TLK

Best Picture : ZDT.Not really surprising but I want to know more about the Les Miz snub.

I think Spielberg remains the favorite for the Oscars. The only surprising thing about NYFCC is that they have completely ignored Les Miz, a movie that remains embargoed. Things that make you go hmmm.

If they decide to stay mainstream then the only choices appear to be either Lincoln or ZDT. They have completely ignored other frontrunners so far.

Screenplay : Lincoln.

Rachel Weisz. Nice.

Yeah. They are voting in real time.

This one was easy. Let us see if they have the balls to give Best Film to Amour.

Love these choices so far. MM has been working his ass off lately and Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln shouldn't really be a surprise.

I am rooting for Riva to win Best Actress. She needs to win a couple of critics choice awards in order to build momentum.

Look what showed up on my twitter feed just after I posted this message. Sasha Stone ‏@AwardsDaily Screening at the DGA. Taylor Hackford, DGA president, doing q&a with Tarantino. Well played, TWC. Well played. Whither David O. Russell?

SpielbergAffleckLeeHooperTarantino (yes, I went there)

I think Les Miz has a better shot at taking down Lincoln than ZDT. I don't see ZDT winning either GG or BAFTA while Les Miz has a good shot at both these awards. Lincoln is going to stay at the very top during the entire awards season (Spielberg, DDL, Box Office, history etc.) and only a movie with momentum will be able to beat it. Frankly, I won't be surprised if movies like SLP and ZDT are also-rans and a movie like Life Of Pi starts surgingby the time new year begins.

Good to know. I am hoping for $1.3 billion Worldwide for The Hobbit and it will have to do very well in Russia for this to happen.

So 60 million+ for The Hobbit is the consensus or is it the best case scenario? I didn't see any LOTR movies on the Top 12 list posted on the last page. Are the LOTR movies very popular in Russia ?

I think that is very likely. The only new opener next week is tracking to open at around $5 million.

Skyfall needed a better hold this week as it is going to be hurt really bad by TH1. Not only will it lose all its IMAX theaters (WB contract with IMAX), TH1 is also a 4-quadrant movie.

Must be 5.4-6.0.

Mostly expected numbers. I don't think KTS will get near 10 million with a 2.5-3 million Friday.

BD2 and Skyfall have almost identical Mon-Wed drops. I think BD2 will edge out Skyfall for the weekend if their Thursday holds are similar.

My Final 5 Guess [*]“Cloud Atlas [*]“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey [*]“Life of Pi” [*]“Marvel’s The Avengers [*]“Skyfall”

There is a video of directors' roundtable on THR's website with Van Sant, Ang Lee, Russell, Tarantino, Hooper and Affleck. I don't have the time to watch it right now but it should be interesting.

Liz and Dick got 3.5 million viewers mainly because of Lohan so ,yes, she is going to get more roles. If you can sell a product, you will get paid. However, she won't be getting serious roles but she can still have a decent career.

Based on my twitter feed it wasn't even technically eligible but Weinsteins got it in. Harvey knows what he is doing and it is probably not a good idea to bet against him.

Moonrise Kingdom won the Gotham Independent Film Awards' Best Picture category beating out The Master, Bernie etc. This isn't a major award obviously but MK needs all the buzz it can get in order to land one of the available BP slots.

I think that right now it is between Lincoln and Les Miserables and Lincoln has a not-insignificant advantage. People are talking about ZDT, Argo, SLP etc. but momentum is important. None of these movies has a realistic shot of winning GG or BAFTA. Will any of the Guilds go with ZDT or SLP over Lincoln/Les Miz? Doubtful.Les Miz has better than 50% chance of winning BAFTA and must be a slight favorite over Lincoln at GG so it is going to have the momentum but I think Lincoln is the AMPAS kind of movie and will score wins at Guilds and at other awards to keep its momentum going into March.