China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[peludo]

30 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Mar 8 holiday? PS are bigger than today already. Zoo bumped 90% last year.

 

Dog going to be close to flat today. 

Second weekend likely to increase WoW.

Maybe it tries for $100m

 

W3 trying for minus 13-14% DoD. 31-32m

I thought I was the only one who is more interested in Dog's run than in Logan's. I get why people are more interested in Logan's final number, but its run seems quite predictable. But Dog's one is great to follow.

 

Does it really have a chance to make $100m? It would be astonishing 

Edited March 7, 2017 by peludo

[Gavin Feng]

Tuesday estimates
 
before service charges
Logan  -  27.9m / 371.5m
A Dog’s Purpose  -  19.9m / 147m
Resident Evil 6  -  10.8m / 913.7m
xXx  -  1.06m / 1,040m
La La Land  -  890k / 220.4m
Lego Batman  -  810k / 24.5m(RIP)
Sing  -  510k / 180.5m
 
after service charges
Logan  -  30.4m / 407.5m
A Dog’s Purpose  -  21.2m / 162m
Resident Evil 6  -  11.5m / 979.1m
xXx  -  1.15m / 1,089m
La La Land  -  960k / 233.5m
Lego Batman  -  870km / 26.4m(RIP)
Sing  -  550km / 192.9m

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, peludo said:

I thought I was the only one who is more interested in Dog's run than in Logan's. I get why people are more interested in Logan's final number, but its run seems quite predictable. But Dog's one is great to follow.

 

Does it really have a chance to make $100m? It would be astonishing 

Dog is getting more interesting. It'll make 220m it's first week with a Friday open of 24m. If Thursday holds close 20m,  Friday will bump over 30m for a 25%+ WoW increase. Total would be 470-500m by next Thursday.  It should get into the 600s and get close to 688m/ $100m depending how beastly BatB is.

Edited March 7, 2017 by POTUS

[fmpro]

14% drop today is good for Logan. Not great not horrible.. Tomorrow should see a 30%+ increase..

Logan is also higest in presale FFS and should retain a lot of screens and lock 100 mill$

[TigerPaw]

Dog's purpose is killing it.

I see it beating Logan's weekdays by next week. Surprise hit. Obviously not going to be as big as Zootopia but its numbers really impresses.

[jiangsen]

23 hours ago, peludo said:

I thought I was the only one who is more interested in Dog's run than in Logan's. I get why people are more interested in Logan's final number, but its run seems quite predictable. But Dog's one is great to follow.

 

Does it really have a chance to make $100m? It would be astonishing 

Maoyan predicting Dog to overtake Wolf at box office today. Pretty close with few hours to go so if not today, def tomorrow. Hachi is huuuge over there and cute animals are universal. Makes sense why china is lapping (sorry!) this up. 

[robertman2]

That's most random movie to break out over there.

[Gavin Feng]

Maybe comic book movies are saturated in China. Look forward very much to GOTG2 performance.

[peludo]

I am a bit confused. Both cbooo and Maoyan say that XXX3 is already at 1.119b Yuan, but it does not fit if yesterday it was at 1.089b and today it has grossed a bit over 2m Yuan so far. And something similar happens to Resident Evil. Both webs are wrong? or do I have missed something?

[Olive]

16 minutes ago, peludo said:

I am a bit confused. Both cbooo and Maoyan say that XXX3 is already at 1.119b Yuan, but it does not fit if yesterday it was at 1.089b and today it has grossed a bit over 2m Yuan so far. And something similar happens to Resident Evil. Both webs are wrong? or do I have missed something?

Since sevice fee is counted to total BO, the numbers some times can't match each other on different platforms sometimes, but they will be the same when the re-count is done.

And some additional grosses are added to RE6 and XXX afer re-counting ,they have passed 1B and 1B already respectively.

[Gavin Feng]

Wednesday estimates
 
before service charges
Logan  -  40.2m / 412m
A Dog’s Purpose  -  37.75m / 184.4m
Resident Evil 6  -  16.3m / 930.3m
La La Land  -  2.64m / 223.1m
xXx  -  1.95m / 1,042m
Lego Batman  -  1.58m / 26.1m
Sing  -  1.5m / 182m
 
after service charges
Logan  -  43.8m / 451.9m
A Dog’s Purpose  -  40.2m / 202.8m
Resident Evil 6  -  17.4m / 1,003m
La La Land  -  2.85m / 240.7m
xXx  -  2.1m / 1,119m
Lego Batman  -  1.7m / 28.15m
Sing  -  1.62m / 196.3m

[fmpro]

2 hours ago, jiangsen said:

Maoyan predicting Dog to overtake Wolf at box office today. Pretty close with few hours to go so if not today, def tomorrow. Hachi is huuuge over there and cute animals are universal. Makes sense why china is lapping (sorry!) this up. 

 

Logan has a big lead i presales for thursday. So i doubt it will do it. Maybe on friday

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, fmpro said:

 

Logan has a big lead i presales for thursday. So i doubt it will do it. Maybe on friday

Yup. Dog was close today because of the holiday, family bumps bigger than SH. W3 will hold through Friday. Dog's Saturday bump may overtake W3 and keep ahead going forward.

BatB only going up at 30% per day. Still could beat TJB 80m OD. Got to start bumping 40-50% daily this weekend.

[FantasticBeasts]

China is such a mess lately.. Those random movies breaking out while having bombed everywhere else.

Edited March 8, 2017 by FantasticBeasts

[fmpro]

34 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Yup. Dog was close today because of the holiday, family bumps bigger than SH. W3 will hold through Friday. Dog's Saturday bump may overtake W3 and keep ahead going forward.

BatB only going up at 30% per day. Still could beat TJB 80m OD. Got to start bumping 40-50% daily this weekend.

 

Agree.. Logan is headed for a 45% ish drop on thursday. Around 23-24 is my best guess atp..

 

Lets see what happens on fri. Best we can hope for i guess is around flat from thursday?

 

[peludo]

54 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

China is such a mess lately.. Those random movies breaking out while having bombed everywhere else.

I think it is funnier to follow. You can never know what will be a success or what will fail. It was becoming boring that always the same films could win.

Edited March 8, 2017 by peludo

[Mrstickball]

3 hours ago, peludo said:

I think it is funnier to follow. You can never know what will be a success or what will fail. It was becoming boring that always the same films could win.

 

I enjoy the Chinese market immensely.. I follow weekdays far more in China than the US, unless there's a specific movie I really want to look at. 

 

To me, the Chinese market is the American market taken to the logical end, in that bad movies are killed immediately, and good movies can build unfathomable WOM in a matter of days. 

 

These are my personal set of rules when looking at the Chinese market:

 

• They like movies that I do not. The Chinese BO desires escapism, and deep, profound Anglo-centric movies really don't cross over to the general Chinese market very well.
• Chinese BO culture has already built up franchises and actors to incredible levels in a very short period of time.. Arguably guys like Vin Diesel have great careers ahead of them if only for China.
• Franchises that are old to Americans but new to Chinese aren't received as well, and expectations need to be tempered (Hello Star Wars!)
• WOM makes or breaks movies within 2 days, and weekday holdovers for movies will, more or less, explain the rest of the movie's run.
• Despite the 30-day limit on movies, very, very few movies make much after the limit, so its not something to be concerned about unless its a mega-movie that pulls over $300m that may lose a few million at the tail end. Hacksaw Ridge had a fanciful Chinese run and got extended, but made maybe $2-3m off of that extension.
• Pre-sales are insanely important for the initial weekend run, but little else can be gauged off of that (Warcraft and RE:TFC come to mind). 
• Don't expect your favorite niche movie to get a sequel thanks to a Chinese run.. There are a lot of movies that never get approved (will China ever get John Wick 2?)
• Movie protectionism can kill whatever movie you hold dear, so don't bank on movies just before the protected periods.
• Chinese moviegoers hate crappy movies, regardless if they are domestic or foreign. Nothing can save a movie like Buddies in India. Crappy can be subjective, though. See: Transformers.

 

Any other comments on what to look out for on gauging Chinese BO runs?

[DAJK]

I don't know at all how to calculate multipliers in China, but @Olive does Logan have a shot at 800? Or Dogs Purpose at 400? Weekdays for the latter seek strong, where do you think they'll end up?

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I don't know at all how to calculate multipliers in China, but @Olive does Logan have a shot at 800? Or Dogs Purpose at 400? Weekdays for the latter seek strong, where do you think they'll end up?

Logan-NO

Dogs-YES

[POTUS 2020]

7 hours ago, fmpro said:

 

Agree.. Logan is headed for a 45% ish drop on thursday. Around 23-24 is my best guess atp..

 

Lets see what happens on fri. Best we can hope for i guess is around flat from thursday?

 

The openers are weak. W3 will keep 2/3s+ of its screens. Should bump 20 -40%