My thoughts1. Love the recognition for Paperboy and Nicole Kidman.2. I made this point in another thread that studio dumped Perks so it isn't a surprise that it is going to get bypassed. It isn't an Oscar type of movie anyway so don't expect much from academy either.3. I have been saying for months that Lincoln is the actual frontrunner. It isn't controversial or flashy like some other contenders but it is a workhorse movie by one of the most well-respected directors in Hollywood with one of the most well-respected casts you will ever see and a subject matter that AMPAS members will like. Nothing has changed in the past couple of months.4. Backlash against ZDT has already started. My biggest issue with ZDT has always been that it relies on a very small subset of information base to construct its story and a lot of journalists have already started questioning how accurate the movie is. For a movie that is being marketed as a historically accurate investigative journalism, this can seriously hurt.