Cmasterclay

I wouldn't trust the audience score on this anymore than Dear White People's IMDB score.

So Liam Neeson did Silence and it didn't quite work out like planned so I guess he was all "Eh, fuck it. Back to the mediocre action movies."

Even the Wall Street Journal gave it a glowing review, and they kind of hate black people. This must be really good.

I'm still waiting for the inevitable post that says "This is only getting such good reviews because reviewers are afraid of being called racist!! #PC." It feels like it's gotta be coming.

This has quietly gone from "One of the better reviewed horror movies in recent memory" to "One of the better reviewed major releases of modern times" in the span of a couple of days. I'm letting myself get too excited.

I wonder if the Detroit riot movie will actually open there. Seems a weird date, but I wouldn't complain. One of my most anticipated of the year for sure. Might as well move Valerian or Dark Tower there too, at least. Also, the new Soderbergh movie sounds fucking amazing. Edgar Wright movies......eh.

This would have to get pretty damn great reviews to do much more than 100 million. BATB is just going to crush everything and you have a spate of things like Power Rangers, Boss Baby, Life, and Ghost in the Shell (lol) that are going to provide even more competition- and that's not even mentioning how well-received and potentially leggy Logan could be. There's just not much of an audience for this in the first place. And you put it in that crowded of a market? I'm thinking 30/75 for this assuming average reviews. Also, March might be bigger than any summer month. Pretty impressive.

There's no really good way around this. What I did was tracked the top 20 or so movies for 2013, 2014, and 2015, to try to cut through that noise and give the data an opportunity to work itself out. There's no one factor that is THAT statistically significant, sadly. It's very messy and the confidence is mediocre, but that's fitting, given what we know about box office.

Wasn't able to find my whole project with graphs and explanations, but found a PowerPoint with my regression analysis. Trailer views and RT audience score were very solid indicators. Things like budgets and Theater Count had to be in there for control. Super Franchise was a multi-tiered dummy variable indicating what level of franchise it was (starting up based on existing material, sequels, or completely original) Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 51 -------------+------------------------------ F( 9, 41) = 20.21 Model | 529194.749 9 58799.4166 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 119268.862 41 2908.99664 R-squared = 0.8161 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.7757 Total | 648463.612 50 12969.2722 Root MSE = 53.935 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Gross | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ProdBudget | -1.236758 .4330427 -2.86 0.007 -2.111305 -.3622103 MarketingBud | 2.151938 .9392942 2.29 0.027 .2549945 4.048881 TrailerViews | 1.101537 .3635741 3.03 0.004 .3672848 1.83579 RottenToma~s | .1106297 1.490837 0.07 0.941 -2.900176 3.121436 RTAverage | .5181892 1.060976 0.49 0.628 -1.624496 2.660874 RTAudience | 3.671616 1.013446 3.62 0.001 1.624921 5.71831 TheaterCount | .1041881 .0323623 3.22 0.003 .0388312 .169545 SuperFran | 65.13007 26.70952 2.44 0.019 11.1891 119.0711 RTsq | -.0067532 .0122797 -0.55 0.585 -.0315526 .0180462 _cons | -500.1232 136.2386 -3.67 0.001 -775.2626 -224.9839

I did a multiple regression model. My laptop crashed and so I lost it but I'm going to try and see if I saved it in some drive.

This is great. I actually did this exact project two years ago (I posted it in the CC thread) and found very similar results. I used about 12 different variables and found trailer views to be a statistically significiant factor compared to reviews or audience score, for example.

Hey, me and Numbers had the exact same top three last year! Albeit it in a different order, but still. I knew there was a reason he was one of my MVPs.

We're actually pretty simpatico except I think you're way high on Logan and Ghost In The Shell. I think Logan does something like 50/120 and Ghost in the Shell about 14/30 or so. I also think that the collection of low tier movies like Before I Fall and the Shaq and Zookeeper's Wife and Belko are just going to get evaporated and finish well below this. Also, since it's in the immediate future I think Fist Fight is DEFINITELY beating out the Great Wall next weekend. What is the audience for that movie in America? At least Fist Fight is the first live action comedy in awhile, and it has a likable pair of stars that could play off each other.

Oh good, I thought I was the only one. Since the moment it got announced I thought "Yep, spin-off that might lose the novelty of the first." Honestly anything over 60 is kinda overperforming IMO, so I'm impressed.

What evidence is there for Logan to do 80 million? The digital metrics and tracking is fairly average, and the last movie in the same franchise did about 50/120. And that was before Apocalypse, which showed increasingly diminishing returns for X Men. There's just no evidence for it doing that great except "I liked the Johnny Cash song in the trailer."

I think Logan might probably finish under 55 OW and Kong could finish under 30. Who cares about these franchises anymore? Feels like internet hype is out of proportion. I also think BATB might hit 150 OW and Power Rangers could overperform and hit 40, so my March predictions are a little out of whack.

Fifty Shades Darker broke trailer view records, solds tens of millions of copies and was a number one best seller, huge presales, and had marketing everywhere. It was obviously gonna drop, but those 35 million predictions, especially so close to VD, always seemed a bit reactionary to me. I've been thinking it'd still hit around 50 at least. This series ain't Divergent. I don't get the 85 mill predictions for Lego Batman and never have. It's a spinoff without the novelty or original cast of the first movie. Why in the world would it do 15 million more on opening weekend? This is a legitimate big Batman movie as much as Star Wars:The Clone Wars is Episode 8. It's a kid's animated movie, there's no reason it should increase just because it has a superhero in it. It's an animated spinoff. John Wick 2 is gonna have a fan rush, but that's still a great number and something like 25/70 would be excellent for it.

It sold out in my showing. Definitely gonna overperform if my area is any indication, but it is in smaller theaters. Anyway, this was very good. The action, setpieces, cinematography, lore, acting.....all above the first. But in a way, that almost hurts it. This is a more ambitious, densely plotted movie that explores the lore in a deeper way and gives a different cast of characters with different perspectives on Wick. I admire it for that. But in doing that, it loses the inherent silliness that made John Wick 1 such ridiculous fun. John Wick was a movie about a guy who was sad over his dog dying and he decided to kill over 100 people because of it. There's no scene like "I'm THINKING I'M BACK" or when the big mob boss gets the call and shits his pants. John Wick was a far simpler movie, and it leaned more into it's B-movieness because of it. This retains alot of what made John Wick great but actually feels very, very different in structure and tone (though it's even better in terms of world-building or style). It was great and I want to see it again because it's just a great movie. But John Wick 1 had me double over whooping and cheering because it was so fun. This was better. John Wick was more fun.

Bring @MrPink instead. He's a hot date.

I mean, true. Like I said, I hate Mel Gibson and am predisposed to chalk certain things up to him being a racist, given that he is an avowed racist and all. But hey, dude sure as shit knows how to shoot a battle scene. He made a darn good movie here. I do think the Japanese were depicted as faceless and savage, but I get why he did that and I agree with your points completely. Fuck Mel Gibson, though.

I actually can see Goffe's point about the anti-Japan stuff (there's literally a scene where Japanese soldiers are depicted like vermin coming from under tunnels, with no faces- just an endless mass), but I admit that's probably fully just my hate for Mel Gibson talking. I think this movie is VERY anti-war though. Just by how plainly it depicts the horror of combat, it made war seem as terrifying and brutal as it ever has on screen. I specifically made a mental note to go AWOL or dodge the draft if Trump ever forced us into a war with China or Iran and started drafting us because of this movie. Fuck THAT. Anyway, I'm with Coolio. I didn't think this was the transcendent "best movie ever" that the board seemed to think it was, but I enjoyed myself and it does certainly get the job done.

But wait, even if it's 40 percent, then I still think that's wrong. Saying "I hate message movies about people of color" can easily be interpreted as racist. How do you not see that? Stop acting like a victim and get out of your conservative safe space and defend your position instead of crying anti-SJW tears. See, we can do it too!

Wait, so you admit that a strong percentage of your posts DO say stuff like that? Cuz even that's too much for me not to say something. Also, absolutely no one I have ever met echoes your opinion on Boyega. I get that you only like movies that make money at the box office, which is really sad, but maybe you should step back and think why several posters are saying the same thing.

This is one of the most batshit insane things I think I've ever read outside of the Trump administration.

I mean, pretty much every post you make is about how liberal Hollywood keeps trying to push "message" stories with unqualified actors of color. It's not really a massive stretch. That's barely even coded language.