Gopher

As somebody lucky enough to be RTH for a month or two, cranking calculations takes so damn long they're not worth it for stuff that probably made ~700k.

Holy mackerel. That'd be more impressive than Tuesday. Shrek 2 is locked, this weekend would put 500 in the picture...

I'm very thankful there's no record of twerp kid Gopher arguing w 40 year olds

I think what baumer's getting at is no animated film will ever touch what Shrek 2 did (or will). It opened in a completely different cultural climate. Really the only known CGI films at the time were Shrek and Toy/Nemo/Monsters, all of which are arguably the best films made in their medium. This was the peak of CGI as a fad, but also fad based in quality. Shrek 2 was bolstered perception that be these films were extraordinary, one-of-a-kind achievements and few of these movies contradicted that (including the sequel at the time, even if it obviously hasn't aged well). The bottom fell out, largely thanks to Dreamworks itself by polluting the CGI marketplace with millions of terrible rushed films. Even Shrek 3 couldn't sell more tickets opening weekend and that came just three years later and on the heels of one of the most liked blockbusters ever made. Frozen was one of those cultural phenomenons the current studio system seems to ensure can't exist anymore. It opens #2 in November and it's #1 in mid-January. It's also an enormous factor in getting the musical back in the cultural landscape (but that's for a much longer piece). No novelty or cash-in.. it totally reignited a brand. Dory is the first summer movies in years that's a purebred sequel to a well-loved film and audiences are rewarding. The last might've been Despicable Me and the scale is much bigger here. Thinking about how it may come within distance of Nemo's adjusted run is great considering how much Nemo made (more impressive than when Toy Story 3 retained Toy Story 2's admissions).

+1 to Webslinger's comment that it occupies a difficult place in the Pixar canon. I think comparison to the other films is tough because Dory has something very different on its mind. Not worse, but different. It feels like the creative team was very aware that they were never going to topple Nemo's place in the critical or cultural lore, and whatever sequel they made would have to have a smaller scope and have to feel vital or necessary in an unexpected way. They accomplished both - the film is wildly paced, jumping from a character to the next action setpiece to the next new character like it's nothing. Under the surface it gets to something scary and necessary about family and disability, frequently using first-person animation to create a visceral experience Pixar hasn't tried before. A great film would've given more time for either side to breathe, but a very good one like Dory puts a confident foot forward and loudly (particularly when an octopus is driving a truck) pronounces what it wants to be.

54m 45m (flat from Saturday) 37m (-18%) 136m OW Second weekend won't dip more than 50-52% (65-68m), and it's looking extremely unlikely ID42 will top that. DORY wins three weekends, first Pixar film to do so since TOY STORY 2.

You know what's in Dory's favor? Being a critically acclaimed (assuming the RT score stays in the 90s) family movie in a summer where they've been actively disinterested in most of their choices. TMNT, Angry Birds and Looking Glass are underperforming while Jungle Book remains in the top 10. When tickets are more expensive than ever families won't put down $100 or whatever unless the movie can deliver. Legs are more questionable though. Word is that it's good but not as good as the original and that's the sort of thinking that prevents repeat viewing. It can clear 100m next weekend and still not clear IO, I think.

Guys. Guys. Remember when FURY ROAD was in theaters a year ago? Remember when POPSTAR wasn't the best movie playing in theaters?

I think the trend still works - traditionally you don't want your sequel to open 20% below the original - but I think it's a testament to the original's strong word of mouth that this one didn't drop more. I kind of wonder if it could've cleared 30m with a January weekend.

I'm curious about the strategy behind a wide summer release for a movie they didn't seem interested in promoting. I'm sure it had to have tested well. It would've played really well as a Netflix premiere (which I'm sure much of the demo for this film is waiting for it to come to).

Popstar is a damn shame but it's no surprise. Hod Rod was a cult movie in the making and this will be as well. All 10 people at the matinee today were cackling.

*Wakes up* *Sees Alice number* ahaahahahahahaahahaahahahaaaa

I think the new Trek trailer looks great (why are they Apocalypsing Idris tho?) but its appeal seems more niche than ever to me. 70/175 feels like the best case scenario. Bourne could but I'm not a fan of the release date (it will be slaughtered in weekend 2 if it is bad) and I worry about how much time has passed since the last Damon movie. But I wouldn't count it out purely on how good Uni's campaign for it will be and how good the movie *could* be. Greengrass is a great director and the third Bourne was extremely leggy. But my instinct right now is to say it'll do MI5 numbers.

I haven't been back here since Christmas so nobody minds if I make some big summer BO claims, right? ID42 is gonna make bank but feels like the rare movie where Will Smith would've helped make it more bank. Looks like a 300m movie. Helps that there's no other rebootquel of its ilk this summer so as unoriginal as it looks it be fairly unique in the marketplace. Dory is gonna be an inflated version of MU, not TS3. None of the trailers have left an impact and Nemo doesn't have Toy Story's multigenerational reverence (and this film isn't playing to that reverence TS3 was). Reviews probably matter more here than any other summer film (except probably Suicide Squad which remains the summer's biggest question mark). The only one beyond those three with even 200m potential is Pets (which will do very very well). Nothing else will touch that mark. X-Men and Alice are pretty much what's in store for this summer IMO.

IM3 had Trek in weekend three and 150m of competition in weekend four. It was also a movie that widely pissed off the faithful (for some reason). This is where Marvel as a TV show (which make no mistake is exactly what the Russs are making) starts to falter. Not everybody is going to want to rewatch the fifth season.

We've come to a point where nobody is recommending these bigger Marvel movies to new viewers and they're not generating rewatchability even among fans. I dug Civil War and I have no desire to revisit it - there's nothing I missed. This is the last Marvel movie like that for a little while though. The next three feel like their own things (even Thor 3). IWP1 will probably pull something between CW and AOU and P2 will see a Deathly Hallows-type jump. They're never gonna repeat Avengers again... if they do it's probably going to come from one of their weirdest superheroes and most different films.

EVERYTHING (FOX) BUILT WILL FALL

Abort abort abort 11m Fri 15.5m Sat 13.5m Sun 11m Mon 51m 4-day

Uh um huh 13m Fri 18m Sat 16m Sun 13m Mon 60m 4-day This is effectively what Kung Fu Panda 2 made five years ago and probably the benchmark for an oversaturated disappointing kids sequel. But I have a gut feeling that it could pull something closer to Tomorrowland. Nobody wants this movie and families haven't been hungry at the box office this year, largely because of Disney's own much more acclaimed offerings. I don't think Disney has any faith in this title because they've given it and BFG (which they seem to only have a little more faith in) crowded holiday opening weekends very close to other tentpoles they've put more oomph into. I'm just gonna assume it's too big to completely fail and hope I'm proven wrong.

Gonna be hard to when it doesn't break 100 mil in the US...

The Russos and screenwriters can turn the Marvel exposition mud into wine. The film builds splendidly, kind of owning its TV-like overstuffedness and structure of jumping between situations. Bucky or Accords would've streamlined the entire thing more - Marvel wants to have its cake and eat it too, and it mostly works actually. Cements the Cap films as the cornerstone of Marvel quality. Still, I saw no reason why this couldn't have ended on the shot tracking away from Downey in the snow lair.

Zootopia's (probably) toppling BvS. A 4x this weekend for Zootopia (worst case scenario) puts it around 340 and a 3x this weekend for BvS (best case scenario) puts it around 340. It's also gonna kill it WW. Hey everyone!

It's a great theater with a solid digital setup (terrible film tho)

I'll probably be in the minority but I thought Leo was given nothing of substance to do in this film. He grunts and groans and cries a lot, looks into the camera and asks for his Oscar.

AHAHAHAHAHAJWHAHAHAHAHHAAHAHA (solid list though)