China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Quigley]

It's official:

http://www.digifilm.com.cn/movie_issue/index

 

They will hurt each other. All being visual feasts, probably all gonna sort of underperform.

 

Trans4mers won't underperform. Being the last on the list, it won't suffer from post-release competition. And it is guaranteed to open higher than the others. Even in North America, usually the last movie on a long list will have better holds than the rest, even if it has a lower opening weekend. For example, Planes last summer opened lower than Smurfs 2 and Turbo (both had 5-day openings), but it out-grossed both of them in the end.

[Olive]

Thursday est

Overheard 3  28M  od Including 1M midnights

DOFP  21M  359M  not so good 

[zackzack]

$1B WW is expected. Looks to repeat & give what TF3 had done. Pirates 4 has a lousy story, that OS gross still hit $800M, it's just insane this franchise thing. People tend to love familiar heroes. But how far can you go? Will Pirates 5, if green lit at all, go to Deathly Hallows 2's fantastical $960M OS?

[Quigley]

Week chart for X-Men:DOP please?

[Sam]

On Thursday, DOFP and Overheard 3 almost have same amount of showtimes.Which does better, which will have the bigger screens this weekend.

Thursday estOverheard 3  28M  od Including 1M midnightsDOFP  21M  359M  not so good

Well, that answers it. That's a bit anticlimactic tbh thought they would closer to each other.Thanks for the quick update as always Olive!

[Quigley]

$1B WW is expected. Looks to repeat & give what TF3 had done. Pirates 4 has a lousy story, that OS gross still hit $800M, it's just insane this franchise thing. People tend to love familiar heroes. But how far can you go? Will Pirates 5, if green lit at all, go to Deathly Hallows 2's fantastical $960M OS?

 

I don't think NA will honor the alien robots like it did for previous instalments. I doubt it will get to $300M. And if anything, Europe's contribution will fall dramatically. It's up to Latin America (not so much) and Asia (minus Japan) to save it, but I'm not convinced it will happen. I say NA: $260M and outside NA: $720M for WW $980M. Pirates 5 has big potential but only if it is a good film. I think many fans (including me) were disppointed with the 4th so unless the next one is very good, many will avoid watching it (ticket-price inflation and the booming Chinese market can still help it reach $1B, but no one can say for sure).

[alee7915]

Thursday est

Overheard 3  28M  od Including 1M midnights

DOFP  21M  359M  not so good 

 

where's the fan blinkblink fans in China?  

[mfantin65]

                                              Ski Trail to 300+

                                $350,000,000  

 

This projection is with 10% average drops which has yet to materialize in the run. 

Spirited Away starts comparing to Frozen at week three due to its big midweeks it had during 7weeks of summer. This comparrison is for the long leg battle. SA numbers have been converted to current exchange rate.

 

With the way Frozen has performed I see it keeping pace with SA and I'm calling it a lock, I just don't see it fading hard with the post GW hold.

 

Old school! E.T was the last entry into the top for admission pre VCR. It is the number one straight runner upon initial release. Star Wars had expansion help the following summer. One can argue this is the all time #1 movie stateside. Lets see how frozen holds its weekend drops compared to E.T. and if it can catch up. It had 12 weeks summer boost to start and ran for 52 weeks without major a re-expansion

 

#        E.T.             Spirited Away                       Frozen

     WE    %   TOT       WE    %  Week TOT   MW WE      Week   TOT

1  11.800     11.800                                        7.531     9.731   9.731

2  12.400 +6  34.400                                11.300  8.550+13 19.800 29.535

3  13.700 +9  58.500   10.000 10.000 10.000   13.400  8.569 +1 22.000 51.579

4  12.700 -7  82.500    9.500 -5 32.000 42.000   15.300  8.238 -5 23.500 75.100

5  12.800 +0 106.900    8.700 -8 29.500 71.500    7.800  8.286 +1 16.000 90.600

6  13.000 +2 129.400  9.200 +6 34.500  106.000    5.900 8.046 -3 14.000  104.800

7  11.300-13 150.500    8.700 -5 24.500  130.500     5.900  7.558 -6 13.400  118.400

8  10.400 -7 169.500    8.800 +1 16.200  146.700   14.100 11.100+48 24.900 144.400 GW Bump

9   9.500 -9 186.700    6.700-24 22.200  167.100 15.800  7.200-36 23.000  167.400 Summer/GW-Over

10  8.400-11 202.000    6.800 +1 15.100  182.200     6.000  7.900+10 13.900  181.300 Leg battle!

11  7.700 -9 215.700    6.400 -6 13.100 195.300     6.150  6.850-13 13.100  194.300 Actual #

12  6.600-14 227.400    5.000-20 12.500  207.800     5.500  6.400    11.800  206.100 estimate

13  6.000 -9 237.000    4.300-14 11.000  218.800     4.800  5.700    10.500  217.600 Oct/June

14  4.600-24 244.700    3.900 -9  6.500  225.300     4.300  5.100     9.400  227.000

15  4.303 -7 250.600    2.600-33  4.400  229.700     3.700  4.600     8.300  235.300

16  4.000 -4 256.000    2.600 -0  4.700  234.400     3.300  4.200     7.500  242.500

17  3.700 -9 261.100    3.200+22  5.900  240.300  2.900  3.800     6.700  249.200 Nov/July

18  3.800 +1 266.000    2.900-10  5.900  242.200     2.600  3.400     6.000  255.200

19  3.300-12 270.600    1.900-34  3.900  250.100 4.500  3.100     6.600  262.800 Summer Bump FR

20  3.200 -2 274.800    1.800 -6 3.200  253.300     4.100  2.800     6.900  269.700 

21  2.800-15 278.600    2.500+35  3.800  257.100 3.700  2.500     6.200  275.900 December SA

22  3.099+10 282.600    1.500-40  3.200 260.200     3.400  2.200     5.600  280.500

23  2.940 -3 286.700    1.100-27  2.100 262.300     4.500  3.000     7.500  288.000 Obon Bump FR

24  2.880 -2 290.300                               2.700  1.800     4.500  292.500  

25  4.000+38 296.000                                 2.400  1.600     4.000  296.500

26  2.400-40 299.000                                 2.200  1.500     3.700  300.200

27  2.000-14 301.500                                 1.900  1.400     3.300  303.500

28  2.600+27 305.000                                 1.700  1.200     2.900  306.400 Summer Over

42  Ext Run  359.000     Extended Run    294.000     Extended Run            330.000+ ???  

 

Its holding tighter than either of them. The only real drops were after bumps. only down 20% from week 2. ET down 41%. SA down 55% from weekend two. The weekly average drop is just 3% from week 5. The current week looks like its going to come in flat at 13.1m, not the 11.8 I estimated a few days ago.

 

 

Okay people. Time for another Frozen Japan BO challenge. We had a pre and post GW contest, now we have sick weekly holds and a run you may never see again. These holds still make it difficult to pin down a final number at week 12 and that's what makes it fun and not a time to be conservative.

 

This is not a revision. The first two rounds stay intact, although I feel they're decided.... and I won them both  

Take the week to contemplate it, due by 1200 Tokyo saturday, 11pm ny friday. This could be months before its decided, if you're all not too low. We have yet to have a regular(non holiday) week over week 10% drop. The current week is looking at 12m+. Will it be 8, 12, 16 or 20 times that? Aim high and stay in the game until New Year.

Round 1 April 25th                   Rnd 2 May 10          Rnd 3 may 29

mfantin .............314.800                 325.000               ???.???

SamComedian                        272.000

Boxx93........ ......260                    265.000               300.000

Kingslayer..........250                    275.000

KZ-boy                                                    340.000

Henry II                             262.000

Quigley                             255.000                303.000

Chucky ..............240                    252.252

ZackZack                            250.000

Omni .................225                    245.000                375.000

Song of Iceroll. .222

Ray.....................215                    273.000                316.000

Spizzer...............215                                           315.000

Edroger..............210

Queen Elsa........210                                           280.000

Ball Lightning.....210

Incaradine..........207                    250.000               368.061.266

Rsyu...................205

Tong Kosong......203                    245.000               318.000

Gokai Red                                                  317.800

Murgatroyd.........200                    258.000

Keysersoze.........200                    225.000

Hans13............. .195                    228.000               305.000

DamienRoc........193,435,058              266.972               321,176,421

Catlover..............190                    255.800

Olive Max...........188.4

Chasmmi............187

Cynosure ...........185

Ray subers.........175 "200 is absurd"         IDK, a lot               500.000 BOM total if the dollar  crashes

corpse ...............170 "never break 244"       200.000               300.000 50/50 never say never!

Labas.................170

‏@giteshpandya ..150                    at 194m "going to blasting thru 200!" - no shit

Lab276 ..............147

Winner is closest dollar amount away from final number. up or down. np penalty for going over. Aim high aim true!

First prize is ray subers job♣

Second place is Gitesh Pandya's job

Third place, a set of steak knives,

 

To prevent the currency rate from coning into play,  the final total will be yen total divided by 102.12, the average rate during the run thus far.

New people welcome.

# 1 All-time run happening for a foriegn or local film in a foriegn market. No movie has surpassed $300m, sorry China you'll get there soon. Frozen is looking to be the first and perhaps out perform all other other movies in any market released this year including domestic.

350 is my lock. It could "crash" or soar higher.

Whats your prediction?

Edited May 29, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Fake]

Shitty number. Hope it recovers tomorrow.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

 

# 1 All-time run happening for a foriegn or local film in a foriegn market. No movie has surpassed $300m, sorry China you'll get there soon. Frozen is looking to be the first and perhaps out perform all other other movies in any market released this year including domestic.

350 is my lock. It could "crash" or soar higher.

Whats your prediction?

 

NVM

Edited May 29, 2014 by firedeep

[Fake]

What is the current all-time #1 movie in China and what's the gross?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

What is the current all-time #1 movie in China and what's the gross?

Avatar 1.38B rmb.

[Fake]

Wasn't there a movie recently which did 1B+?

[Sam]

DOFP should pull ahead tomorrow, right? Since opener normally jump less, even if it's Friday?

[Emirazza]

Shitty number.Hope it recovers tomorrow.

What's happening? 

[Samarus]

What's happening? 

Maybe the Chinese are dissappointed, because they don't get enough Fan Bingbing in the movie?

[a2k]

asm2

4/5：61.14

5/5：36.33
6/5：34.32
7/5：28.32
8/5：23.95 (184.06 total) (dofp - 21; day 7; 359 total. lead of 175 over asm2)
9/5：38.90（+62.4%）
10/5：75.02（+92.9%）
11/5: 51.91（-30.4%）
12/5：16.41

13/5：16.66
14/5：14.28
15/5：13.23
16/5：19.30（+45.9%）
17/5：38.85（+101.3%）
18/5：30.97（-20.3%)

 

asm2 was 576m on wed(28th may). so adding thrusday(which i believe is it's last day? not sure) it will be at 578m.

so with a lead of 175 over asm2, 700 still looks likely for dofp. needs 341m more. asm2 added 394m after it's 1st thursday.

 

those who know follow chinas bo and know more about it..thoughts?

Edited May 29, 2014 by a2k

[TalismanRing]

Week chart for X-Men:DOP please?

 

Mon - Thur

33.5/ 33/ 27/ 21

[TalismanRing]

Numbers are hard to compare since Spider-Man opened on Sun so it's 2nd w/e was it's first full w/e.  It also seemed to play more like a family/children's film - smaller weekdays, bigger weekends. 

 

Right now DOFP is tracking about 30m y behind CA2 and with a 21m vs 24m Thur.  CA2 though had the benefit of a Monday holiday and DOFP has a holiday coming up. DOFP though seems to have more competition with Rio 2 and Transcendence under performing against ASM2. 700 is still possible, can't see it doing less than 650.

 

When is DOFP scheduled to leave theaters?

Edited May 29, 2014 by TalismanRing

[alee7915]

Maybe the Chinese are dissappointed, because they don't get enough Fan Bingbing in the movie?

Her name is Fan Blinkblink not Fan Bingbing

Edited May 30, 2014 by Sexercize