Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[fishstick]

I think all of these had a hand in predicting gaudy numbers for Hobbit:ROTKAvatarBD2DH2MIB3AvengersTDKTDKRTRF3OSTAlice in WonderlandSkyfallAny film that blew up overseas has caused people to think that Hobbit would do the same.

All of those movies save Avatar made sense because they are not originals. Either franchises already or based on some famous source. But once people start bringing Avatar into predictions you know trouble`s ahead. We should have a moratorium on predictions based on Avatar/Titanic run for franchises because it`s ridiculous. Edited December 17, 2012 by fishnets

[CJohn]

Everything from The stone giants on was just pure perfection for me. I love the whole Riddles scene so much.

:wub: And I literally got chills when Bilbo decides to spare Gollum after remembering what Gandalf had told him about taking and sparing lives earlier. Brilliant. So much to that scene if you realize had Gandalf not said that to Bilbo and Bilbo killed Gollum there, Frodo would have never been able to destroy the ring in ROTK.

The stone giants scene was fucking amazing and the riddles stuff was the best part. Seeing Gollum again was awesome. I loved the movie, maybe the best of the year for me

[lilmac]

I never liked the second trailer much myself, especially now that I've seen the movie. They played up the Bomber fat jokes and whatnot when that kind of thing is barely even in the movie. I thought the first trailer was perfect, but after that the marketing was very weak.

Agreed. I think he was going to have a bigger role. I doubt we'll see much of that in the 2nd and 3rd movies since, I assume, they will be more somber and weighty in tone.

[Elessar]

So The Hobbit will have a very moderate decrease on monday. 10M+ all weekdays this week.

I don't think many people have the day off on Monday. Later in the week or next week maybe.

[fishstick]

It's OST more than anything for me.

Thank you! It started "if OST can make $800 mio than TH is a lock for $1 billion" rubbish. Also, DH2. "if DH2 could make $1.3 billion than TH will blow past that from OS alone" stupidity.

[Elessar]

FoTR's trailers were laughably bad compared to the actual movie.

What? The last trailer was AWESOME!

[CJohn]

You're missing my point. Any film that has done well overseas, in this case, MIB3 did much better than MIB2, has caused people to think that TH would blow past ROTK's international take.

Tbh, I did not thought about MIB3 anytime when predicting the Hobbit, but probably some did.

[Elessar]

Character moments are not bloat. However, just having characters on the screen for a long time doing nothing that counts as characterisation is bloat. I haven`t seen TH but boat ride to Skull island was epithome of bloat because nothing happened nor characters became any more fleshed out or familiar to us than when we just met them. Just wasted time.

I disagree. More time spent with the characters is time spent knowing them. Look how much time Aliens took till the action started. People have no patience. Edited December 17, 2012 by Elessar

[Elessar]

Lol, Avatar 2 will be a blast to track on OW here. I can't wait to see all the meltdowns and people screaming "FLOP!" when it only opens to something like $110m. Then in a few months everyone will be calling it a massive success when it hits 600m.

Avatar 2 won't hit 600m from an 110m opening.

[Goffe]

I literally got chills when Bilbo decides to spare Gollum after remembering what Gandalf had told him about taking and sparing lives earlier. Brilliant. So much to that scene if you realize had Gandalf not said that to Bilbo and Bilbo killed Gollum there, Frodo would have never been able to destroy the ring in ROTK.

the best scene to me , the riddles are a bit overrated

[Elessar]

I agree. people here forget how much awards nominations and wins helped LOTR legs. WOM + awards. This will have only WOM.

Awards mean pretty much squat. It's not an indie movie. Legs kicked in long before Oscar nominations were announced for FOTR. It's the WOM that always counts.

[filmnerdjamie]

No one is gonna argue The Hobbit stays #1 next weekend. Question is by how much.

[MovieMan89]

I disagree. More time spent with the characters is time spent knowing them. Look how much time Aliens took till the action started. People have no patience.

I have no problem spending time character developing, but that's not what I'm referring to when I say Hobbit had unnecessary bloat in the front end.

I'm mainly taking about the overlong dinner sequence/discussing the plans/ Bilbo spending 5 minutes just to wake up and get out of his house that went on and on with very little character development. And some of the forest scenes where nothing of any real interest was happening. Also the intro scene of Radaghast was very slow to watch, even if it was introduicing his character. It could have been handled better.

[fishstick]

The reason why I don`t believe in some insane legs that would turn fortunes around suddenly is because TH isn`t a new property that people are not sure about and need WOM, awards,etc to convince them to see it. Everyone knows what they are getting. So lack of rush factor, or more precisely, underwhelming rush points to overall lack of interest regardless of quality. It`s more "yes I`m aware that TH movie is coming out and yes I saw and liked LOTR and I`m just not interested" rather than "I would see this but I need more persuation from opinion-givers that I trust." It smacks of FC to me, where the movie didn`t attract anyone outside of the fanbase despite great WOM and critical reception while fanbase didn`t show up in full force either because some deal breakers were missing (Wolverine, etc).

[MovieMan89]

Avatar 2 won't hit 600m from an 110m opening.

See, it already begins!

[baumer]

See, it already begins!

I don't think BD2 the reboot will do 300 mill either. I'm pretty sure that by 2025 no one will care about Twilight.

[MovieMan89]

The reason why I don`t believe in some insane legs that would turn fortunes around suddenly is because TH isn`t a new property that people are not sure about and need WOM, awards,etc to convince them to see it. Everyone knows what they are getting. So lack of rush factor, or more precisely, underwhelming rush points to overall lack of interest regardless of quality. It`s more "yes I`m aware that TH movie is coming out and yes I saw and liked LOTR and I`m just not interested" rather than "I would see this but I need more persuation from opinion-givers that I trust." It smacks of FC to me, where the movie didn`t attract anyone outside of the fanbase despite great WOM and critical reception while fanbase didn`t show up in full force either because some deal breakers were missing (Wolverine, etc).

Or on the flipside the reason for there not being a big rush could be because people were uncertain of whether or not it would be worthwhile, and are waiting to see how WOM is before going. I don't think people were uncertain of XFC, most just thought it would flat out suck after X3 and Wolvie, so therefore even the great WOM couldn't help change a lot of people's minds. I think great WOM will change a lot of people's minds on whether or not they want to see this.

[Elessar]

See, it already begins!

We'll talk more about that in two years.

[baumer]

It's been a fun few days...signing off...Survivor time in 30 minutes.Choi everyone.

[fishstick]

bump

Edited December 17, 2012 by fishnets