Ray G

It's a remake of an existing IP with huge name recognition for Disney. No different from this year's Godzilla being a franchise movie.

It basically turned into a freakin' tent revival in places. I know my local newspaper had an article interviewing the parents who dragged their kids to see it, and subtly gave them the stink-eye while the parents justified their decision. I would be very pleased to see that record fall, mainly due to dislike for the director.

Keep in mind that didn't perform like an R-rated movie at all. Church groups organized screenings. Parents took their children. The religious element of the phenomenon made it a completely different beast.

I thought Guardians of the Galaxy would have been the biggest box office #1 upset of all time, but this would blow that out of the water. First R-rated champion since 1998.

It was never going to win before Best Animated Feature, and it will never win now that the category exists. The only way this could change is if there's a sea change in the way Americans view animation, and animation starts becoming a more common technique to tell mature stories. But even then, I would say it's unlikely because the actors' division will always favor live action.

It's probably unlikely it has a huge opening like this, given that it's an older true story without the recent memory and patriotic appeal of AS, but given the creative pedigree, I could easily see it opening to 50M and having a ridiculously long run culminating in the Oscars. Spielberg/Coens/Hanks - the odds are pretty strong this will be amazing.

I think all of these will be huge hits besides Insurgent. For Aug/Sept/Oct, keep your eye on Crimson Peak (biggest horror release in quite some time) and St. James Place (possibly the second adult drama megahit of the year) to break out.

It seems pretty clear that the animation voters are disinterested in other elements of the film besides the animation, hence why movies with wildly inferior scripts get nominated. They're voting for the best-animated feature, not the best animated feature.

Out. In for January. Sniper should easily top 41M. Out for February. I doubt it'll go above 80M. Out for March. In for April. 95M should be doable for Fast Seven. In for May. Avengers 2 will not decrease. Out for June. I don't think the Jurassic Park brand is 116M strong anymore. Out for July. Out for August. In for September. I think Maze Runner 2 can get enough of a bump to hit 43M Out for October. Crimson Peak will be a hit, but no way does an R-rated horror movie do 56M. In for November. The finale always gets a boost. In for December. Star Wars is going to go much higher than most are predicting.

This. The real crime is the inclusion of The Boxtrolls, which got mediocre reviews overall, over both The Lego Movie and The Book of Life.

I would assume so. They're going to be using a lot of the most famous Goosebumps monsters.

Yeah, I have no idea why this wasn't moved there. Crimson Peak will own October, but it's an R-rated film that looks to be more cerebral than your average horror fare. This would have fit right in.

Spider-man 2 - 9/10 The Amazing Spider-man - 8.5/10 Spider-man - 6/10 Spider-man 3 - 4/10 The Amazing Spider-man 2 - 2/10

Ninjago seems like a movie that was in development for a while and they then realized they could retrofit it into this new franchise and double the gross. I'm expecting only some tentative connections between that and the rest of the franchise.

Yeah, I had actually forgotten that Burton wasn't coming back. Scrap this one off my list.

I think that, Civil War, and a Han Solo film if that's what it turns out to be are all but locked for 400M. BvS could easily get there, unless it has Man of Steel-like legs. Out of them, I would place my bets on Civil War, though.

Bond and MIB/Jump Street, if it comes to be, will be the biggest hit here. Ghostbusters could do very well, or it could do "The Heat" numbers if the original fans don't show up. Besides Bond, nothing here will likely be in the year's top ten, though. And that's if Bond doesn't lose buzz after SPECTRE. I also doubt there'll be any Sony Spider-man movie in 2017 or ever again.

Disney's 2016 contenders to win the year: Captain America 3: Civil War - Cap vs. Iron Man in what will likely be Avengers 2.5. Finding Dory - the long-awaited sequel to a movie that held the record for all-time animated champ for seven years. Moana - The first installment in the Disney Princess line since the biggest animated hit of all time. Already building a ton of buzz. Untitled Star Wars Spin-Off - Really depends on what it is, but if it's a recognizable character, could easily do 450M coming off a gigantic Episode VII. Alice in Wonderland II - Good trailers could get this to 350M easily, putting it in the thick of things. Other 2016 contenders: Batman vs. Superman - a heavyweight, but coming off a massively divisive last installment in the series. Possible. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - Likely a huge hit, but I can't see it being bigger than the biggest Harry Potter, and that's unlikely. Avatar II - I am skeptical that we will be seeing this one any time soon. If it makes 2016, it's a contender - but the novelty could also wear off and give it a gross in the 350 range. Independence Day 2 - In my dreams, this will be a gigantic hit, but I worry that too long has passed. I don't give anything else out this year much chance to win. Looking at the 5 Disney contenders vs. the four non-Disney contenders, I would give 75% odds that it's one of the Disney films that wins the year.

WiB2 is doing the standard horror thing - bigger than expected opening day, likely followed by disastrous legs.

I think BOO was pulled out of 2015, wasn't it? Dreamworks is really falling apart.

Don't forget, though, Unbroken has a strong following among the faith-based movie crowd. It could be that the "Son of God" crowd came out for the opening weekend and inflated things a bit, which would hurt the legs. No way of knowing until we see the second week numbers, but this isn't completely a standard adult drama in terms of its audience. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people who don't go to the movies that often came out for this one.

Impressive for Unbroken. That PG-13 is paying off. Incredible for Into the Woods, given the screen count!

Looks good. Here's hoping this is a rebound from The Boxtrolls, the only Laika movie that I didn't like.

I'm not sure about opening, but this should do great business and rack up a ton of Oscar noms before they find something else to give it to like they did for every great Spielberg movie since Schindler's List.

I do imagine the IPs of Shrek, Dragon, and Madagascar would be pretty appealing to them if they could snap it up at a low price.