China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

Its gotto to have the presales and with that a big OD or it wont pass $200m w good WOM. WOM is great when it has months to rack up the numbers but with local openers taking up showtimes it wont have time to leg out. SA could do $100m with just a $5m OD, smaller numbers can be gotten from remaining showtimes. IDK if JW could match that performance with a $10m-20m OD and get to 200m if the greater amount of showtimes will be needed in 2 -3 weeks.

 

If its less opening day hype but wants to be strong on WOM then it will need to play out like SA at a much larger scale

115m/19m Wed

95m/15m Thur much stronger hold than TA2 after much smaller OD, doubt it will hold flat like SA

140m/22m Fri  TA2 and SA type pop on the weekend

240m//36m Sat

170m/38m Sun

 

$130m total for 5 day is possible. Im thinking $100m+/-10m though

[grim22]

Saturday estimates:

1). San Andreas, ￥88M/ cume: ￥242M ($39M)

2). Stand by Me Doraemon, ￥38M/ cume: ￥424M ($68.4M)

3). Avengers: Age of Ultron , ￥8M / cume: ￥1448M ($233.4M)

4). P.K., ￥6M / cume: ￥97.4M ($15.7M)

5). Tomorrowland , ￥3.5M / cume: ￥108M ($17.4M)

Doraemon Chinese gross has beaten its home market.

PK may end up out grossing Tomorrowland. Amazing result for it and awful result for Tomorrowland.

[abra]

Gewara

03.06.2015 Beijing time 02:50 -- JW - 151

03.06.2015 Beijing time 13:50 -- JW - 280

03.06.2015 Beijing time 17:50 -- JW - 401

03.06.2015 Beijing time 22:50 -- JW - 584

04.06.2015 Beijing time 02:20 -- JW - 697

04.06.2015 Beijing time 11:10 -- JW - 949

04.06.2015 Beijing time 13:50 -- JW - 1128

04.06.2015 Beijing time 16:20 -- JW - 1349

04.06.2015 Beijing time 20:20 -- JW - 1618

04.06.2015 Beijing time 23:00 -- JW - 2020

05.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 2122

06.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 4008

06.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 6889

07.06.2015 Beijing time 18:20 -- JW - 10027

 

a slight acceleration in sales

Edited June 7, 2015 by abra

[keysersoze123]

One thing going in JW favor is screen allocation. Its going to get something similar to F7 or AOU levels.

 

Olive/Firedeep,

    Is JW getting 2d release as well or is it exclusively 3d?

[POTUS 2020]

Gewara

 

 

a slight acceleration in sales

Nearly double from this time yesterday.

I assume it needs to get over 100k if there is going to be a sizable OD

Anybody know of any hype/anticipation? Have other potential $200m movies had presales this low in the last 12 months?

SA going to hold much better than a TA2 sunday,  -12 to -18%, 74m-78m.  SA mite put a dent in JW in stead of the other way around

[Olive]

One thing going in JW favor is screen allocation. Its going to get something similar to F7 or AOU levels.

 

Olive/Firedeep,

    Is JW getting 2d release as well or is it exclusively 3d?

Just 3D.

[keysersoze123]

Nearly double from this time yesterday.

I assume it needs to get over 100k if there is going to be a sizable OD

Anybody know of any hype/anticipation? Have other potential $200m movies had presales this low in the last 12 months?

SA going to hold much better than a TA2 sunday,  -12 to -18%, 74m-78m.  SA mite put a dent in JW in stead of the other way around

 

Only thing is SA will lose huge chunk of screens. So Not sure how it will impact JW. I am basing it based on early screen allocations at http://piaofang.maoyan.com/#pageCont=playPlanContent. Its saying 81% of screens for JW while SA will have just 8% of screens. I am sure the number will go down for JW and go up for SA but the impact will still be huge.

[Olive]

Sunday estimates:

1). San Andreas, ￥77M/ cume: ￥316M ($50.9M)

2). Stand by Me Doraemon, ￥29.3M/ cume: ￥453M ($73M)

3). Avengers: Age of Ultron , ￥7M / cume: ￥1455M ($234.5M) 

4). P.K., ￥5.2M / cume: ￥102M ($16.4M)

5). Tomorrowland , ￥3.3M / cume: ￥111M ($17.9M)

[abra]

Gewara

03.06.2015 Beijing time 02:50 -- JW - 151

03.06.2015 Beijing time 13:50 -- JW - 280

03.06.2015 Beijing time 17:50 -- JW - 401

03.06.2015 Beijing time 22:50 -- JW - 584

04.06.2015 Beijing time 02:20 -- JW - 697

04.06.2015 Beijing time 11:10 -- JW - 949

04.06.2015 Beijing time 13:50 -- JW - 1128

04.06.2015 Beijing time 16:20 -- JW - 1349

04.06.2015 Beijing time 20:20 -- JW - 1618

04.06.2015 Beijing time 23:00 -- JW - 2020

05.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 2122

06.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 4008

06.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 6889

07.06.2015 Beijing time 18:20 -- JW - 10027

08.06.2015 Beijing time 00:05 -- JW - 11885

that is, on 08.06.2015 about 5000

in spite of everything except a small disappointment compared to the AOU and F7

but we'll see 10.06.2015

[Jaybee]

What would be the final gross of SA??? Any possibility to reach $75m+ with just 8% of screening from wednesday?

[jiangsen]

From BoxOffice.com's Global Report 

 

San Andreas rocked the global box office again this weekend, holding on to the top spot with $97.8 million from ~22,590 screens across 68 markets. The Dwayne Johnson vehicle has grossed $188 million overseas and $287.06 million globally. San Andreas opened well across Asia with China accounting for an estimated $34 million over the weekend and $51 million since its opening Tuesday. Despite public health concerns over MERS, South Korea came in at #1 with $7.2 million from 843 screens, and Hong Kong shook up $2.2 million for 71% of the weekend box office from 85 screens. 

 

Doraemon Stand By Me continued its surprising run in China this weekend with $13.43 million for a total of $73 million after 11 days of release. Doraemon's China haul has now surpassed its entire Japanese run ($66.7 million) and sits as the third highest grossing animated film of all-time in China behind Big Hero 6 ($84.63 million) and Kung Fu Panda 2 ($94.75 million). 

 

Mad Max: Fury Road guzzled down an additional $11 million this weekend from ~6,270 screens in 70 international territories. The well-received action flick from Aussie George Miller is up to $184 million overseas and $315 million globally. Top ten markets are: South Korea ($2.5 million/$27.2 million cume), UK/Ireland ($1.2 million/$24.1 million cume), Australia ($1.2 million/$14.7 million cume), France ($1.05 million/$15.5 million cume), Brazil ($994K/$10.4 million cume), Germany ($518K/$8.2 million cume), Russia ($374K/$12.9 million cume), Mexico ($279K/$7.7 million cume). There is still no confirmed released for China.

 

Bollywood hit PK held well again in China this weekend, dropping 40% for $2.21 million and $16.4 million after 17 days of release. The comedy starring Aamir Khan beat out Tomorrowland despite playing on fewer screens. 

[samsha22]

Gewara

03.06.2015 Beijing time 02:50 -- JW - 151

03.06.2015 Beijing time 13:50 -- JW - 280

03.06.2015 Beijing time 17:50 -- JW - 401

03.06.2015 Beijing time 22:50 -- JW - 584

04.06.2015 Beijing time 02:20 -- JW - 697

04.06.2015 Beijing time 11:10 -- JW - 949

04.06.2015 Beijing time 13:50 -- JW - 1128

04.06.2015 Beijing time 16:20 -- JW - 1349

04.06.2015 Beijing time 20:20 -- JW - 1618

04.06.2015 Beijing time 23:00 -- JW - 2020

05.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 2122

06.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 4008

06.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 6889

07.06.2015 Beijing time 18:20 -- JW - 10027

08.06.2015 Beijing time 00:05 -- JW - 11885

that is, on 08.06.2015 about 5000

in spite of everything except a small disappointment compared to the AOU and F7

but we'll see 10.06.2015

08.06.2015 Beijing time 10:35 -- JW - 13417

[POTUS 2020]

Only thing is SA will lose huge chunk of screens. So Not sure how it will impact JW. I am basing it based on early screen allocations at http://piaofang.maoyan.com/#pageCont=playPlanContent. Its saying 81% of screens for JW while SA will have just 8% of screens. I am sure the number will go down for JW and go up for SA but the impact will still be huge.

they really need to do a better job with screen allocation. SA is obviously a runaway WOM hit. They lose a lot of money on the weekend not giving enough screens to movies that deserve it. I don't give a shit about whats new this weekend, when I go, its about quality. They better wise up, because the Chinese movie goers will and decide to forego a movie on the weekend if the movie they want is not playing nearby that opened just a week prior.

with only 8% it wont have that much impact on JW, but still some moviegoers may opt for SA that may have otherwise gone for JW

[POTUS 2020]

What would be the final gross of SA??? Any possibility to reach $75m+ with just 8% of screening from wednesday?

FF7 managed to make $28m with 16% of screens in it 3rd weekend. It was a holiday. With great WOM and demand still there in a big way, sunday was amazing, I could see it do 12-14m next weekend plus 8-10m midweek. I think 70m-75m is possible by next sunday, 80m+ for a final. Anything higher would depend on keeping screens down the road.

 

10x OD for 6 day OW has got to be a record for an OD Y30m or more. Impressive

Edited June 8, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[Asyulus]

$75M for SA is locked.

[Jaybee]

@lawrence and @novathron thankyou for the info

[POTUS 2020]

@lawrence and @novathron thankyou for the info

YW

 

Holly shit, sales for SA on piofang are at the same level at 14:00 as they were Thursday. Usually a movie drops 33-50% Thursday to Monday. Its looking to be flat to down 20% depending on the evening. It may be close to $60 by tomorrow. $75m locked by the weekend

 

Its going to have the biggest Monday of all movies in all markets today at $4-5m. They have to up the show times a little bit with this number, doesn't look like JW is going to have 200m+ yuan OD that would deserve 80%+ show times.

Edited June 8, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[Jaybee]

YW

Holly shit, sales for SA on piofang are at the same level at 14:00 as they were Thursday. Usually a movie drops 33-50% Thursday to Monday. Its looking to be flat to down 20% depending on the evening.

Its going to have the biggest Monday of all movies in all markets today at $4-5m. They have to up the show times a little bit with this number, doesn't look like JW is going to have 200m+ yuan OD that would deserve 80%+ show times.

thats very impressive!!! Edited June 8, 2015 by Jaybee

[Jaybee]

So it means SA can do a business of $4.5m atleast today(monday)??? Thats really huge. Can SA get more percentage of screens on wednesday like around 12-15% of screens!?? Is that practically possible?

[POTUS 2020]

08.06.2015 Beijing time 10:35 -- JW - 13417

20400 at 15:00. Its finally accelerating. may triple up today