PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES | 622.3 M overseas ● 794.9 M worldwide

[Lordmandeep]

looks like 700 million is assured.

[Blaze Heatnix]

I guess it'll end with something like 700-750 million worldwide, tops.

 

Not a bad number, but it's a huge drop if compared to the previous movie that made more than 1 billion worldwide. The budget isn't really small, either. I guess they'll probably come with another movie, and then complete the series.

[Eastwood47]

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

looks like 700 million is assured.

 

With the domestic drops stabilizing at 21%, international markets still strong, and Japan getting ready to release it, I would say $750 million is becoming much more plausible.  I do think $800 is off the table though. Still a very good tally for a series that is supposed to be on it's death bed. Far from it. Disney has to be pleased given the critical rampage it has received. 

[Quigley]

From DEADLINE:

 

"In its 4th weekend, the Johnny Depp-starrer reached $500M at the international box office, making it the 21st Walt Disney Studios film to surpass the milestone. It’s now the No. 3 international release of 2017 (Dis also has No. 2 Beauty And The Beast and No. 4 Guardians 2).

 

The weekend was good for $18.8M in 54 markets for an overseas cume of $500M and $650.1M worldwide. Looking at the same suite of markets at today’s rates, POTC5 is currently running 12% ahead of Pirates 4 and 30% ahead of Pirates 3.

 

China still is well in the lead with $169.3M, followed by Russia at $38.5M, Germany with $24.4M, the UK at $22.3M, and Korea‘s $22. Japan has still to dock on July 1."

 

COMMENT: I think the sentence in bold is the most important to take note of. There seems to be no sign of fatigue for this franchise.

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, Quigley said:

From DEADLINE:

 

COMMENT: I think the sentence in bold is the most important to take note of. There seems to be no sign of fatigue for this franchise.

I am not buying that comment. That is a spin. Only Japan is left and its way below Pirates 3 and 4. Definitely not in admissions or even local currency.Minus China it has dropped hard from previous movies whether you look at USD or local currency. 

[Barnack]

Pirates 4 did a bit under 700 oversea minus japan, pirates 3 did 560m minus japan, they are probably talking after the same number of days after the release if 3-4 had great legs vs how frontloaded it will be in 2017 I guess it is possible, exchange change quite a lot from so long ago.

 

The spin would be to include China and some other market that exploded since in the calculation, outside those even with the exchange rate it must have dropped.

[Noctis]

7 hours ago, Quigley said:

From DEADLINE:

 

"In its 4th weekend, the Johnny Depp-starrer reached $500M at the international box office, making it the 21st Walt Disney Studios film to surpass the milestone. It’s now the No. 3 international release of 2017 (Dis also has No. 2 Beauty And The Beast and No. 4 Guardians 2).

 

The weekend was good for $18.8M in 54 markets for an overseas cume of $500M and $650.1M worldwide. Looking at the same suite of markets at today’s rates, POTC5 is currently running 12% ahead of Pirates 4 and 30% ahead of Pirates 3.

 

China still is well in the lead with $169.3M, followed by Russia at $38.5M, Germany with $24.4M, the UK at $22.3M, and Korea‘s $22. Japan has still to dock on July 1."

 

COMMENT: I think the sentence in bold is the most important to take note of. There seems to be no sign of fatigue for this franchise.

 

You don't know shit, Quigley. 

[Eastwood47]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not buying that comment. That is a spin. Only Japan is left and its way below Pirates 3 and 4. Definitely not in admissions or even local currency.Minus China it has dropped hard from previous movies whether you look at USD or local currency. 

 

 But Pirates 4 grossed $108 million in Japan alone. Each new entry has seen an increase in ticket sells for that market. If that continues then it's actually quite possible that Pirates 5 arrives at $800 million. The film has a good shot at hitting $700 million before July 1st when it opens in Japan, so I wouldn't throw dirt on the franchise or that final tally just yet. 

[KP1025]

5 hours ago, Eastwood47 said:

 

 But Pirates 4 grossed $108 million in Japan alone. Each new entry has seen an increase in ticket sells for that market. If that continues then it's actually quite possible that Pirates 5 arrives at $800 million. The film has a good shot at hitting $700 million before July 1st when it opens in Japan, so I wouldn't throw dirt on the franchise or that final tally just yet. 

 

Pirates 4 only grossed that much in Japan because of an extremely favorable exchange rate. In today's exchange rate,  its ¥8.87 billion would only convert to $79.4 million. Pirates 4 is actually well behind Pirates 3 (¥10.90 billion) and Pirates 2 (¥10.02 billion) in local currency. 

 

In admissions, Pirates 4 only had 5.46 million ticket sales in Japan compared to 8.4 million for Pirates 3 and 7.75 million for Pirates 2. It's also worth mentioning that the 3D share for tickets is far lower now in Japan compared to 2011, when it was one of the highest post Avatar craze.  If Pirates 5 sells the same number of tickets as Pirates 4, it will still drop quite a bit in local currency.

Edited June 19, 2017 by KP1025

[John Marston]

Just now, KP1025 said:

 

Pirates 4 only grossed that much in Japan because of an extremely favorable exchange rate. In today's exchange rate,  its ¥8.87 billion would only convert  to $79.4 million. Pirates 4 is actually well behind Pirates 3 (¥10.90 billion) and Pirate 2 (¥10.02 billion) in local currency. 

 

In admissions, Pirates 4 only had 5.46 million ticket sales in Japan compared to 8.4 million for Pirates 3 and 7.75 million for Pirates 2. Its also worth mentioning that the 3D share for tickets is far lower now in Japan compared to 2011.

 

 

that still seems better than most Hollywood movies in Japan these days

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

that still seems better than most Hollywood movies in Japan these days

 

I'm sure it will still do blockbuster numbers in Japan. It's still the most anticipated summer release according to this list. 

 

Eiga.com's Most "Liked" Upcoming Summer Releases (July & August):

01 (01) 12,915 [+804] / 31st [+10] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (07/01/17)
02 (02) 9,251 [+433] / UR - Spider-Man: Homecoming (08/11/17)
03 (03) 7,689 [+489] / 69th [+25] - Gintama (07/14/17)
04 (04) 6,083 [+383] / 66th [+13] - Wonder Woman (08/25/17)
05 (05) 5,376 [+312] / 86th [+11] - Transformers: The Last Knight (08/04/17)
06 (06) 5,325 [+549] / UR - Mary and the Witch's Flower (07/08/07)
07 (07) 4,986 [+345] / 81st [+02] - I Want to Eat Your Pancreas (07/28/17)
08 (09) 4,617 [+414] / 72nd [+28] - John Wick: Chapter 2 (07/07/17)
09 (08) 4,429 [+256] / UR - Tokyo Ghoul (07/29/17)
10 (11) 4,097 [+300] / UR - Fireworks, Should We See it from the Side or the Bottom? (08/18/17)
11 (10) 4,064 [+206] / UR - JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: Diamond Is Unbreakable (08/04/17)
12 (12) 3,684 [+257] / UR - Despicable Me 3 (07/21/17)
13 (13) 3,121 [+213] / 90th [-28] - Shinobi's Country (07/01/17)
14 (15) 3,060 [+446] / 40th [+20] - The Mummy (07/28/17)
15 (14) 2,926 [+229] / UR - Power Rangers (07/15/17)
16 (17) 2,614 [+382] / 49th [+51] - Life (07/08/17)
17 (16) 2,592 [+238] / UR - Cars 3 (07/15/17)
18 (18) 1,763 [+97] / UR - Sekigahara (08/26/17)
19 (19) 1,625 [+135] / UR - Pokemon: I Choose You! (07/15/17)
20 (20) 1,274 [+202] / UR - The Anthem of the Heart (07/22/17)

UR = Unranked in the Top 100 Search List.

[a2k]

30 more OS from current markets (after a ~19 weekend) gives 530 OS.

15 more Dom (after a ~9 weekend) gives 165 dom

55 Japan gives 530 + 165 + 55 = 750

Have been conservative enough. Can't rule out ~765 ww.

[a2k]

This will bring in 3-3.3x it's prod budget (230-250) globally (750-760). Never mind the back-end deals and marketing budget, Disney will make some profit on this.

If Japan surprises and does 75 odd and ww is pushed to 775, would really start rooting for the 6th one.

POTC 1,2,3 : the A grade trilogy

POTC 4,5,6 : the B grade trilogy

Edited June 20, 2017 by a2knet

[ttr]

 
Pirates 4 only grossed that much in Japan because of an extremely favorable exchange rate. In today's exchange rate,  its ¥8.87 billion would only convert to $79.4 million. Pirates 4 is actually well behind Pirates 3 (¥10.90 billion) and Pirates 2 (¥10.02 billion) in local currency. 
 
In admissions, Pirates 4 only had 5.46 million ticket sales in Japan compared to 8.4 million for Pirates 3 and 7.75 million for Pirates 2. It's also worth mentioning that the 3D share for tickets is far lower now in Japan compared to 2011, when it was one of the highest post Avatar craze.  If Pirates 5 sells the same number of tickets as Pirates 4, it will still drop quite a bit in local currency.

Pirates 3 did $91.1 million in 2007 with stronger dollar than today. All in all I do not think that we should abandon $800 million WW yet.

[a2k]

I think POTC5 over TF5 ww could still happen and that would be some story considering TF5 is looking at 300 in China.

150 dom + 300 Ch + 350 OS-Ch = 800 ww for TF5 but things could go up or down by some amount.

If POTC5 over-performs in Japan and helps itself to 780 ww then there is an outside shot at TF5 doing below POTC5. A very slim shot but a shot nevertheless.

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, ttr said:

Pirates 3 did $91.1 million in 2007 with stronger dollar than today. All in all I do not think that we should abandon $800 million WW yet.

That was a different era. No way P5 comes close to that in admissions.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That was a different era. No way P5 comes close to that in admissions.

 

Yeah, Fantastic Beast numbers are around the ceiling for POTC5 in Japan.

[ttr]

That was a different era. No way P5 comes close to that in admissions.

Ok. Was that the "before 3D era"? And in 2011 it was the "3D era"? Or how do one define different eras?

You know BO better than I, so I do not want to argue about how much PotC5 makes in Japan, but I'd love to hear what has changed between 2007 and 2017 in Japanese BO.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, ttr said:

Ok. Was that the "before 3D era"? And in 2011 it was the "3D era"? Or how do one define different eras?

You know BO better than I, so I do not want to argue about how much PotC5 makes in Japan, but I'd love to hear what has changed between 2007 and 2017 in Japanese BO.

 

in the noughties hollywood movies dominated Japanese BO( more than half the overall gross). Now japanese movies are dominating overall(even though a frozen or a Beast breaks out now and then). Plus lots of sequels to movies released in that era have dropped as audience have moved on or evolved. Pirates already dropped quite a bit with Pirates 4 but was benefited by super strong yen and 3D playing a huge part. Now it will drop even further with admissions and very low 3d ratio. 

[RobinHood26]

On June 20, 2017 at 5:47 AM, ttr said:

Ok. Was that the "before 3D era"? And in 2011 it was the "3D era"? Or how do one define different eras?

You know BO better than I, so I do not want to argue about how much PotC5 makes in Japan, but I'd love to hear what has changed between 2007 and 2017 in Japanese BO.

 

The 3D area was 2010 to 2012 

 

which by then it was already dying off a bit. But after avatar lots and lots of blockbusters got huge 3D bumbs.