China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Releasing 50 films per year that gross at least $15.7 million

2019 already had 47 of those, now with inflation, not really a target to achieve for next 5 years.

9 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Local films accounting for more than 55% of total box office per year

Local films already account for 60%+ in 2019, why will they reduce it?

9 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

"They don't need Hollywood to fill seats anymore," Fenton said. "'The Battle at Lake Changjin' can do that."

Yeah we saw how many seats local fills outside of the 90 days of CNY, Golden week and summer blackout.

 

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah we saw how many seats local fills outside of the 90 days of CNY, Golden week and summer blackout.

This is really the key. Sure the 5B hits are fun. A few megamonsters a year with plenty medium-medium small is a healthy market. A few megamonsters+rest small-tiny is not.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am happy if local BO is thriving. Box office for Hollywood movies must be secondary. Thriving local business would ensure thriving economy with so many jobs created. Japan also was dominated by western movies in early noughties. Now local movies are dominating BO. India also is dominated by local movies. 

Most of Asia will reclaim its box office dominancy. India there is no chance for Hollywood, China always stayed above 50%, Korea was 51% in 2019 vs 45% in 2010, and usually stay above 50% now. Japan stay above 50% as well.

 

SEA locals shall start dominating the space soon. This year a local Vietnamese movie doubled the gross of Endgame, leaving top spot probably out of reach now for Hollywood.

[Issac Newton]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am happy if local BO is thriving. Box office for Hollywood movies must be secondary. Thriving local business would ensure thriving economy with so many jobs created. Japan also was dominated by western movies in early noughties. Now local movies are dominating BO. India also is dominated by local movies. 

From Superman to Titanic, after Spirited Away, no foreign films got chance to be all-time number 1. Also in terms of Annual Box Office, Foreign films barely crossed ¥1000M in Japan. (No. Of Films passing ¥1000M is now less than 5 in last two years). Still some like Frozen &Alauddin has iconic runs.

[Issac Newton]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Local films already account for 60%+ in 2019, why will they reduce it?

It's an assumption. If % went below 55% then Hollywood release will be blocked out (as I think) to balance or increase the dominance of Domestic films.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Eternal Legion said:

This is really the key. Sure the 5B hits are fun. A few megamonsters a year with plenty medium-medium small is a healthy market. A few megamonsters+rest small-tiny is not.

And like not really fun ones with now what seems like are pumped collection. I lost interest in Lake Changjin when that low online booking thing came up.

 

The % online gross of recent few biggies.

 

WW 2 - 84%

Detective Chinatown 2 - 87%

Wandering Earth - 88%

 

Lake Changjin - 84%

 

Hollywood

F8 - 86%

Infinity War - 89%

Endgame - 91%

 

When the online booking of films is increasing, Lake Changjin is decreased to 84%.

[Jamiem]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am happy if local BO is thriving. Box office for Hollywood movies must be secondary. Thriving local business would ensure thriving economy with so many jobs created. Japan also was dominated by western movies in early noughties. Now local movies are dominating BO. India also is dominated by local movies. 

Was it though? Spirited Away was the biggest film in Japan until recently and that came out in 2001, Howls Moving Castle (2004) and Bayside Shakedown 2 (2003) are also still in the top 10. I think the 2000s was just a time that the Japanese box office was very strong both in terms of local and Hollywood films. 

 

China seems to be a bit different than Japan but also not as local film dependant as India in that they are rapidly growing local film attendance but Hollywood (and other imports) are more flat/mild growth. 
 

But I do agree with overall sentiments that local productions do allow for a lot more money in the local economy which is one of the great things streaming has done for non-Hollywood production, Korea for instance has been a boom with lots of investment from Netflix, Disney, Apple and Local players like Wavve, TVING etc. investing in shows/movies. I imagine IQIYI and Tencent Video are driving growth in local spend in China on top of theatrical investments.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Was it though? Spirited Away was the biggest film in Japan until recently and that came out in 2001, Howls Moving Castle (2004) and Bayside Shakedown 2 (2003) are also still in the top 10. I think the 2000s was just a time that the Japanese box office was very strong both in terms of local and Hollywood films. 

 

China seems to be a bit different than Japan but also not as local film dependant as India in that they are rapidly growing local film attendance but Hollywood (and other imports) are more flat/mild growth. 
 

But I do agree with overall sentiments that local productions do allow for a lot more money in the local economy which is one of the great things streaming has done for non-Hollywood production, Korea for instance has been a boom with lots of investment from Netflix, Disney, Apple and Local players like Wavve, TVING etc. investing in shows/movies. I imagine IQIYI and Tencent Video are driving growth in local spend in China on top of theatrical investments.

Corpse mentioned it in his Japan thread at KJ. overall BO hollywood was slightly higher than local movies back then. But the tide has turned big time. Its not just about movie owning the record. 

[Legion Again]

It’s tricky to talk about what is dominating the market because you have both # of films and size distribution of those films. Personally I feel that a market where there are like 20 locals with avg gross 20lc (max 50) and 100 imports with avg gross 6lc (max 18) would be more “dominated by locals.” But if you just look at market share it would say 60% import.

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Corpse mentioned it in his Japan thread at KJ. overall BO hollywood was slightly higher than local movies back then. But the tide has turned big time. Its not just about movie owning the record. 

Yeah pre-2000s dominance was by Hollywood films. First, Princess Mononoke held the record for a short time before Titanic. (Before that it was E.T. : ¥13.5B at 1983)

[charlie Jatinder]

In the beginning Japan local film dominated but in 70s Imports breached 40%, and in 1975 first time over 55% to peaking at 70% in 1998 and then in 2002 at 73%, immediately followed by darastic decline.

http://eiren.org/statistics_e/index.html

Gross

Edited November 23, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In the beginning Japan local film dominated but in 70s Imports breached 40%, and in 1975 first time over 55% to peaking at 70% in 1998 and then in 2002 at 73%, immediately followed by darastic decline.

http://eiren.org/statistics_e/index.html

This was exactly what Corpse posted. So hollywood was > 50% until mid 2000s. Now its share is going down. Of course lack of uber break out is affecting it even more in covid and this small theatrical window has further destroyed BO with Japan refusing to release movies that hit streaming too soon. 

[Jamiem]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In the beginning Japan local film dominated but in 70s Imports breached 40%, and in 1975 first time over 55% to peaking at 70% in 1998 and then in 2002 at 73%, immediately followed by darastic decline.

http://eiren.org/statistics_e/index.html

Thanks for this, much easier to see with data. 
 

To @Eternal Legions point though from 2000-2005 there was more import than local films whereas from 2010-2019 there was more local films than import so that likely played a part.

 

Also fascinating to see how many more films get released was ~600 in the early 2000s vs. ~1200 in the late 2010s.

[Issac Newton]

Lack of Scientific Logic, marketing issues, Premier Access (Streaming) &declining fanbase are major reasons behind unexpected decline of Imported Films.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Also fascinating to see how many more films get released was ~600 in the early 2000s vs. ~1200 in the late 2010s.

Releasing films got cheaper with digital prints.

[The GOAT]

More Screens for Avatar 2? Sweet.    

   

On a side note, What happens if they run out of War movies to make?   

Their popularity seems to be on par with superhero movies in the US.   

  

They should really make another movie like Hero (2002). 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

On a side note, What happens if they run out of War movies to make? 

Simple. Start new wars and make movies about them.

[Legion Again]

“Battle of Taiwan” 10B here we come

Edited November 23, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[The GOAT]

29 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

They should really make another movie like Hero (2002). 

Pretty much a superhero movie  

 

[Issac Newton]

47 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

“Battle of Taiwan” 10B here we come

On the other day, Gavin mentioned $10B /1.3B admissions for Avatar 2 at it's forum. I guess in 2022, China will potentially defeat US exponentially.

 

I forgot one more masterpiece arriving: "Wolf Warrior 3" in near future.

Edited November 23, 2021 by Issac Newton