Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[fishstick]

i have a feeling now Django and Les Mes will both break out BIG during christmas. I am predicting they will go 1/2 and end up making well above 100M.

For sure. Anticipation is palatable and Les Mis has great presales.

[dr pawel]

I saw it, and it was awful.

Pirate Bay ?

[Rovex]

For the record i said it would do 1.2 - 1.7 If it broke out, not just a flat out 1.7.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Between The Hobbit on Saturday and the ridiculous Homeland finale last night I feel the entertainment industry is just out to get me.

[stuart360]

Originally set as 270M per movie.

So it cost $270mil to make ALL 3 LOTR movies but its going to cost the same amount to make EACH Hobbit movie?, what the fuck is going on with budgets these days, its ridiculous.

[Harpospoke]

This is another movie that proves citing "predictions" as an indicator of what a movie "should have made" is not very good evidence. Who thought Bond would have a bigger OW than The Hobbit?

Actually they are the main problem:

http://www.motherjon...s-shootings-map

Shouldn't all shootings be included if you are going to use stats to support that claim? These shootings only represent a small portion of total gun deaths. Are legal guns responsible for the majority of gun deaths?

And if you believe tougher gun laws reduce gun violence, shouldn't you be able to demonstrate that is true by showing there are less gun deaths in states with tougher gun laws? (Shouldn't Texas be at the top instead of middle of the pack?) And why are gun death rates falling over the past decade? I find that interesting since some are claiming gun laws are getting less strict. http://www.guardian....-crime-us-state

I would submit legalizing drugs would do far more to reduce gun deaths than tougher gun laws.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Harpospoke

[Elessar]

I know, right? How can one spent over $200m for a movie? That's so much money!

[stuart360]

You watched it?

Its the one with Russel Crowe in it and produced by Tarantino?, yeah its been all over Warez for a couple of months now.

[rockNrollaDIM]

So it cost $270mil to make ALL 3 LOTR movies but its going to cost the same amount to make EACH Hobbit movie?, what the fuck is going on with budgets these days, its ridiculous.

I know right, and the sad thing is TH looks like shit. It's an AIW level of CGI and it looks worse than LOTR after 10+ years and 3x the budget.

[Neo]

I know, right? How can one spent over $200m for a movie? That's so much money!

Has been happening since the 1990s.

[stuart360]

Rovex: 1.7 bill WWBallightning: 28 midnights, 140 OW 475 domestic 980OVS 1455WWstuart360: $440mil US 810 int 1.250WWbaumer: 325 domestic 700 ovs 1.025 billpoeticprose: 445Mandrewthealien: 440MFake: 350/800/1.15Bdar: 475Mwarmaster: This film is going to kill everything, it could have a Avatar type runclonewars: In my opinion, $350M would be beyond horrible. For me, I think $400M is the low end I see doing. Maybe, $377M, but anything less than ROTK just seems beyond, beyond low.telemachos: I tend to be extremely conservative with my estimates, especially for movies or franchises I care about.Like I said, absolute worst case is $350m."Realistic" worst case is ROTK unadjusted.$400-450m is perhaps neutral realistic. $450-$500m is optimistic, $500m+ is best case.Internationally, it's going to crush everything but AVATAR. Like I said, absolute worst case is $350m."Realistic" worst case is ROTK unadjusted.$400-450m is perhaps neutral realistic. $450-$500m is optimistic, $500m+ is best case.Internationally, it's going to crush everything but AVATAR.VC2002: 380/950/1330MAgain, I'm not posting these to embarass anyone. I'm posting them to show those of you who think that no predicted gaudy numbers for it, that you are wrong. Here is the proof. Most people had this doing a massive amount of money.

Yeah i was way over but i haven't been on this site for months so fuck knows how long ago i made that prediction!.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Pirate Bay ?

Nah, It went on VOD on Tentcent last week.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Nah, It went on VOD on Tentcent last week.

There is Argo too:http://film.qq.com/2.5 yuan for each.

[kayumanggi]

Where else ?

Taiwan.

[peludo]

Yeah, obviously, you are so bent on beating TA for whatever reason that you are losing objectivity. You people only see Shreikapoo OS and think it`s the rule for the franchise. Well, I`m sorry to break it to you but it isn`t. FOTR and TTT were always in $500+ mio range which is below HP and Shriekpoo was elevated by last-movie-ever 11 oscars factor. Just like DH2 was elevated by last-movie-ever 3D factor. But $600 mio OS was HP averige and $500+ mio was regular LOTR`s. TH is a regular TH. Last one may get a jump over regular ones but this one has no reason to. Plus, lets not forget that TH opened day-and-date in 56 markets while LOTR had slower roll out. So LOTR had more steam left for longer run while day-and-date requires big opening for there are not many new markets left.

Are you talking about objectivity about LOTR, Shitto? ;)And the data you are giving are not exactly. I mean, FOTR and TTT were in the same level of admissions than ROTK. ROTK did not get a special boost because of being the final chapter, maybe just in US, but not OS. Every LOTR movie sold about the same amount of admissions. In fact, FOTR sold more tickets than ROTK in many big markets (UK, Germany, Spain, ...). Exchange rates were the problem: since 2001, Euro has increased a 46%, Australian dollar more than 100% and Japanese Yen has risen a 40%. With today exchange rates, FOTR would have grossed 750 million OS, TTT about 725 and ROTK would be close to 800. That is just for exchange rates. I do not apply any inflation or 3D figure. Of course, the same can be applied to HP1, HP2 or Finding Nemo, as examples of movies released in the same dates.When I have made comparisons and predictions I have usually mentioned I do not care to compare to FOTR, TTT or ROTK. The reference was always the same.

[stuart360]

I know right, and the sad thing is TH looks like shit. It's an AIW level of CGI and it looks worse than LOTR after 10+ years and 3x the budget.

I haven't seen The Hobbit yet but i have been reading forums and people are saying the film looks terrible and some of the cgi is god awful except Gollum which apparently looks good.I have said this before but you know budgets are spirraling out of control when you are often getting romantic comedys that have budgets of $85+mil !.

[dr pawel]

Taiwan.

I don't think he's such a big fan... Edited December 17, 2012 by dr pawel

[rockNrollaDIM]

I haven't seen The Hobbit yet but i have been reading forums and people are saying the film looks terrible and some of the cgi is god awful except Gollum which apparently looks good.I have said this before but you know budgets are spirraling out of control when you are often getting romantic comedys that have budgets of $85+mil !.

Yeah, it's bad. It looks like a cartoon kids movie.

[Hatebox]

Gollum looked ok in the IMAX trailer I saw, nothing more. The problem with CGI is that, unlike in the 90s, it's pretty much impossible to be wowed by it anymore. It's simply a storytelling tool... as it should be. If it's good I won't notice it, and if it's bad I will.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Hatebox

[baumer]

Yeah i was way over but i haven't been on this site for months so fuck knows how long ago i made that prediction!.

You had one of the more realistic predictions.