China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

now what would be the approx final SA gross acc to u!?

Hard to say. too many variables with JW, locals opening, holiday, summer coming and screen count. Holding near flat to OD means it would be a runner and go to $150m+ in other markets. But this is china. Should be in the mid 80s by sunday. $110m-130m

 

so is it enuf to make $30 for this week(mon to sun)???

More than enough. F7 had a $28m weekend with 16%.

looking for $32-36m for the week

[seduh]

great number for SA, If it doesn't collaps against JW then $100 is a lock. I hope JW gets to $200

[Jaybee]

Hard to say. too many variables with JW, locals opening, holiday, summer coming and screen count. Holding near flat to OD means it would be a runner and go to $150m+ in other markets. But this is china. Should be in the mid 80s by sunday. $110m-130m

More than enough. F7 had a $28m weekend with 16%.

looking for $32-36m for the week

if this happens then its more than double of the pre release projected gross! Terrific! Hope JW will have a great week too! Edited June 9, 2015 by Jaybee

[POTUS 2020]

SA 2% ahead of yesterday at 14:00

 

Here are a few scenarios for JW. I might be able to tell which track its on by Thursday or friday afternoon. My guess for now is between 4 and 5. Really no Idea until we know how good the movie is and Chinese WOM which can reveal itself in just 2 days as it did with both AOU having immediate sharp declines(1.5 OW mult) and SA holding dead on flat(2.0+ OW mult?).

 

 

Doomed		OD	OD x M	OW(5d)	OW x M	Total	$Total
Worst Case	0	90	5.00	450	1.60	720	116
	1	90	5.50	495	1.75	866	140
Mixed WOM	2	110	5.25	577.5	1.70	982	158
	3	130	5.00	650	1.65	1073	173
	4	90	6.20	558	2.00	1116	180
Good WOM	5	110	6.00	660	1.95	1287	208
	6	130	5.80	754	1.90	1433	231
	7	90	7.00	630	2.25	1418	229
Great WOM	8	110	6.80	748	2.20	1646	265
	9	130	6.50	810	2.15	1742	281
Crazy
Best Case	10	150	7.00	812	2.50	2030	327

 

 

 

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

dbl post

Edited June 9, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[Jaybee]

If it can gross 5m today then SA will get more percentage of screens. JW will be doing more than good if it can fall into 5+ category in ur analysis. if at all the opening is not great WOM can do wonders like SA

Edited June 9, 2015 by Jaybee

[POTUS 2020]

If it can gross 5m today then SA will get more percentage of screens. JW will be doing more than good if it can fall into 5+ category in ur analysis. if at all the opening is not great WOM can do wonders like SA

looking like 5m again. With losing approx half its screens it should still do at least 3m tomorrow. then do 3mTh. 4.2F, 7.8S, 6Su for a 34m week.

If it can do closer to 4m tomorrow then it could do closer to 40m which would be a sick hold.

[Jaybee]

looking like 5m again. With losing approx half its screens it should still do at least 3m tomorrow. then do 3mTh. 4.2F, 7.8S, 6Su for a 34m week.

If it can do closer to 4m tomorrow then it could do closer to 40m which would be a sick hold.

losing half of its screens, is it possible to pull more than 3m? If JW wom is positive then will it go further down?? Edited June 9, 2015 by Jaybee

[Olive]

SA Monday 34.5M, higher than its OD without midnights.

[Olive]

JW gewara will be tough to reach 100k, a big surprise.

 

But presales on other platforms are much better, still think it will open higher than 100M yuan

[abra]

JW gewara will be tough to reach 100k, a big surprise.

 

But presales on other platforms are much better, still think it will open higher than 100M yuan

 

Are there any other parties outside gewara that lead Ticket ? 

[Olive]

Are there any other parties outside gewara that lead Ticket ? 

we can check reserved seating on some cinemas official site.

[Olive]

Wednesday showtimes

JW  55%

SA  18.5%

Doraemon 13.5%

PK 3.8%

[sgchn40]

we can check reserved seating on some cinemas official site.

Wow! You must really like this movie!

[Olive]

Wow! You must really like this movie!

I do like Jurassic Park series, but I have yet to see JW, I don't know whether it good or bad.

 

But I do like tracking box office, not only for this movie.

[POTUS 2020]

losing half of its screens, is it possible to pull more than 3m? If JW wom is positive then will it go further down??

FF7 was able to pull in 31m/$5m with 16% screens on a Thursday day before a holiday and 67m/$10.8m on Friday(holiday) while up against 2 local openers totaling $40-50m for the weekend. $3m shouldn't be a problem.

 

3m would be just a 40% drop.  AOU lost 45% from Monday 15.8m to Thursday 8.4m when 2 movies opened  on tues and 1 on Thursday. The 3 combine weren't as strong  as JW or fully direct competition but AOU wasn't as strong as SA either. The evenings are tremendous so I would say T-REX isn't  100% direct competition either with the older audience.

 

SA continues to stay 2-3% ahead of yesterday which came in at a revised 34.5m/$5.56m. Wants to breach 35m/$5.7m. That'll be the biggest weekday of the run I believe. Its like the Chinese condensed version of MBFGW   or maybe closer to Gravity. Where the WOM keep the big fat numbers pumped up instead of BO gravity pulling them down

Edited June 9, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[Bishop54]

Where has Olive been?

[Jaybee]

FF7 was able to pull in 31m/$5m with 16% screens on a Thursday day before a holiday and 67m/$10.8m on Friday(holiday) while up against 2 local openers totaling $40-50m for the weekend. $3m shouldn't be a problem.

3m would be just a 40% drop. AOU lost 45% from Monday 15.8m to Thursday 8.4m when 2 movies opened on tues and 1 on Thursday. The 3 combine weren't as strong as JW or fully direct competition but AOU wasn't as strong as SA either. The evenings are tremendous so I would say T-REX isn't 100% direct competition either with the older audience. .

Ty.fingers crossed for today's estimates.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

With bad reactions rolling in, it looks JW is not beating AOU in China after all. Maybe will do just 1B-ish.

 

Next week SPL2, a potential #100m grosser, will do a lot of damage to dinos. Online buzz for the sequel is crazily high. The first SPL was pretty incisive. (If you like HK gangster action thrillers, then you might want to give it a check.) But I am still not convinced by the quality of this one with the absence of Donnie Yen.

 

$100m is locked for SA.

Edited June 9, 2015 by firedeep

[Bishop54]

What bad reactions?