China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

I guess your chosen term ~ 'crap'... made that clear  

I think if someone really likes or dislikes something, it can influence even a really good / cool thinking analyst to a 0.something percentage/degree

I like following BO and the stock market.  I don't care about the product. It's the numbers and predicting outcomes. I like the galaxy better, but I've owned apple stock.

Sequels prequels remakes reboots and more sequels to follow. Yes rehashed crap. The big short, revenant,  sicario. That's what I watch.

I enjoyed the first SupM in 78. First batman in 89. Spider in 02 and IM in 08. I stopped watching sequels during 90s w  BM. Ticket sales are dying in established markets. Time to get creative again. 

Edited January 13, 2016 by No Prisoners

[peludo]

1 hour ago, TommyA10 said:

So 1200 movies released in 2014 and pretty much the same number of tickets sold as in 1997 when only 600 movies were released.

Well, population has increased barely in 2 million since 1995 (127 vs 125). It is basically the same number of tickets per person and year. And the fact that there are more films do not imply that biggest films are less attended. It can imply that there are more films that nobody see. A good example is that the second biggest film ever has been released less than 2 years ago. Or the fact that TFA is selling more tickets than previous episodes, just excepting TPM and not too far, something that can be seen as pretty normal.

 

BTW, if you want to answer to this post, we can continue in this thread (http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates/), since this conversation has no sense here.

[Cynosure]

36 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

I like following BO and the stock market.  I don't care about the product. It's the numbers and predicting outcomes. I like the galaxy better, but I've owned apple stock.

Sequels prequels remakes reboots and more sequels to follow. Yes rehashed crap. The big short, revenant,  sicario. That's what I watch.

I enjoyed the first SupM in 78. First batman in 89. Spider in 02 and IM in 08. I stopped watching sequels during 90s w  BM. Ticket sales are dying in established markets. Time to get creative again. 

 

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Cynosure said:

 

 

 

Man, where did you dig that up? Was one of my favorite shows to watch in the 70s. He was complaining about 5 films in that year, not dozens like today. Hes rolling over in his grave now. 1 remake (king Kong 43 years later not 10 years like spidey) and 1 sequel (dirty Harry was the man) were in the top ten. 8 were in the top ten in 2015. 13 of top 20.

 

Pre-sales only down 5% today. 

2pm will be midpoint of sales. 

Yesterday was dead on

Edited January 14, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Cynosure]

49 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Man, where did you dig that up? Was one of my favorite shows to watch in the 70s. He was complaining about 5 films in that year, not dozens like today. Hes rolling over in his grave now. 1 remake (king Kong 43 years later not 10 years like spidey) and 1 sequel (dirty Harry was the man) were in the top ten. 8 were in the top ten in 2015. 13 of top 20.

 

Pre-sales only down 5% today. 

2pm will be midpoint of sales. 

Yesterday was dead on

 

I remembered seeing it somewhere a few years ago, had to do some memory digging to find it.

 

I agree with you about the oversaturation of the market with sequels and remakes, I've already said it a few times. I just found it interesting to mention how far the criticism goes back in that regard.

[IronJimbo]

4 hours ago, terrestrial said:

I guess your chosen term ~ 'crap'... made that clear  

I think if someone really likes or dislikes something, it can influence even a really good / cool thinking analyst to a 0.something percentage/degree

Reminds me of myself.

When doing the numbers for Avatar 2 I rounded up numbers instead of down, I couldn't help it. Through thousands of calculations I have Avatar 2 making $3.8B WW instead of $3.7B WW due to really liking James "Iron Jim" Cameron.

[hw64]

22 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Reminds me of myself.

When doing the numbers for Avatar 2 I rounded up numbers instead of down, I couldn't help it. Through thousands of calculations I have Avatar 2 making $3.8B WW instead of $3.7B WW due to really liking James "Iron Jim" Cameron.

 

God I'm glad you post on these forums.

[POTUS 2020]

29 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Reminds me of myself.

When doing the numbers for Avatar 2 I rounded up numbers instead of down, I couldn't help it. Through thousands of calculations I have Avatar 2 making $3.8B WW instead of $3.7B WW due to really liking James "Iron Jim" Cameron.

3.8B? You and Kal remind me of spicoli

 

to keep on topic jeff, what is your estimate for china?

it did 14% of the BO in 2010 at $200m

If the BO is $10b in 2017, will it do 1.4B? or just $700m or?

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

3.8B? You and Kal remind me of spicoli

 

 

to keep on topic jeff, what is your estimate for china?

it did 14% of the BO in 2010 at $200m

If the BO is $10b in 2017, will it do 1.4B? or just $700m or?

 

My heart is telling me 22 trillion but I'll have to go with my brain on this one,so I'm calculating 900m, Avatar 4 will make $1.5b.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

"Bad" news spreads fast, lol ...

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS NOT EXPECTED TO OUTGROSS AVATAR, TRANSFORMERS 4, OR AVENGERS 2 IN CHINA

http://ap.ign.com/star-wars-episodes-vii/95442/news/star-wars-the-force-awakens-not-expected-to-outgro

[TalismanRing]

Fast?  Wasn't this obvious by at least Sunday?    It might not out gross M15

[Fake]

So it will be at 495m ($75m) after Thursday.

 

Can it get further 165m ($25m) to hit $100m this weekend?

 

I guess with big jumps (40/70/55), it might be possible, but seems unlikely.

 

I'm thinking around $20-22m (35/60/45).

[POTUS 2020]

44 minutes ago, Fake said:

So it will be at 495m ($75m) after Thursday.

 

Can it get further 165m ($25m) to hit $100m this weekend?

 

I guess with big jumps (40/70/55), it might be possible, but seems unlikely.

 

I'm thinking around $20-22m (35/60/45).

It's on pace for a better hold today at 29-30m .

Hard to tell how big the jumps will be with additional screen loss on both Fri and sat. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

11 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

It's on pace for a better hold today at 29-30m .

Hard to tell how big the jumps will be with additional screen loss on both Fri and sat. 

Is $150 million USD still in play for a final total or have the drops started too much already?

[Polaroids]

I suspect that Disney's marketing for the film in China did more to hurt it than help it - getting a teen idol with a large, mostly really young and adolescent, fanbase to be the main ambassador for the movie just isn't appealing to most moviegoers and in fact might have turned off the "younger moviegoers in third- and fourth-tier cities, the demographic fueling China’s booming box office and the target of Disney’s marketing bonanza" because it's "uncool". They might have fared better with an established and known celebrity with the "cool" factor to draw in that particular crowd. Imagine Justin Bieber of 5 years ago heavily promoting a film - would the public take it seriously? No.

 

Not that a celebrity endorsement would help a lot but again, what they chose to do might have hurt the movie's chances a bit.

[FranMan]

11 minutes ago, Polaroids said:

I suspect that Disney's marketing for the film in China did more to hurt it than help it - getting a teen idol with a large, mostly really young and adolescent, fanbase to be the main ambassador for the movie just isn't appealing to most moviegoers and in fact might have turned off the "younger moviegoers in third- and fourth-tier cities, the demographic fueling China’s booming box office and the target of Disney’s marketing bonanza" because it's "uncool". They might have fared better with an established and known celebrity with the "cool" factor to draw in that particular crowd. Imagine Justin Bieber of 5 years ago heavily promoting a film - would the public take it seriously? No.

 

Not that a celebrity endorsement would help a lot but again, what they chose to do might have hurt the movie's chances a bit.

 

I think the misstep was having Lu Han as the only ambassador, which led to the misreading of his social media popularity for the anticipation of the movie. Should have included one or two more celebs which would appeal to a wider demographic, like the power couple Deng Chao and Sun Li.

Edited January 14, 2016 by FranMan

[Fake]

26 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Is $150 million USD still in play for a final total or have the drops started too much already?

$150M is dead.

 

$140M is dead.

 

$130M is dead.

 

$125M is probably also dead.

 

$120M will be a good total from here.

[sgchn40]

2 minutes ago, FranMan said:

 

I think the misstep was having Lu Han as the only ambassador, which led to the misreading of his social media popularity for the anticipation of the movie. Should have included one or two more celebs which would appeal to a wider demographic, like the power couple Deng Chao and Sun Li.

 

Deng Chao and Sun Li isn't exactly in good light these days with the widely panned Devil and Angel. While Sun Li's new TV drama had high viewership, the reviews are not exactly balmy. They probably need President Xi to watch the show and say that it is nice.

[POTUS 2020]

32 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Is $150 million USD still in play for a final total or have the drops started too much already?

Fake is about right. Looking like 115-120now

[FranMan]

1 minute ago, sgchn40 said:

 

Deng Chao and Sun Li isn't exactly in good light these days with the widely panned Devil and Angel. While Sun Li's new TV drama had high viewership, the reviews are not exactly balmy. They probably need President Xi to watch the show and say that it is nice.

 

Ah, I see. Didn't know that their popularity dipped. Thanks.