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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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Obviously IM3 OD hugely inflated by holiday opening and delayed-demand. It was just like a ferocious volcanic eruption. Silent come quick gone. The Thursday drop already confirms that. $150M from China is not happening. Even $130M is not certain, though very likely to be where it will end, at the moment. 

 

Had it opened on Apr 29, it probably would not break any record. But it would likely do 200M yuan more from 29th and 30th combined, based on its May 1 performance. Most holiday audience turned to So Young when IM3 was not around. That is to say, the compaign from So Young caused some 200M yuan loss for IM3 at the box office. $150M for IM3 would have been well locked had it opened 29th. Still, record is a record, better than nothing. You see how IM3 smashes on its opening day, you know why (pre-)holiday openings for Hollywood big movies are rarely allowed by SARFT.

 

However I believe IM3 will behave more like a weekend movie, like most Hollywood movies. One big general difference between Hollywood movies and local movies at the China box office: the former weak workdays strong weekends, the latter good workdays weaker weekeneds.

 

We will have a clear picture about where exactly IM3 will finish with by next Monday.

Edited by firedeep
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POLYLOVE Sleeper Hit

POLYLOVE

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Obviously IM3 OD hugely inflated by holiday opening and delayed-demand. It was just like a ferocious volcanic eruption. Silent come quick gone. The Thursday drop already confirms that. $150M from China is not happening. Even $130M is not certain, though very likely to be where it will end, at the moment. 

 

Had it opened on Apr 29, it probably would not break any record. But it would likely do 200M yuan more from 29th and 30th combined, based on its May 1 performance. Most holiday audience turned to So Young when IM3 was not around. That is to say, the compaign from So Young caused some 200M yuan loss for IM3 at the box office. $150M for IM3 would have been well locked had it opened 29th. Still, record is a record, better than nothing. You see how IM3 smashes on its opening day, you know why (pre-)holiday openings for Hollywood big movies are rarely allowed by SARFT.

 

However I believe IM3 will behave more like a weekend movie, like most Hollywood movies. One big general difference between Hollywood movies and local movies at the China box office: the former weak workdays strong weekends, the latter good workdays weaker weekeneds.

 

We will have a clear picture about where exactly IM3 will finish with by next Monday.

Agree.

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Lordmandeep Global Phenomenon

Lordmandeep

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It seems today IM3 is holding well, looks 55% drop from OD.

 

 

Lol Firedeep and Fake have like Bi Polar or something...

 

They either say the movie is smashing all record then one bad sign they are chicken little :)

 

Nonetheless, I love the numbers they provide.

 

Also whats the actual numer 19.5 or 21.1?

Edited by Lordmandeep
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zenithtim Indie Sensation

zenithtim

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Lol Firedeep and Fake have like Bi Polar or something...

 

They either say the movie is smashing all record then one bad sign they are chicken little :)

 

Nonetheless, I love the numbers they provide.

 

Also whats the actual numer 19.5 or 21.1?

 

21.5: http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2013-05-01-china-iron-man-3-sets-new-record-for-midnight-shows

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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UPDATE & Analysis: IM3 VS SY

 

Based on early estimates, here is what Thursday numbers looks like:

 

    [*]IM3 52M -57% (there is possibility that actuals falls to 50M) [*]So Young 26M -34% [*]Croods 5M -69%

 

Normal drop fro Croods from a holiday to a working day. After 12 days, its cume gross stands at 186M $30M, already edging past KFP2 to become the biggest non-sequel animation in China.

 

Fantastic hold for So Young. After 6 days run, its cume sits around 345M yuan. Should reach 470M by this Sunday (11 days total). With 50% weekly drop from there, it could finish its run with no less than 730M+ yuan, maybe even pushed to $120M. Good enough to give IM3 a close run. So Young is like one of the most commercially successful local movies one could ever make. First directorial debut from a top actress, Low budget, huge media buzz, huge returns. The marketing for it sure is a bit disgusting, but you cant deny its huge numbers.

 

Then how about that daily drop for IM3 ? It is actually better than the Sun-Mon drop of TA (-66%), though Monday was TA's 3rd day, not 2nd one. In term of percentage, that IM3 2nd day drop (-57%) is by no means the biggest one (Local ROM-COM Holding Love dropped 80% off its Tanabata Day debut last summer). However, in term of gross, IM3's OD-2nd day decrease (68M) is the biggest day-to-day one ever, by a large margin, greatly exceeding that Sun-Mon one of Titanic 3D (former record, 92m-36M, 56m, -60%). The previous record before Titanic 3D was TF3 Sun-Mon decrease (99m-49M, 50m, -50%).

 

With the estimated 52M Wednesday number, this is possibly what IM3 will do through the weekend:

 

 

    [*]Wed 121M [*]Thu 52M -57%  [*]  [*]Fri +15% 60m [*]Sat +66% 99m [*]Sun -20% 80m

 

412m $66.5m 5 days opening. However, if the Wed number turns out to be just at 50M, then IM3 could struggle its way to 400M $64M opening.

 

Then what about next ? Well, considering there will be at least one big opener every weekend from next week, lets just take a -55~57% weekly drop for the next 4 weeks of its run. You will get 720M ~740M $115~118M total.

 

Exactly like I said, it is still unclear which one of So Young and IM3 will do more in total at the moment. Really a close horse run. And if either one of the two doesnot performance conspicuously well or bad over the next few days, we probably wont know the match result until the end of their run. That will be the middle of June.

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