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Shawn Robbins

Weekend Discussion: IM3 @ 175.3m wknd est

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Only thing that could even come close to stopping it in that scenario would be 9pm showings.

 

Yes, I don't think we'll be able to get a direct comparison unless the industry switches back to midnight-only. But as it stands, they seem pretty happy to have the extra showtimes lumped in as part of the weekend. Aurora gave them the loophole to do it so they're taking advantage.

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No one ever talks about Potter $91M in one day. Seriously, IMO thats as good as a $200M OW.

 

Because the movie collapsed after midnights. Nothing about its domestic run is interesting except those ridiculous midnight

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I've never bought this. Movies are expensive. Most people go to theater with what they want to see already in mind. If the showtime is sold out, they usually just wait. I don't know people that are going to go to the theater anticipating F6 or TH3, then it gets sold out and they go "oh well, why not Star Trek?". I think more people are likely to just leave. "Well that x dollars I don't have to spend". Memorial weekend will be high profile, and Memorial weekend is also a family holiday. People aren't going to the movies unless they're set on something, and I'd expect them to see what they came for, even if they have to wait 45 more minutes, heck you've waited 2-3 years.

 

Some people do watch another movie though.

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I gotta be honest, after being part of the line for Potter's midnights, nothing even remotely impresses me anymore.

 

You kids do remember the old days, right?

 

I remember, my dad taking me to wait in line outside around the block for hours so we could see Empire Strikes Back at the single screen theater. You either waited in line or you didn't go. (And we're not talking opening day or anything like that, this was weeks after it opened.)

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It won't be The Avengers 2. Set the bar so high there is nowhere else to go but down.

 

In total, yes. On opening weekend, no.

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I meant I think Ep 7 could beat DH2's mids even with 9pms. We'd have no way of knowing for sure though. Unless we got some 60m+ number or something.

 

It wouldn't have nearly the same number of midnight/post-midnight shows, since a whole batch of them would be distributed to the 9pm slots.

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No, I think quite often people don't want to wait another 2 hours or whatever for the next available show. They'll catch an alternative choice and then try to see the first movie at a later date -- unless they're hardcore fans.

 

They'll usually only have to wait 2 hours though if its on one screen. And there are many areas that have theaters close enough where they could leave. My town has 2 theaters 2 minutes apart, then none for another 20 miles, so if you go to the Amstar and you're 25 minutes late, you can drive over to Regal and you usually have one about to start. I'm not speaking for everyone, some people probably change their mind at the ticket counter, but its hard to assume when people were already specifically set on something, but again there are some people are who just too lazy and will go "whatever, I'm already here, just gimme a ticket for...whatevers next".

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But SW's fanbase isn't just teens/20 somethings who would watch a movie at midnight. It's older adults and kids and everything in between.

 

Potter was just such a singular phenomenon - a huge, sprawling fanbase that mostly fit into that very specific age range who were manic about seeing the movie right away

 

Sith had an insane midnight opening though. It broke the previous record by around 100%. Phantom Menace is the one that STARTED the midnight phenomenon. Does Star Wars appeal to more of the general audience than Potter? Sure. But the Star Wars nerds are just as crazy about midnights as the Potter kids were.

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Because the movie collapsed after midnights. Nothing about its domestic run is interesting except those ridiculous midnight

Sad but true. DH2's run was so anticlimactic if you take out the midnights it's almost pathetic. Even it's Friday w/o midnights was blah. For me when I think of the greatest box office achievements since I've been following box office (around 2000 or so) I think:

 

1. Avatar's run

2. Avenger's OW (tie)

2. SM1's OW (tie)

4. New Moon's OD

5. DH2's midnight

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Sith had an insane midnight opening though. It broke the previous record by around 100%. Phantom Menace is the one that STARTED the midnight phenomenon. Does Star Wars appeal to more of the general audience than Potter? Sure. But the Star Wars nerds are just as crazy about midnights as the Potter kids were.

 

Haha true. Fair enough

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Because the movie collapsed after midnights. Nothing about its domestic run is interesting except those ridiculous midnight

 

Yeah I know, but thats just a massive amount for 1 day. I remember I was at Chilis eating and checked the numbers and I'm not a Potter fan, but I almost spit my drink. I was like $91M? In one day? BOM and their typos...

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The AMC at Century City and Universal City Los Angeles (the only 2 theaters I track) disappointed slightly today. Not a single non-IMAX sellout. Plenty of shows 80-85% full, but the lack of sold out shows was weird in itself. I remember tracking it for both Avengers and TDKR, and those had extra shows added due to demand.

 

How do you track AMC? I can't be fussed with clicking on every showtime, lol. Is there a better way than that?

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Yeah I know, but thats just a massive amount for 1 day. I remember I was at Chilis eating and checked the numbers and I'm not a Potter fan, but I almost spit my drink. I was like $91M? In one day? BOM and their typos...

 

Yeah, but that $91m is less exciting when early reports were tracking well over $100m...

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