China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Any idea when Stalingrad will start losing screens? Today with Escape Plan? Or it will keep them till Thor on November, 8th?

Lose some on Mon, lose most on Fri.

 

 

any Nysm update?? (I hope its already at 22.5mil??)

or a Rush release date???

 

still celebrating Wolvie It did amazeballs  How do u think DOPF will do next year?

NYSM total just over 140M. Run basically closed.

[keysersoze123]

with this schedule how long can thor 2 hang on to its screens and similarly Gravity and CF. I am not sure any of them will break out to its potential. I hope at least 50M each for all 3.

[Leyla]

 

 

NYSM total just over 140M. Run basically closed.

^ thx F

pretty good #

[Olive]

Escape Plan Should open over 15m, possibly 17m.Not good hold for Stalingrad.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

China Box Office Market: A long Term Forecast
Year	Box Office (M/RMB)	Box Office (M/US$)	Change (%)	Screens (Year End)	Theaters (Year End)	IMAX Screens	Attendance (Million)	A.T.P (RMB)	Films Screened	100M+ RMB Grossers	100M+ US$ Grossers	#1 Film (M/$)
2002	950	114.78	6.7%	1834	1019	3	NA	NA	102	1	0	$30
2003	1100	132.9	15.8%	2285	1140	4	40	27.50	100	0	0	$6
2004	1570	189.66	42.7%	2394	1188	4	57	27.54	113	3	0	$19
2005	2046	252.55	33.2%	2668	1243	5	73	28.03	117	1	0	$22
2006	2620	335.56	32.9%	3034	1325	6	95.6	27.41	110	5	0	$37
2007	3327	455.47	35.7%	3527	1427	9	114	29.18	126	7	0	$39
2008	4341	633.72	39.1%	4097	1545	13	141	30.79	109	12	0	$46
2009	6206	908.64	43.4%	4723	1687	22	207	29.98	140	18	0	$69
2010	10172	1529.62	68.3%	6256	2000	31	284	35.82	191	27	1	$209
2011	13115	2046.02	33.8%	9286	2803	76	370	35.45	233	35	2	$175
2012	17073	2731.68	33.5%	13118	3373	112	472	36.17	301	43	5	$201
2013	23000	3680	34.7%	18000	3970	150	630	36.51	300	66	7	$201
2014	30000	4800	30.4%	23000	4800	190	810	37.04	330	90	8	$300
2015	40000	6400	33.3%	28000	5700	250	1060	37.74	360	110	11	$250
2016	50000	8000	25.0%	32000	6500	290	1300	38.46	400	125	15	$300
2017	60000	9600	20.0%	36000	7200	330	1530	39.22	450	140	20	$600
2018	70000	11200	16.7%	39000	7800	360	1740	40.23	480	150	24	$550
2019	80000	12800	14.3%	41500	8400	380	1960	40.82	510	160	27	$600
2020	90000	14400	12.5%	44000	8900	400	2200	40.91	530	170	30	$450
2021	100000	16000	11.1%	46000	9400	415	2420	41.32	550	180	33	$500
2022	110000	17600	10.0%	48000	9800	425	2620	41.98	570	190	35	$500
2023	120000	19200	9.1%	50000	10200	430	2810	42.70	590	200	37	$550

 

Milestones in brief:

 

[*]2002: It all begins. That year first time in China history there were a thing called commercial cinema lines. And that year the quota on box office sharing imported films were lift to 20 from 10.

 

2003: for the first time since depressing middle-late 1990s, the yearly box office climbed back to the 1B RMB mark.

 

[*]2004: the first time there are two 100M+ movies in the same year.

 

2005: yearly box offce climbed over 2B, the highest since 1991.

 

[*]2007: again, the first time since depressing 1990s, the yearly theater admissions climbed back to the 100M mark. And box office was the highest in history with 3.3B RMB.

 

2008: the yearly top 10 movies somehow all did more than 100M RMB, for the first time.

 

[*]2009: yearly attendance hit 200M.

 

2010: there was Avatar. Too many things changed. That year the box office logged probably the biggest yearly increase in China cinema history and crossed historically the 10B RMB mark. That year born the first $100M+ and $200M grosser. And that year everyone learned a word called IMAX.

 

[*]2011: the first time there are two $100M+ movies in the same year.

 

2012: Screens hit historically 10000. More than 100 IMAX screens and the second $200M+ grosser ever. And China became the second biggest box office market in the world.

 

[*]2013: box office crossed the 20B RMB mark. 

 

2014: 30B RMB box office and more than 20000 screens. TF4 is the first $300M+ film.

 

[*]2015: yearly admissions hits 1B, highest in past 20 years. 40B RMB box office, possibly top 10 films all over $100M and top 100 films all over 100M RMB .

 

2016: 5B B.O., over 30000 screens, more than 6000 theaters. Circle-execlusive release and arthouse cinema lines become possible.

 

[*]2017: China is the second biggest film market, all considered. Avatar 2 smashes records.

 

2018: box office hit $10B. Most Hollywood blockbusters are US-China coproductions or so.

 

[*]2019: With more than 4000 screens, China overtake US as the biggest box office market.

 

2020: well over 2B theater attendance. Most Hollywood blockbusters do in China as much as in US/CA.

 

[*]2021: 100B RMB box office, hitorically. Most Hollywood blockbusters do more in China than in US/CA.

 

2022: People go to theaters twice on average yearly. Most Hollywood blockbusters do way more in China than in US/CA, some double. Market begins slow down.

 

[*]2023 & beyond: Nearly $20B box office (by far the biggest one), over 50000 screens and over 10000 theaters, China is almost the #1 film market in the world. The market is basically mature and the yearly increase is less than 10% or lower.

 

No disaster, no War

[efialtes76]

Escape Plan Should open over 15m, possibly 17m. 

That's good?

[Cosmonaut]

That's quite optimistic.

I don't think that the market is so abysmal.

There is forecasts like this one for Russian market, and some experts believe that they are completely wrong and market will stop growing after screen count hit ~3500 mark(x9 for China )...

Edited November 4, 2013 by Cosmonaut

[Olive]

That's good?

very good IMO.

Let's wait and see how Thor will hurt it on Friday.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

That's quite good opening for EP. Still let's see what happens to it this weekend when the real and ever test comes.

 

By estimated Monday:

 

EP --- 17M

Starlingrad ---- 4.5m ---- 55.3m

HT --- 3.5m --- 38.6m

TW --- 1.5m ---- 245m

 

That's quite optimistic.

I don't think that the market is so abysmal.

There is forecasts like this one for Russian market, and some experts believe that they are completely wrong and market will stop growing after screen count hit ~3500 mark(x9 for China )...

It indeed is ...

[Olive]

"The most influential series after Harry Potter and LOTR"

[Olive]

On top of the poster: Best Space Sci-fi of All time- James Cameron

Lol, it makes people think its directed by JC.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

EP Monday outstanding 18.4M yuan. Need to see Friday performance before judging on possible total.

 

For comparison, White House Down opened to 22.5m on July 22, summer, also a Monday, and finished with 173M, facing similar situations (Thor 2 + a bunch of local releases VS FF6 + PR 8 days later).

 

EP --- 18.4M

Starlingrad ---- 3.4m ---- 54.4m

HT --- 2m --- 37m

TW --- 1.2m ---- 245m

Edited November 5, 2013 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

"The most influential series after Harry Potter and LOTR"

So many ads on that poster ...  

[juni78ukr]

Our Kinometro made me laugh today. They wrote that they expect at least $20-25mln more from Stalingrad in China. Also said that Stalingrad grossed more than War Horse and Pearl Harbor. Pearl Harbor in 2001! And they insist on 7000+ screen count.  

[fmpro]

Our Kinometro made me laugh today. They wrote that they expect at least $20-25mln more from Stalingrad in China. Also said that Stalingrad grossed more than War Horse and Pearl Harbor. Pearl Harbor in 2001! And they insist on 7000+ screen count.

[fmpro]

EP Monday outstanding 18.4M yuan. Need to see Friday performance before judging on possible total. For comparison, White House Down opened to 22.5m on July 22, summer, also a Monday, and finished with 173M, facing similar situations (Thor 2 + a bunch of local releases VS FF6 + PR 8 days later). EP --- 18.4MStarlingrad ---- 3.4m ---- 54.4mHT --- 2m --- 37mTW --- 1.2m ---- 245m

The German Stallion will be very very happy to hear that..

[Bob Violence]

The 7,000+ screen count for Stalingrad is being repeated everywhere now. Maybe it's being spread around by Sony International, who IIRC were the same ones to give the bogus opening numbers for Looper (using dollars instead of yuan). And LOL at using Pearl Harbor as a basis of comparison when its total gross was less than big hits earn now on their opening weekends. Pearl Harbor was far and away the biggest mainland grosser of its year, but I'm guessing Stalingrad (as well as it's done for a Russian import) won't make the top 50.

Edited November 5, 2013 by Bob Violence

[juni78ukr]

Even with 71k shows reported by Entgroup you can see that those reports are wrong. 4-5 shows per day x 4 days. 71/20 = 3550.

Maybe 4000-4500 as I estimated and people confirmed here. But definitely not 7000+

 

As for total gross even 2 multiplyer seems nearly impossible to reach now. 4.5 mln Monday would be acceptable, but 3.4m is a very hard drop from last week. 

[vc2002]

On top of the poster: Best Space Sci-fi of All time- James Cameron

Lol, it makes people think its directed by JC.

 

IMO that's a great way to market this film.

[HalloFromGermany]

Numbers from China (for Escape Plan) sound good so far!