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iceroll

Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

By iceroll, in Numbers and Data

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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I am legend opened in similar weekend back in 2007 and dropped 57%. It had very small midnights. Alvin dropped 36.4%. I would say hobbit will drop like 40-45% minus midnights. so with 90M OW it will make 44-47M in its 2nd weekend. I dont see it make 4x legs. Most probably it will make around IAL legs.

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lab276 Global Phenomenon

lab276

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I am legend opened in similar weekend back in 2007 and dropped 57%. It had very small midnights. Alvin dropped 36.4%. I would say hobbit will drop like 40-45% minus midnights. so with 90M OW it will make 44-47M in its 2nd weekend. I dont see it make 4x legs. Most probably it will make around IAL legs.

It's certainly more kid friendly than IAL, and I don't see why it should perform significantly worse than Tron Legacy.
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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It's certainly more kid friendly than IAL, and I don't see why it should perform significantly worse than Tron Legacy.

I compared with IAL because 2007 maps the best with 2012. Even if you look at Tron, it dropped like 56%+ in its 2nd weekend. Plus January was weak that year. Both Tron and True Grit had a strong run. Hobbit will probably do that but with bigger OW and big midnight its multi will suffer.
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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

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I compared with IAL because 2007 maps the best with 2012. Even if you look at Tron, it dropped like 56%+ in its 2nd weekend. Plus January was weak that year. Both Tron and True Grit had a strong run. Hobbit will probably do that but with bigger OW and big midnight its multi will suffer.

Tron's second weekend had Christmas Eve on Saturday (a day where moviegoing drops) and The Hobbit's second weekend is pretty much a five day weekend. TL was also a sci fi fanboy film appealing mostly to older males I believe and had little family business Edited by John Marston
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lab276 Global Phenomenon

lab276

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I compared with IAL because 2007 maps the best with 2012. Even if you look at Tron, it dropped like 56%+ in its 2nd weekend. Plus January was weak that year. Both Tron and True Grit had a strong run. Hobbit will probably do that but with bigger OW and big midnight its multi will suffer.

IAL had a more adult audience than TH is likely to have. And I'm not sure why January 2013 will prohibit TH from having good legs.
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lab276 Global Phenomenon

lab276

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Even though The Hobbit's a prequel and Tron Legacy was a sequel chronologically The Hobbit's going to act a lot more like a sequel so it will have worse legs if the WOM is the same.

And yet Sherlock 2 had better legs than Tron.
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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IAL had a more adult audience than TH is likely to have. And I'm not sure why January 2013 will prohibit TH from having good legs.

I said it will also do that. But bigger the OW lower the multi. Plus you have to look at legs for weekend minus the midnights. So for 90M OW you need to calculate for 77M. So 4x would mean around 320M domestic.
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Accursed Arachnid!™ Summer Tentpole

Accursed Arachnid!™

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Looks like it's going to end up pretty close to my 88m prediction. And I don't see how it pitches under a 4x multiplier being family friendly during the holidays. IAL is a good film to compare to for same calendar configuration, but you have to factor in the greater family appeal as you run the numbers.85 x 4 = 340m, or just a bit more than TTT when not factoring in inflation/3D. Attendance-wise that would be on par with films like IM2, POA, HBP.

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