boxofficefreak

Removing 25.2m previews and an inflated 1st Sunday (est 7.3mil, 20% drop) you'll get a real weekend of $169.5mil BP 2nd wknd drop = 111.66/169.5 = -34.12% drop Removing same preview #s and any inflated Sundays from WW, Avengers, JW Movie 2nd Wknd Drop 3rd Wknd Drop Coef BP Third Wknd Drop WW 36.5% 34% 0.931 -31.76% Avengers 45.4% 46% 1.013 -34.563% JW 48.3% 48.8% 1.010 -34.46% Prediction based on average of all three comps = 74.14 Million Could be wrong, but why not?

Don't really care too much for the SW hate and the incessant arguing. Just posting this for any others who came here from BOM for #s. Funny tidbit, last time I did this, I was only fractions off Spiderman 3 box office after the OW....by fractions I meant off by 215 million. haha https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KfZlwKwV9rYOCwSINUOHwwY69SRlq6mf/view?usp=sharing If anyone can embed the jpeg onto the post for easier viewing, that would be great!

@keysersoze123 It was only one poster (me). I said it in jest, and then got suckered into a response.

Agreed. Developing countries in LA particularly Mexico, compounded with the insurmountable admissions gap in China proved too much to overcome for TFA.

WEEKEND ESTIMATES BOX-OFFICE (du 3 au 9 février 2016) Rang Titre Entrées Variation hebdo Cumul (Millions) Budget Nbre de salles 1 Les Tuche 2 - Le rêve américain 1 200 000 New 1,200 - M€ 603 2 Chocolat 520 000 New 0,520 - M€ 525 3 Alvin et les Chipmunks - A fond la caisse 480 000 New 0,480 90 M$ 582 4 La 5ème vague 320 000 - 25 % 0,749 38 M$ 409 5 Point break 230 000 New 0,230 105 M$ 379 6 Les saisons 235 000 - 35 % 0,595 - M€ 488 7 Creed 165 000 - 40 % 1,517 35 M$ 456 8 Spotlight 160 000 - 20 % 0,358 - M$ 208 9 Encore heureux 145 000 - 35 % 0,369 - M€ 301 10 Star wars - Le réveil de la Force 120 000 - 35 % 10,270 200 M$ 519 - The boy 115 000 - 35 % 0,290 10 M$ 152 - Les huit salopards 105 000 - 40 % 1,725 44 M$ 604 - Dirty papy 105 000 New 0,105 - M$ 248 - Steve Jobs 100 000 New 0,100 30 M$ 140 - Tout schuss 75 000 - 35 % 0,556 - M€ 354 - Jane got a gun 60 000 - 45 % 0,111 25 M$ 301 - Dofus - Livre 1 : Julith 50 000 New 0,050 - M€ 131 - Anomalisa 25 000 New 0,025 8 M$ 62 - La terre et l'ombre 15 000 New 0,015 - M$ 52

BOX-OFFICE France (du 27 janvier au 2 février 2016) (Prévisions) Rang TITRE Entrées Variation hebdo Cumul (Millions) Budget Nbre de copies Moy / Copie 1 La 5ème vague 435 000 New 0,435 38 M$ 409 1 064 2 Les saisons 360 000 New 0,360 - M€ 488 738 3 Creed 280 000 - 32 % 1,354 35 M$ 456 614 4 Encore heureux 225 000 New 0,225 - M€ 301 748 5 Spotlight 200 000 New 0,200 - M$ 208 962 6 Star wars - Le réveil de la Force 190 000 - 33 % 10,154 200 M$ 519 366 7 Les huit salopards 180 000 - 34 % 1,622 44 M$ 604 298 8 The boy 175 000 New 0,175 10 M$ 152 1 151 9 Tout schuss 115 000 - 31 % 0,484 - M€ 354 325 10 Jane got a gun 110 000 New 0,110 25 M$ 301 365 11 45 ans 75 000 New 0,075 - M€ 105 714 12 Carol 75 000 - 25 % 0,342 - M$ 238 315 13 The danish girl 65 000 - 45 % 0,183 - M$ 267 243 14 Les délices de Tokyo 65 000 New 0,065 - M€ 91 714 15 Demain 60 000 - 3 % 0,563 1,5 M€ 330 182 16 Les chevaliers blancs 50 000 - 48 % 0,147 9 M€ 144 347 17 Babysitting 2 48 000 - 41 % 3,243 9,4 M€ 228 211 18 Tout en haut du monde 45 000 New 0,045 6,1 M€ 144 313 19 Legend 47 000 - 57 % 0,157 - M$ 223 211 20 Le convoi 42 000 - 56 % 0,138 5,5 M€ 148 284 - Les premiers, les derniers 40 000 New 0,040 - M€ 108 370 - The big short - 000 - 24 % 0,776 28 M$ 302 190

Although the theatre/screen count might decrease over the next several weeks, based on current trajectory why wouldn't 12B be in play? Alice made 20 million more (equiv of 1.8BYEN). Corpse made references that it could get much closer to TPM 12.7B when it's all said and done.

*removed last link, no correlation to actual French releases. TFA is listed as $86.3 Million source - Deadline France Box Office January 27–31, 2016 (US $1 = 0.9231 Euro) < Prev Wk Currency: Return to Index US Dollars Euro Next Wk > TW LW Movie Studio Weekend Gross Change Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week 1 N The 5th Wave Sony $2,626,510 - 409 - $6,422 $2,691,844 1 2 N Les saisons (Seasons) Pathé $2,076,724 - 456 - $4,554 $2,076,724 1 4 N Encore heureux Europa $1,317,611 - 301 - $4,377 $1,317,611 1 5 2 Star Wars: The Force Awakens Disney $1,309,680 -32.6% 519 -171 $2,523 $80,582,494 7 7 N The Boy (2016) Metropolitan $1,081,839 - 152 - $7,117 $1,081,839 1 8 3 The Hateful Eight SND $1,057,142 -33.3% 604 -8 $1,750 $11,252,077 4 9 4 Tout schuss SND $721,809 -30.5% 354 -22 $2,039 $3,332,243 3 10 N Jane Got a Gun Mars $632,836 - 301 - $2,102 $632,836 1 11 7 Carol UGC $421,483 -25.1% 238 +72 $1,771 $2,310,137 3 12 N 45 Years Ad Vitam $415,630 - 105 - $3,958 $415,630 1 13 5 The Danish Girl UPI $366,636 -45.5% 267 -2 $1,373 $1,203,763 2 14 8 Les chevaliers blancs (The White Knights) Le Pacte $285,812 -47.7% 259 +75 $1,104 $968,473 2 15 6 Legend Studio Canal $279,519 -56.6% 223 - $1,253 $1,059,593 2 16 9 Le convoi (2016) PPI $234,407 -56.4% 148 -2 $1,584 $913,048 2 17 N Les premiers, les derniers Wild Bunch $219,281 - 108 - $2,030 $219,281 1 18 16 Spectre

Jonathan, these are the type of posts that gets neg reps haha. We are all BO junkies, forever waiting for that next hit. There is no emotion; there is peace.

$0.02 Yeah but then you have everyone and their brothers chiming in, with posts designed to elicit responses (trolling). All the back and forth banter becomes annoying AF. But I digress, I shouldn't be talking with a freebie account. =)

Hey, off topic but great job posting updates/tweets. You are a machine!!!

He was just cracking a joke at TFA's expense. I believe there's a line "no need to get your....."

Yeah pretty close to your 875 estimate so you weren't that far off. It's on target for a bit over 900 and 2B (1b-China is goal)

Damn I'm oblivious and late to news

Twas merely suggesting that from a biz side, webrankings as follows (Alexa,ranking.com,etc) 579 hollywoodreporter.com 6 The Hollywood Reporter 140,446 7,335 boxofficemojo.com 3 N/A 71,604 19,901 boxoffice.com 2 N/A 20,115 20,711 the-numbers.com 5 N/A 33,421 31,384 boxofficeguru.com 3 N/A 14,220 Why wouldn't BO invest in data and analytics (as well as internet mktg strategies) to shore up more market share? P.S. @cjohn response, I will contribute soon enough haha

I'm pretty sure they (excluding RTH) has access to Rentrak, either through jobs at industry or major at Uni (Film and Media, Data Analysts, Investors and Relations). With Rentrak, that have real time data of boxoffice #s of regional boxoffice chains or collections of theatres and extrapolate those #s out. Rth is a huge mystery though, he's been doing it since BOM days in like 2003 and he's in a class all by himself. P.S. If there was enough support, pretty sure we could convince BO.com to sync up with Rentrak and allow moderators access to Rentrak. Might even grow the site by taking marketshare/readers away from Deadline/THR/BOM, etc

Humble bragging haha

Gitesh has been an BO analyst for almost 2 decades. BOguru has been up since 1997, so it's not hard to believe that he tracked admissions for Titanic during it's initial run.

Final tally - O/U $88M / 81.4€

to challenge a man's credibility is causation for a death duel.

Wow, you are a moderator?? feels like decades ago when you were going crazy for spidey on BOM.

Sooner or later you'll see the force. The domestic total is going to approach 1 Billion though. IMHO, I think most forum-ers would enjoy quality analysis rather than "I am wise enough to know that my opinion is likely to be wrong, so I never bet on it. " Although, that's exactly what I use to do when BOM was still around. I was so dead set on #s projections that I spent hours on mathematic models tracking say, the SM3 movie. When I was dreadfully wrong (predicted 555 million upon the 151 wknd) rather than eating crow, I just became a lurker rather than an avid poster haha. Again, I'm not attacking your analysis....but if you know it'll be higher, maybe join the force?

Happy birthday Baumer. Just as I msg'ed Shaun a few years back- great job promoting the website/forum and mod role.....oh yeah that RTH # isn't that bad too. =)

better to err on the side of caution than being optimistic I see? Haven't been good on your predictions...120 million 2nd wknd? Don't be a contrarian just b/c. There was a guy named Kal-El that has been shitted on in the forums for a good portion of the decade because of it. =) {Won't change my opinion even if it hits 20 million}

Tyranny I must say it's nice to see you back. You were one of my fav posters on BOM back in the day, you were one of the first to fashioned the term "extrapolate" when analyzing boxoffice data. I hope you are well.