China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, Olive said:

If it releases in mid-January, it will have same short-leg run like KFP3 this year.

Chinese New Year's day is on Jan.28, and already 8-10 movies have been scheduled on that day.

That was the other reason I am a bit sceptical, thank you

[bangbingchan]

Your Name already gross ￥10M.it's 3 days before release！

[eXtacy]

Just read this article and found it interesting so I will post it here

 

http://variety.com/2016/film/festivals/afm-2016-china-box-office-slowdown-yields-winners-and-losers-1201922507/

 

Pretty much what I have been thinking that this year is a course correction after a huge jump in 2015.

[Olive]

For the record, Disney has passed the the 6B yuan mark in 2016.

EP7 - 824.5M

Zoo - 1530.1M

TJB - 979.2M

CA3 - 1245.6M

Alice - 387M

FD - 254.1m

DS - 748.1M

Moana - 92.5M

Total:6.06B

Average:757.6M

Edited November 29, 2016 by Olive

[fmpro]

Looks like a good standart 10% drop today. Around 30 mill for FB

[POTUS 2020]

16 hours ago, eXtacy said:

Just read this article and found it interesting so I will post it here

 

http://variety.com/2016/film/festivals/afm-2016-china-box-office-slowdown-yields-winners-and-losers-1201922507/

 

Pretty much what I have been thinking that this year is a course correction after a huge jump in 2015.

They still aren't addressing what I have discovered. BO is limited to A certain percentage of GDP. CBO % at .066 of GDP has hit the upper echelon of established markets. This year's growth will be about 5%, GDP is 6%.  

In domestic 2014, the tentpoles didn't fare well. Only GotG made over $300m.

They did much better in 2015 with AoU 450m, JW 650m and SW7 650m (in 2015) leading the charge and the BO only went up 7.4%.  This year will see 10 movies do 300m+ and the BO will be just 2%. My point is, if better movies come out the BO can improve by a few percent but mostly the money just shifts from the bad to the good. e.g. there will be less 100m+ grosses in in 2015 and 16 then there were in 2014. The better the top ten do, the worse the rest of the pack does do to a finite amount of money the population has.

The BO could be up as much as 10% next year, it could also be down if CNY falls short big time from last Feb. I say flat to up 5%.

They can build more theaters and pour more money into big budgets, which they have for the past year and there were 3 flat quarters in a row, and that says something, there is a ceiling, they don't see it and it's been hit.

 

FB and Moana looking like -5 to -10% DoD

Edited November 29, 2016 by POTUS

[James]

I just hope FB doesn't get swept away by competition. WoM seems to be good. Does anyone know how many what showtimes will FB retain this weekend and how does that compare to DS' second weekend?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, James said:

I just hope FB doesn't get swept away by competition. WoM seems to be good. Does anyone know how many what showtimes will FB retain this weekend and how does that compare to DS' second weekend?

 

 

way worse than Doctor Strange. All the openers during 2nd weekend of strange flopped and so Strange kept above 20% of screens. For now with 40% of showtimes alloted Beast is at 5.3%. it will go up but wont be anywhere close to strange. Plus Your Name is going to break out HUGE. Presales are double of Beast and even bigger than Panda 3 according to Olive !!!!

[Olive]

Tuesday Estimates
Fantastic Beasts  ￥28.5M /344M 
Madame Bovary：￥8.35M/￥349M 
Moana  ￥6.75M /99.1M 
Dective Conan 20:￥1.8M/27m
Dr Strange ￥1.31M/749M
Billy Lynn: ￥1m/￥158M 

[bangbingchan]

around 10~15% for FB 

not too bad，worse than DS 

OD DS 36.6% vs FB 31.8%

FB is weaker than DS from the beginning.Your Name is strong，but FB still has Imax screen.2nd weekend will be okay.And there is no big release next week.85~90M is still on the floor

Edited November 29, 2016 by bangbingchan

[terrestrial]

Box Office Mojo ‏@boxofficemojo 10 minutes ago

China Weekend #BoxOffice: @FantasticBeasts $40.45m; @DisneyMoana $12.29m; I Am Not Madame Bovary $6.37m http://imdb.to/2fId1Kn 

 

BOM allows only up to 19 titles to post in a forum, so here 19 out of 38 listed

 

 

China Box Office November 25–27, 2016 (US $1 = 6.9188 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)

< Prev Wk Currency: Return to Index US Dollars Chinese Yuan Renminbi Next Wk >

TW LW Movie Weekend Gross Change Gross-to-Date Week 1 N Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them $40,455,021 - $40,815,792 1 2 N Moana $12,298,607 - $12,308,175 1 3 1 I Am Not Madame Bovary $6,379,864 -78.3% $48,077,427 2 4 22 Sky on Fire (Chongtian huo) $3,781,740 +16,176.8% $3,843,007 1 5 N Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Meitantei Konan: Junkoku no naitomea) $3,328,063 - $3,336,084 1 6 2 Doctor Strange $1,476,658 -86.7% $107,815,315 4 7 4 Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk $974,938 -72.2% $22,551,223 3 8 N Perfect Imperfection $593,065 - $603,761 1 9 N MIN & MAX $557,019 - $559,606 1 10 - A Chinese Odyssey: Part Three $320,316 - $52,619,096 11 11 32 Pali Road $254,061 +14,125.1% $256,229 1 12 3 Deepwater Horizon $213,910 -94.3% $10,339,727 2 13 N Soul House $174,655 - $174,987 1 14 - Suddenly Seventeen $115,772 - $116,147 -1 15 6 One Piece Film Gold $94,366 -95.5% $15,398,133 3 16 12 Operation MeKong $66,327 -62.3% $170,883,159 9 17 8 Scandal Maker $45,051 -93.0% $8,683,413 3 19 5 Warrior's Gate $39,357 -98.4% $3,274,585 2

 

[fmpro]

Looks like 25-26 mill for FB today 

[Olive]

Wedesday Estimates
Fantastic Beasts  ￥24.8M /370M 

Allied  ￥9.4M OD(mediocre,17% less than Deepwater Horizon)
Madame Bovary：￥8.05M/￥357M 
Moana  ￥5.6M /105M 
Dective Conan 20:￥1.2M/28.2m
Dr Strange ￥0.8M/750M
Billy Lynn: ￥0.8m/￥159M 

[James]

20 minutes ago, Olive said:

Wedesday Estimates
Fantastic Beasts  ￥24.8M /370M 

Allied  ￥9.4M OD(mediocre,17% less than Deepwater Horizon)
Madame Bovary：￥8.05M/￥357M 
Moana  ￥5.6M /105M 
Dective Conan 20:￥1.2M/28.2m
Dr Strange ￥0.8M/750M
Billy Lynn: ￥0.8m/￥159M 

That good for FB?

[eXtacy]

5 minutes ago, James said:

That good for FB?

 

Its a fine number, Doctor Strange did 27m. Looks like it will take a beating on Friday due to new releases so 100m is definitely out. Could still reach 90m.

[peludo]

Presales seem very huge for Your Name. How much should we expect at the end, maybe 700-800m Yuan? or am I being too cautious and it can reach the billion?

 

As a curiosity, if Your Name is able to make $100m in China it would be the 3rd film ever making that amount in both China and Japan. The other 2 are Titanic and Avatar. I have not found any other example (SW7 was very close, though).

[CelestialFairyIX]

6 hours ago, peludo said:

Presales seem very huge for Your Name. How much should we expect at the end, maybe 700-800m Yuan? or am I being too cautious and it can reach the billion?

 

As a curiosity, if Your Name is able to make $100m in China it would be the 3rd film ever making that amount in both China and Japan. The other 2 are Titanic and Avatar. I have not found any other example (SW7 was very close, though).

Exchange rates killed Star Wars.  With current exchange rates, it would be sitting all high and mighty at around $102 million in Japan as opposed to its $96 million. 

[Olive]

Friday showtimes:

Your Name 32.6%, less than 35% I had hoped, without 3D/Imax will limit its potential.

Miss Peregrine 18.7%

Sword Master 16.8%

FB 9.8%,only half of  DS 2nd Friday.

 

Your Name audience will mostly be young people(85% under 29), college students ect.

Edited December 1, 2016 by Olive

[eXtacy]

3 hours ago, Olive said:

Friday showtimes:

Your Name 32.6%, less than 35% I had hoped, without 3D/Imax will limit its potential.

Miss Peregrine 18.7%

Sword Master 16.8%

FB 9.8%,only half of  DS 2nd Friday.

 

Your Name audience will mostly be young people(85% under 29), college students ect.

 

Thats not surprising since its the biggest demo in anime. Be more interesting to see if more females rock up since its heavy on the romance.

[fmpro]

FB is dropping a bit more than i hoped. Around 22 mill today and no big increase tomorrow.

it looks more like 80's total for FB now