that Disney doesn't do sales promotion for SW 7 beside that being as common in China as it is now.

Bad for people like us who try to estimate, maybe good in general in showing confidence?

Edited January 8, 2016 by terrestrial
typo

[Quigley]

30 minutes ago, peludo said:

That is not too relevant. If I am not wrong, the number of theaters tracked for presales is increasing continuously, so the comparison is not exact.

 

That just means that presales are a smaller percentage of the total presales that are possible, right? Since they are higher in absolute numbers, it means that TFA has a shot at matching FF7's OD. Correct me if I'm wrong, but there is no reason not to hope anymore.

Edited January 8, 2016 by quigquag33

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, quigquag33 said:

That just means that presales are a smaller percentage of the total presales that are possible, right? Since they are higher in absolute numbers, it means that TFA has a shot at matching FF7's OD. Correct me if I'm wrong, but there is no reason not to hope anymore.

I understand it in this way:

presales then had a way smaller part of e.g. OD

As nowadays presales reached ~75% the same presales numbers can mean a way lesser part of walk-ups

= in the sum the same pre-sale tickets reached today should mean a smaller OD

But with SW 7... who knows which rules are still to apply?

Edited January 8, 2016 by terrestrial
adh is not had = typo (I hate my keyboar)

[Aristis]

I do not understand that. Since when there is FF7 OD in play? I thought it would be underwhelming and not more than 200M OD possible

 

Ok, I think I got it: People are waiting for cheaper prices but because they don't come they buy now. So it was unpredictable.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Aristis

[FranMan]

3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I understand it in this way:

presales then adh a way smaller part of e.g. OD

As nowadays presales reached ~75% the same presales numbers can mean a way lesser part of walk-ups

= in the sum the same pre-sale tickets reached today should mean a smaller OD

But with SW 7... who knows which rules are still to apply?

 

Yeah. No ticket value attached to the Gewara presale numbers makes the picture that much more incomplete. 

 

Although the one conclusion we can draw from the number, which is now at 505309, is that TFA isn't as underwhelming as we thought. 

 

 

[peludo]

42 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I understand it in this way:

presales then adh a way smaller part of e.g. OD

As nowadays presales reached ~75% the same presales numbers can mean a way lesser part of walk-ups

= in the sum the same pre-sale tickets reached today should mean a smaller OD

But with SW 7... who knows which rules are still to apply?

This is what I understand. Anyway, let's wait. It is not probable, but I wish everyone was wrong and SW can break in China. It would be the best possible final for this already amazing WW run.

Edited January 8, 2016 by peludo

[Quigley]

Since there are more screens compared to when FF7 was released, the total possible number of presales and total possible number of walk-ups is bigger. This means that the biggest possible OD gross is bigger than when FF7 was released. The fact that SW7 presales are similar to FF7's (and actually slightly higher) just means that SW7 will earn a smaller percentage of the biggest possible opening day.

 

Example (not real numbers)

biggest possible number of presales for FF7: 1M

actual presales: 450K (ratio 0.45)

biggest possible opening day for FF7 based on number of screens: $100M

actual OD: $64M (ratio 0.64)

 

biggest possible number of presales for SW7: 1.3M

actual presales: 450K (ratio 0.346)

biggest possible opening day for SW7 based on number of screens: $130M

prediction for OD: 0.45 ratio for presales gives 0.64 ratio for OD, so 0.346 ratio for presales gives... calculation... 0.492 ratio for OD. 0.492*130= $64M

 

This is theoretical but it just shows that, in a market with a bigger number of screens, assuming the ratio of walk-ups to presales is the same for all movies, equal presales gives equal OD grosses.

Edited January 8, 2016 by quigquag33