Cynosure

In English-speaking countries it's clearly going to be a record breaking movie. Elsewhere, probably not nearly as much.

If these estimates are true then I don't understand why Disney refused to give the numbers.

619 200 admissions first day in France according to cine directors.

Embarrassing.

Unless China massively surprises I don't think it's doing $2 billion WW.

Apparently Disney refuses to give first day French numbers. They must be quite disappointed with a first day number probably below that of The Minions (596 291). They'll probably wait for 5 or 7 day numbers where TFA should pull ahead.

They're wrong. If anything it's second biggest of the year.

In France, back in 2005.

SWIII did 642k first day on a non-holiday.

Paris+suburbs 2 pm : 36,360. http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/star-wars-france-records-1201662972/

Is HK usually a good indication of what might happen in mainland China, or not at all ?

It's beating Spectre's OW easily. That one was 2.2M and was affected by the attacks too.

He's overpredicting imo. I'd say 3.5M max.

HPDH2 : 10.736 (5th biggest 2 pm Paris total in the HP franchise)

No, these totals are all Paris 2 pm. It wouldn't make sense to compare a 2 pm result to full day Paris totals. I don't think it will beat any first day records, especially since this Wednesday is a working day (unlike Spectre and Spider Man 3's opening days). But then evening sessions tend to attract more people in december, so who knows...

16.415 admissions in Paris by 2 pm. http://www.commeaucinema.com/box-office/demarrage-paris To see how it compares to top 2015, top all time and top SW : SWIII ended up doing 3.303.005 first week and 7.247.000 total.

¥12.70 billion/8.30 million - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999) ¥9.35 billion/6.80 million - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002) ¥9.17 billion/6.60 million - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005) ¥4.95 billion/ < 5 million - Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back (1980) ¥5.30 billion/ < 5 million - Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi (1983)

I thought AOU being a mediocre movie and having poor WOM in China could have hurt their brand but it looks like it didn't. Maybe it will impact Avengers: Infinity War a bit but the market will have grown so much by then that it will be hard to tell.

The Little Prince is showing some decent longevity despite the cut in showings.

Impressive numbers from Ant-man. Conan is basically following The Little Prince's run with just slightly higher numbers. It's no Doraemon but it's doing pretty decent for a poorly reviewed movie which came out 6 months ago in Japan.

Oh dear Pan...Will it even reach $10 million ?

Don't be ridiculous. At an average price of say $10 per ticket, 2 billion dollars in pre-sale revenue would mean that 200 million people worldwide have already pre-ordered their ticket. Real numbers are probably not even 10% of that. People will believe anything these days. A bit of common sense please.

I don't think we'll necessarily see monthly drops year-on-year. Sure, there might not be a new FF7 or new MH, JBM and TMK at the same time but the overall market growth is only driven partly by these huge blockbusters. The rest of the market growth is due to medium-sized blockbusters as well as smaller movies making more and more and with screens still being built and the market still being far from maturity we should continue to see those expand. You'll definitely have slower months but it will take more than the lack of a big blockbuster to fall in negative territory.

What are your predictions for those two movies ?