Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[Jessie]

So it is clear that Avatar 2 NO WAY will break Avengers' record.

No, no, no.... it means people just wasn't that interested in rushing to see this. People aren't going to start using the holiday season as the reason this didn't open big are they??? IAL was an original non-family friendly movie that's adjusted OW is 89m, plus 3d would be over 100m. Im sure there is a 'chance' Avatar could sell twice the amount of tickets.

[Fake]

I will says it again.....200m is not even remotely possible for Avatar OW.But I gotta go to bed now.... so will discuss it later.

[Ball Lightning]

Avatar 2 won't be a rush to see movie. $100-$110 depending on how great James Cameron's marketing is for it.

[Jessie]

Avatar 2 won't be a rush to see movie. $100-$110 depending on how great James Cameron's marketing is for it.

Oh come on...

[baumer]

This is what I posted in the international thread:

Am I too jaded now when I see a global launch of 220 mill and think ho hum? This is the fourth biggest global launch of the year and it pales in comparison to a film like BD2, which had no 3D and no IMAX in many markets. I just don't see this 220 mill opening as being anything but soft. But all the reports are gushing over the opening like it did something special. This is HOBBIT. It was expected to open big, at least this big. I just wonder if the 300 mill WW launches of big franchises has gotten me too jaded now or if this is really a very soft opening.

[MovieMan89]

B, I think you're forgetting the most important factor at work here that lots of people on this board seem to be forgetting: IT'S DECEMBER! Ya know, the month notorious for its soft OWs and crazy legs? So yes, in the context of what month it is, the 4th biggest WW launch of the year is impressive.

[Michael Gary Scott]

This is what I posted in the international thread:

Am I too jaded now when I see a global launch of 220 mill and think ho hum? This is the fourth biggest global launch of the year and it pales in comparison to a film like BD2, which had no 3D and no IMAX in many markets. I just don't see this 220 mill opening as being anything but soft. But all the reports are gushing over the opening like it did something special. This is HOBBIT. It was expected to open big, at least this big. I just wonder if the 300 mill WW launches of big franchises has gotten me too jaded now or if this is really a very soft opening.

Yes i think certain movies like avengers make people here have these big expectations and when it doesnt they call it a flop. I think its fair to call hobbit opening disappointing but a flop. It will make money just not as much as everyone expected.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Avatar was a phenomenon. It was released at just the right time. I can confidently say no one, not Fox or Cameron, expected it to do what it did. They hoped, but that's different than expected. You cannot manufacture or remanufacture a phenomenon. Avatar 2 is destined to open larger, but make way less.

Each huge franchise has one film that became a phenomenon. Sometimes it's the first film, sometimes the second as a reaction to the first. Either way, whichever film broke the milestone for its time ends up the phenom and its follow up invariably decreases.

70's-Jaws/ANH(200m+)>sequels

80's- Raiders/Batman(around 250m)>sequels

90's- JP/TPM(350m+)>sequels

Early 00's- SM1/Shrek 2(400m+)>sequels

Late 00's- TDK(500m+)>TDKR

10's- Avatar/TA(600m+)>sequels

Edited December 16, 2012 by Accursed Arachnid!™

[baumer]

B, I think you're forgetting the most important factor at work here that lots of people on this board seem to be forgetting: IT'S DECEMBER! Ya know, the month notorious for its soft OWs and crazy legs? So yes, in the context of what month it is, the 4th biggest WW launch of the year is impressive.

Fair enough. And I think you are forgetting that this isn't an original film that needs WOM to build up the interest. This is The Hobbit. This is LOTR. This should have destroyed the box office this weekend. If you adjust this number to 2003, do you know what you get? 65 mill, take out 3D and your left with about 50-55 mill. That's a big drop from ROTK....a very big drop. So excuse me if I'm not doing cartwheels.

[fishstick]

This is The Hobbit. This is LOTR.

No it isn`t. TH isn`t LOTR. Does it even say LOTR in the title? No. Fandom overlaps but it isn`t the same. There are LOTR fans who don`t give a shit about TH book or movie and there are (wastly less) fans of TH only. The fact that TH movie was LOTRified still doesn`t make it LOTR. And it`s LOTRified precisely because they know that LOTR fandom is bigger than TH one so they were trying to extend the overlap.As for Twilight, it`s the most impressive franchise in its consistancy that isn`t aided by various premiums that aid other movie`s boxoffice. Edited December 16, 2012 by fishnets

[MovieMan89]

Oh I'm not doing cartwheels either about this OW by any means Baumer. The only reason I'm not in full panic mode right now is because I know how December box office works. There's no doubt I was expecting a significantly better OW than this (at least Domestically), but I think the potential for incredible holiday legs is still every bit alive.

[The Futurist]

Fair enough. And I think you are forgetting that this isn't an original film that needs WOM to build up the interest. This is The Hobbit. This is LOTR. This should have destroyed the box office this weekend. If you adjust this number to 2003, do you know what you get? 65 mill, take out 3D and your left with about 50-55 mill. That's a big drop from ROTK....a very big drop. So excuse me if I'm not doing cartwheels.

[Robertron]

Meh.Skyfalls hold is more impressive than TH OW number.

[stiger]

The christmas holidays have started for schools in the US, yes?

[CJohn]

THE ROCK!!!!!

[fishstick]

IMO, it`s too early to either proclaim disaster or incredible legs. Neither has happened so far. The movie neither tanked (it`s on par with adjusted second movie in the franchise so jump over the first) nor posted impressive Saturday jump, usually a sign of a great hold to come. So lets see how things develop when shopping season is over and holidays (that include release of more movies) kick off.

Edited December 16, 2012 by fishnets

[baumer]

Oh I'm not doing cartwheels either about this OW by any means Baumer. The only reason I'm not in full panic mode right now is because I know how December box office works. There's no doubt I was expecting a significantly better OW than this (at least Domestically), but I think the potential for incredible holiday legs is still every bit alive.

I think we're on the same page. I agree with you that the opening is fine and that the legs will be excellent. It will more than likely flirt with a 4 multiplier as Christmas is kind to all films. So I don't think this will have a problem hitting 300 and I'm sure it will do well internationally too. It will probably hit 950-a billion.The thing is I (sorry, not trying to turn this into a self congratulatory thing) predicted those numbers in June. I said it would do about 300 and a billion WW. But many said that was ludicrous and way too low. My rebuttal was that a billion is a massive haul, no matter what film you are. So I think TH is doing fine and will finish fine. I just think the expectations here were obviously a bit out of whack. Thank Avengers for that.

[baumer]

The christmas holidays have started for schools in the US, yes?

Monday....

[Hiccup]

The opening weekend is not bad but not good. It is mediocre. This should have had a bigger opening. It should have at least made 95M, which would have beaten the ROTK's adjusted weekend. This should see very nice legs throughout the rest of the run though. I mean if shitty TRON: Legacy could get a 3.8 multiplier this will. I am thinking a 325M finish for this. Which is solid for 1/3 of a film.

[MovieMan89]

I think we're on the same page. I agree with you that the opening is fine and that the legs will be excellent. It will more than likely flirt with a 4 multiplier as Christmas is kind to all films. So I don't think this will have a problem hitting 300 and I'm sure it will do well internationally too. It will probably hit 950-a billion.The thing is I (sorry, not trying to turn this into a self congratulatory thing) predicted those numbers in June. I said it would do about 300 and a billion WW. But many said that was ludicrous and way too low. My rebuttal was that a billion is a massive haul, no matter what film you are. So I think TH is doing fine and will finish fine. I just think the expectations here were obviously a bit out of whack. Thank Avengers for that.

Well that's where we differ I guess cause I still think the multi can hit 4.5x+. But I will give you that your predictions for this all year were not nearly as lowball as I and many others said.