China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[peludo]

I know it is already anecdotical, but with 3.4b is already the biggest film ever in China. 11 days...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

12 minutes ago, peludo said:

I know it is already anecdotical, but with 3.4b is already the biggest film ever in China. 11 days...

congrats from Mermaid

[Gokai Red]

Also is now the highest grossing film in a single territory for 2017, beating out BATB's $504.0m from DOM 

[Somoset]

17 hours ago, POTUS said:

It should get the year up 14% YTD aug 31 w/o fees.  WW2  will get local films flat YoY.  HLWDs 5 1B+ films and Dangal are responsible for this years increase.  HLWD will come back to end of aug and should do well with dunkirk, apes and BD. Then locals will have to step up for the october holiday.  Aside from WW2, they are not faring well since CNY.

@POTUS do you think box office fraud where tickets are being bought in mass has contributed to the huge number for WW2? 

 

Without the release of WW2 local titles box office would be in the gutter. With WW2 we'll be much closer to the 51% local to 49% import split mandated in China. Coincidence? 

[Olive]

17 minutes ago, Somoset said:

@POTUS do you think box office fraud where tickets are being bought in mass has contributed to the huge number for WW2? 

 

Without the release of WW2 local titles box office would be in the gutter. With WW2 we'll be much closer to the 51% local to 49% import split mandated in China. Coincidence? 

No, WW2 doesn't need this trick at all.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Somoset said:

@POTUS do you think box office fraud where tickets are being bought in mass has contributed to the huge number for WW2? 

 

Without the release of WW2 local titles box office would be in the gutter. With WW2 we'll be much closer to the 51% local to 49% import split mandated in China. Coincidence? 

I just do projections. @Olive who already answered, and @firedeep among others, know the politics and inner workings of the of the industry

[Polaroids]

Not sure about fraud but I guess it's just a bit shady? Government agencies are requiring their employees to mass-watch screenings of WW2. 

Reminds me of China Post doing the same for The Game Changer back in February.

[Olive]

2 hours ago, Polaroids said:

Not sure about fraud but I guess it's just a bit shady? Government agencies are requiring their employees to mass-watch screenings of WW2. 

Reminds me of China Post doing the same for The Game Changer back in February.

That accounts for very small part of overall box office.

[POTUS 2020]

Tracking 215-220 -8-10%. 

W 197m

T 178m

Friday is looking better as the PS for new releases are not climbing 30-40% daily this week as usual. @firedeep said they must have padded PS early on to get more shows.  WW2 may have 35%+ shows. 150m would be great -43% WoW.  

That would be enough to score 950-1000m for next week and be close to 5000m. 160m will lock 6000m and put SW7, 6320m, at 50-50.

XR was 6.72 for the run thru yesterday. Its now at 6.70.

[setna]

17 hours ago, POTUS said:

Im american living anout the world. In Odessa ukraine right now. 

I ve been following BO since Jaws '75. Started following CBO in this thread 2 years ago when FF7 came out. I just follow revenue patterns and extrapolate as i do with domestic, as well as with the stock market.  Ive learned a bit from @Olive and @firedeep about CBO tendecies along the way.. i like seeing new records broken as i did with Jaws and Stars wars as a kid. I called out last years slow down 2 years ago in the middle of a 50% up year all the while rooting for records to be broken.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18793-what-year-will-china-pass-domestic/

I guess both can happen at the same time.

Thanks for the answer, very interesting.

 

How did you follow the box office of Jaws and Star Wars?  Cause in those years, for sure there wasn´t internet and BOM only have regular data from the 82, maybe Variety?

 

I started to follow regularly BO thanks to Variety, cause a big store in Madrid started to imported at 1997, and with this i could follow weekly the Titanic run, that it was the one which made me really crazy into BO.

 

Let´s where we go with this crazy run of WW2, which is making history!

[Tauren Warlock]

This is fcking insane. That money train could reach $800 million.

[POTUS 2020]

56 minutes ago, setna said:

Thanks for the answer, very interesting.

 

How did you follow the box office of Jaws and Star Wars?  Cause in those years, for sure there wasn´t internet and BOM only have regular data from the 82, maybe Variety?

 

I started to follow regularly BO thanks to Variety, cause a big store in Madrid started to imported at 1997, and with this i could follow weekly the Titanic run, that it was the one which made me really crazy into BO.

 

Let´s where we go with this crazy run of WW2, which is making history!

I would catch the weekly numbers on monday or tueday on the radio or TV. Then USA Today started up in the early 80s and published on mon am and i had a steady source.

I remember a radio announcer saying Jaws could do 100m after its second weekend was virtually flat and lines were around the block. I was like "$100m? Mom this guy is a freaking idiot, itll do at least 200m" 

Nothing has changed in 42 years as two reporters have said WW2 might come in around $500m and you can see my response in earlier posts. 

A touch of aspergers is good for the BO number crunching and the stock market. Also causes a bad habit of calling people idiots as some members here will testify to over the last 3 years.

[POTUS 2020]

23 hours ago, firedeep said:

WW2 drops are getting normalized. 6B may or may not happen, maybe 5.7B finish.

The wave has crested but still holding strong. -43% yesterday and a tremdous -3-4% today as it looks like 230m is happening.  13 days over 200m happening tomorrow. 

 

Now it appears the week will clear 2b up 5% over the first Fri-thur.  I think 6b is a lock with todays hold, but still want to wait and see on Friday.  could valerian be the next domestic bomb that pops in china on the 25th?  that would be ironic if it killed this run but par the CBO course.

 

Nancy is catching up. She mentioned projections up to 5b now. Next monday she might mention 6b when 6.72b/$1b is on the menu.

http://deadline.com/2017/08/wolf-warriors-2-highest-grossing-film-china-all-time-box-office-record-1202144529/#comment-list-wrapper

Given currency swings, the dollar comps are skewed: WW2 has a reported $506M in sales while The Mermaid racked up $527M at historical rates. The current film will nevertheless easily outpace that. Ahead of the weekend, there were predictions of an RMB 3.8B ($565M) finish; those have since increased with some going as high as RMB 5B ($747M).

 

[Michael Seng Wah]

Strong for WW2, wonder if Dunkirk could even gross 30-40mil when it opens in September?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

The wave has crested but still holding strong. -43% yesterday and a tremdous -3-4% today as it looks like 230m is happening.  13 days over 200m happening tomorrow. 

 

Now it appears the week will clear 2b up 5% over the first Fri-thur.  I think 6b is a lock with todays hold, but still want to wait and see on Friday.  could valerian be the next domestic bomb that pops in china on the 25th?  that would be ironic if it killed this run but par the CBO course.

 

Nancy is catching up. She mentioned projections up to 5b now. Next monday she might mention 6b when 6.72b/$1b is on the menu.

http://deadline.com/2017/08/wolf-warriors-2-highest-grossing-film-china-all-time-box-office-record-1202144529/#comment-list-wrapper

Given currency swings, the dollar comps are skewed: WW2 has a reported $506M in sales while The Mermaid racked up $527M at historical rates. The current film will nevertheless easily outpace that. Ahead of the weekend, there were predictions of an RMB 3.8B ($565M) finish; those have since increased with some going as high as RMB 5B ($747M).

 

at current rate, WW2 will probably just edge out 6B when all is said and done.

 

--------

Valerian CHINA > DOM should happen. I am thinking $50~60m-ish for it. still not a breakout though. Baby Driver could have similar potential actually.

Edited August 8, 2017 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

48 minutes ago, Michael Seng Wah said:

Strong for WW2, wonder if Dunkirk could even gross 30-40mil when it opens in September?

easily imo

 

Btw, man, what happened to you? you look strong.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

haven't see any box office cheating for WW2. Its money is real.

[Gavin Feng]

TUE

before service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  210.3m / 3,384m

Once Upon a Time  -  21m / 447.8m

The Founding of an Army  -  8.1m / 330.9m

Despicable Me 3  -  1.71m / 953.6m

 

after service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  226m / 3,631m

Once Upon a Time  -  22.5m / 477.6m

The Founding of an Army  -  8.65m / 349.8m

Despicable Me 3  -  1.85m / 1,020m

[Aristis]

How about Valerian (China) > SW VIII (China)? Is that possible, probable? Or pretty much unpredictable?

[Gavin Feng]

China Box Office
Wolf Warrior 2
Day	Date		Rank	Gross		% - YD	% - LW	Gross-to-Date	Day #	Weekly Gross	% - Change
				RMB / M	USD / M			USD / M		USD / M
Previews	Jul. 27		1	¥102.06	$15.15	-	-	$15.15	0	$147.91	-
Fri	Jul. 28		1	¥214.68	$31.87	-	-	$47.02	1
Sat	Jul. 29		1	¥312.61	$46.41	-1.30%	-	$93.43	2
Sun	Jul. 30		1	¥367.02	$54.49	17.41%	-	$147.91	3
Mon	Jul. 31		1	¥272.99	$40.53	-25.62%	-	$188.44	4	$321.74	117.52%
Tue	Aug. 1		1	¥292.52	$43.42	7.15%	-	$231.87	5
Wed	Aug. 2		1	¥278.98	$41.42	-4.63%	-	$273.28	6
Thu	Aug. 3		1	¥227.83	$33.82	-18.34%	-	$307.10	7
Fri	Aug. 4		1	¥265.43	$39.40	16.51%	-16.20%	$346.51	8
Sat	Aug. 5		1	¥404.52	$60.05	52.40%	29.40%	$406.56	9
Sun	Aug. 6		1	¥425.02	$63.10	5.07%	15.80%	$469.66	10
Mon	Aug. 7		1	¥241.87	$35.91	-43.09%	-11.40%	$505.56	11
Tue	Aug. 8		1	¥226.00	$33.55	-6.56%	-22.74%	$539.11	12