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2013 Best Picture Thread

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I think the internet film snobs are way overestimating Inside Llewyn Davis and Her. I think only one of them can get into Best Picture and it will probably be Her because it's had a much better precursor run. It's like when people were still predicting The Master and Moonrise Kingdom to get nominated despite little precursor support.

 

I also think that Dallas Buyers Club, despite doing well with the guilds, could get ignored in Best Picture (it seems to me like the type of film that would have a hard time generating that many number 1 votes). This would leave space for the more conventional but Academy friendly films like Philomena and Saving Mr Banks to get in. Which I think is what will happen.

 

 

This. I think Llewyn Davis is in though. It's up the Academy's alley and it's much more accessible than Her, which is an odd movie (and not that good imo) and totally the antithesis of what the Academy likes. 

 

And I don't think DBC gets in either. And i do think Philomena gets in. 

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Likely my final:12 Years a SlaveAmerican HustleCaptain PhilipsDallas Buyers ClubGravityHerNebraskaSaving Mr. BanksWolf of Wall StreetAlt: Inside Llewyn DavisI was not sure what to replace with Dallas-ultimately I went with ILD, though it was a tough call.

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12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

 

I think Gravity, 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle will take a good percentage of the number 1 votes leaving room for maybe 6 total nominees.

Edited by eXtacy
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12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

 

I think Gravity, 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle will take a good percentage of the number 1 votes leaving room for maybe 6 total nominees.

 

Votes are redistributed after a film gets 20% of the number one votes so I don't think it would cause anything that major.

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Votes are redistributed after a film gets 20% of the number one votes so I don't think it would cause anything that major.

 

That's interesting. I didn't know that

 

My main problem though is that there are a lot of films with a lot of heat going for them. In recent years, at this time, there were 10-12 films competing for room, and some of them even had mixed reviews/reception.

 

This year we have 12YAS, Gravity, AH, WOWS, Nebraska, CP, ILD, SMB, Her, DBC, Philomena, The Butler, Blue Jasmine, Fruitvale, August, All is lost, Before Midnight and Rush. All of those will have supporters. That means that #1 votes will be widely spread through a lot of films. It could be more difficult to reach the #1 votes necessary to get in. Because of that factor, we could see a six / seven BP field.

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Choices aren't very easy this year:Best PictureBefore MidnightCaptain PhillipsDianaElysiumGravityInside Llewyn DavisMonuments MenPrisonersTranceThe Wolf of Wall StreetBest DirectorGeorge ClooneyCoen brothersAlfonso CuaronOliver HirschbiegelMartin ScorseseBest AnimatedCloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2The CroodsEpicFrozenMonsters UniversityMaybe:The Tale of Princess KayugaThe Wind Rises

 

Diana  :lol:  :lol:  :lol: . It was the director of Downfall, though.

 

Before and Llewyn should've been in based on their critical receptions. But Elysium, Prisoners, and Trance all got less enthusiastic responses than I was anticipating.

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Apparently nominees for Wolf of the Wall Street's Best Picture nomination have been announced. Leo's among the producers nominated. That's new to me. Had no idea he produced it.

 

So, he's standing at 5 Oscar Nominations and no win.

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