James

So maybe 8-8.5m for SW's 3-day weekend? 75-80m is where this seems to be headed.

That seems like a bad drop for SW, especially compared to the The Hobbit movies and with much less competition. I know they started a bit lower, but still. TH3 made almost 900k adm in it's 3rd weekend and that had Honig im Kopf (750k adm) and Exodus (350k adm) opening. And TH2 made 1.1m in it's second and it wasnt helped by the actual Christmas days like this was. Is it the fact that Christmas was on Friday? Were the theaters closed?

Done reading this thread. This forum is so fuckin addictive. Insane for SW and great for Daddy's Home. Always said that will be a hit. It just looks to funny not to be. Also Tele...

I think Deadpool will flop. SH movies are not that huge here. Ant-Man, with the Marvel brand and all still underperormed. As for a fantasy epic that was released here at the beginning of the year: Seventh Son this year.

I know about ROTS. That presentation of Inferno was copy/paste from the one I did last year, when it was poised to open against SW7, hence the ROTS comparison. I think Gods of Egypt will do fantastic. Just look at Dracula Untold, Legend of Hercules (which flopped everywhere else but was massive here), Hercules, The Last Which Hunter, Pompeii, 47 Ronin, Clash of the Titans, Wrath of the Titans, Robin Hood, 300. Immortals was the third highest grossing movie of 2011. Noah did 1.4m last year and Exodus did over 0.5m without any help from Cinema City which is just incredible. I'm having a really hard time to find a fantasy medieval epic movie which flopped here. Maybe Snow White and the Huntsman or Jack the Giant Slayer. But those wore fairy tales recycles and those are hit and miss.

Using the epicness of a LOTR speech to describe some average franchise should be punishable by law

I see the Romania box office part of BOM is back up and running but their numbers from earlier this year are awfully off (they reported MJ2 gross to be over $2m a few werks back and now they are reporting $1m, both being wrong - same with all the other movies) and even the numbers from this week are too big. It is likely they take the number of adm and multiply it by the average ticket price which is stupid, considering there are 1000 different types of discounts. I don't know where they get their numbers from but they are far from exact.

2016 MARKET PREVIEW Even though 2015 will end up a bit lower than 2014 in USD, due to the exchange rate, the market growth continues at a steady rate (the Romanian market grew with by around 1m admissions every year for the past 3 years) and 2016 looks to continue the trend, being even more crowded with potentially huge hits than 2015 was. Here you have my predictions for what I think will be the top movies of 2016. 1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – $2.3m Even though most of the prequels, spin-offs, sequels have no problem increasing here from the originals, I think what The Force Awakens did was a perfect storm that can’t really be replicated, so a drop is in order. Still, Rogue One will be massive. 2. Ice Age: Collision Course – $2.1m Back in 2009, Ice Age 3 made $2.3m. In 2012, Ice Age 4 made $1.9m even though it sold more admissions than the previous film. With a much bigger market, expect this to give Rogue One a serious battle for the title of biggest movie of the year. Either way, it’ll be the biggest movie of the summer. 3. Independence Day: Resurgence – $1.6m Back in 1996, Independence Day sold over 600.000 admissions and it is currently the 12th most attended movie ever. Of course that sum cannot be reached by the sequel, but even so the big action spectacle all but guarantees huge numbers for this. 4. Alice Through the Looking Glass – $1.5m Alice in Wonderland was the top grossing movie in 2010, with a huge $1.5m. Considering the market has doubled in size since then, I’m expecting this to make pretty much the same total, even with the worse ER (it will likely be released exclusively in 3D so the 3D ratio will be even better than in 2010 – more screens). 5. Warcraft - $1.4m This might turn out to be an outrageously stupid prediction, but this movie embodies the Romanian market taste so well. The epic fantasy genre is ALWAYS a hit here (see The Hobbit, Pirates of the Caribbean, 300: Rise of an Empire, Seventh Son, Hercules, The Legend of Hercules, Immortals, Noah, Pompeii, Dracula Untold etc.). Also, the trailer gets good reactions every time I see it. Combine that with the brand recognition and you have a potentially huge hit on your hands. 6. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice – $1.3m This is another risky prediction. The Dark Knight Rises made over $1m back in 2012. Man of Steel wasn’t THAT big, but was still a hit. The fact that it’s the first big SH movie of the year, the market expansion and the great reactions to the trailers (plus the exclusive 3D release this will certainly get) make me believe BvS will easily outgross TDKR. 7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – $1.2m As I said before, prequels/spin-offs and sequels have no problem increasing here over originals and seeing how back in 2011, when the market was much smaller than now, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 made almost $1m, I fully expect Fantastic Beasts to make more than that. 8. Captain America: Civil War – $1.15m Captain America: The Winter Soldier made $900k in 2014, while both The Avengers and The Avengers: Age of Ultron made a bit over $1.2m. The only Marvel movie that broke the chain was Thor 2, which is currently the highest grossing CBM flick, with $1.47m. I am seeing Civil War coming somewhere in the middle. 9. Gods of Egypt – $1.1m Same reasons as Warcraft. 10. Inferno - $1m It’s worth noting that in 2006, ‘The Da Vinci Code’ sold more tickets and beat ROTS by far, being no.1 for the year. In 2009, ‘Angels and Demons’ was no. 11 for the year, despite making the same money as ‘Da Vinci’. In the meantime, inflation became a huge factor and the Dan Brown brand grew immensely (‘Inferno’ was the best-selling book in the country in 2013 and that despite the fact that it was released only three months before the end of the year and it continued to sell well in 2014). The market now is 12-13x bigger than it was when The Da Vinci Code was released and 2.5x bigger than when Angels & Demons opened. Other movies with $1m potential are (in no particular order): - Now You See Me 2 (the first movie made almost $1.1m) - X-Men: Apocalypse - Kung Fu Panda 3 - The Divergent Series: Allegiant - The Jungle Book - Finding Dory - The Legend of Tarzan - The Great Wall - Moana

I think it will have a lead, but not a huge one. Remember tomorrow is the Christmas day. I dunno about other markets, but here 90% of the theaters are closed and the ones open have very few shows. I think this happens in other markets as well. So the weekend-to-weekend drop might be bigger than you think.

For now, 750.000 adm seems like absolutely the best case scenario. It all depends on the post-new year drops, that are usually quite big. And there are a lot of movies releasing, especially on Jan 8. IMO, it will end up in the 600.000 - 700.000 adm area. After this weekend we'll have a clearer picture about it.

Star Wars' weekdays were pretty strong but tomorrow (Friday 25th) most theaters are closed and today there were very few shows till 4-5PM and none after that so I imagine it will be quite hard or even impossible for SW to match The Hobbit 3's -22% hold (last year, Christmas day was on a Thursday). Still, I hope for over 200.000 admissions for the week (biggest week ever in adm is FF7's first week with 210.625).

I see. Thanks for the info. Yeah. After this coming weekend the RO market will break through the 11m admissioon border for the first time ever. The increase is about 1m adm every year which is pretty big.

@quigquag33 I see that the Greek market is more or less similar to the Romanian one in terms of admissions. How is it in USD (I'm guessing the ticket prices are way bigger than here)? How many adm are sold yearly?

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE Just like in the last couple of years, the tradition of the last two weekends of December being the among the biggest of the year continued and all because of Star Wars amazing with it's debut. - Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened with a record breaking $953k. The previous record holder, Fast and Furious 7, opened with $899k earlier this year. Star Wars also broke Fast's record debut in local currency. In admissions though, The Force Awakens fell short of the record. It sold 175.276 tickets in the 3-day frame, compared to the 196.210 of Furious 7. All in all, it is a great and surprising debut for Star Wars, towards which a large sum of factors contributed: First of all, it was the huge number of showings: I always expected TFA to have the widest release ever, because Disney always has the biggest reach in term of screens, but even so I was amazed by the absolutely huge numbers of screens: 182. That is a big ass jump from the previous record holder (Inside Out, with 121) and it dwarfs the 75 screens Fast and Furious 7 played on. Second, there was the ticket price: Star Wars was available exclusively in 3D, IMAX 3D and in the 4DX format. And third, there was the marketing (the biggest marketing push ever executed here) and the empty market place. - As for the rest of the movies in Top 10, the only ones worth talking about are Love the Coopers, which continues to impress, dropping 34% from last week and reaching a very good $505k and Krampus, which eased a light 18% (a jaw-dropping hold for a horror movie). Top 10 Next week's openers: - The Peanuts Movie - All Gone South This coming weekend is traditionally the biggest weekend of the year and will have the lightest drops (The Hobbit dropped only 22% last year from it's monster debut). Star Wars will rule again and could have the biggest week ever in terms of admissions and USD. The Peanuts Movie will likely end in the 20.000 adm area for the 3-day holiday and All Gone South will debut under that number. It's also important to note that, since we receive information about the box office only once a week, Sunday will be the last day in the 2015 box office year. I will have a report for the overall year as well as predictions for the biggest movies of 2016 so stay close. Top 10 Highest Grossing movies of 2015 ***The bolded titles are still in theatres

Mojin is heading for 300m+ right. Can it become the highest grossing movie ever in China? It's days seem huge.

Well it kind of is to this extent. Batman vs. Superman is popular but I don't expect it's going to open more than 50m higher than MOS. Again, I was talking about Potter and FB OS, not BvS. Trimis de pe al meu SM-J100H folosind Tapatalk

Then open the club so I can talk about it there.[emoji14]

It is, when talking about 240+mil opening weekends. I was talking about FB OS... Trimis de pe al meu SM-J100H folosind Tapatalk

You are only making it worse. We all know that it's a rare possibility. It's actually very possible. People act like SW is the only thing that can have huge nostalgia a multigenerational audiences on it's side. Trimis de pe al meu SM-J100H folosind Tapatalk

If you think BvS OW over SW OW is crazy, just wait till my FB OS > TFA OS thread. Trimis de pe al meu SM-J100H folosind Tapatalk

After that mess of a trailer? That mess of a trailer was literary the only trailer that every single person I was with liked. The rest were liked by some or the others. So I dont think that online opinions are representative for the GA at all.

Yet he struggled against a normal storm trooper in a one on one fight, made no sense Lol right?

I don't really care if you're in the BvS over TFA OW club, but I have to ask why? Because I already predicted around 230m for BvS and WB is better at marketing than Disney so another 20m is not a huge stretch.

Youre Romanian yes? Yup. Okay, I see what you mean. It's actually a good analogy. Like the Soviet Union fell, so will the SW record. [emoji14] Trimis de pe al meu SM-J100H folosind Tapatalk

You are so lucky the soviet union collapsed. I am sure you would be locked up in the gulag for life, which is about 3 years life expectancy. Thank Ronald Reagan your alive! Lol what? The previous record lasted a few months. This will be the same. Either way, I wanna ener that club and I cant. And what's the connection with the Soviet Union? Im not from Russia.