Wrath

There’s a spoiler thread?

Hmm. The action was fun, and the atmosphere was great, but that was some of the most ham-handed characterization I’ve ever seen. I think the reviews are about right.

Ticket sales around here are a little lower than I (probably optimistically) expected. Hard to calibrate whether its $115M OW underwhelming or $135M OW underwhelming.

Having crunched the numbers (through week 8), I'm pretty confident that League 2 (us) is clearly the toughest league of the 5. We've got: - Highest average score: 83.98 Then it goes: League 1 83.66, League 5 82.98, League 3 at 82.69 and League 4 at 82.15. Worth noting is that Leagues 1 and 5 both have a person who has missed every round and has a "0" score. I excluded them and just gave them an average off the 9 who have actually played. - Highest Median score: 85.575 Then it goes: League 4 83.63, League 1 83.31, League 5 82.92, League 3 82.36. I left in the 0, but it just counts as the lowest scoring player, so their median is the average of their #5 and #6 players like everyone else. If I let 1 and 5 use their #5 player instead of the average, it would help them but not enough to catch us. They'd go to 84.09 and 83.9, respectively, good for 2nd place and 3rd place. Its debatable which method is fairer, but either way they're behind us. - What really makes League 2 tough is its depth. In each league, I ordered the players by average score and compared across leagues (so, #1 person compared to the other #1 people, #2 person vs other #2 people, etc). The league with the highest scoring at the various positions goes: #1 - League 4 (Bates 89.9) #2 - League 4 (which is kind of cheating, because its Exxdee, who has an 89.08, but they've missed at least 3 weeks and the "0"s are excluded from the overall average) #3 - League 4 (Tower 87.86) #4 - League 4 (Premium George 86.62) At this point, it looks like League 4 is going to run away with it, right? But that's why you have to go to the end before calling the winner. #5 - League 2 (me 86.01, remember, this is ranking by average score and I have the 5th best average score in League 2) #6 - League 2 (JMorphin 85.14) #7 - League 2 (FancyArcher 84) #8 - League 2 (GambitPool 81.79) #9 - League 2 (JJ-8 79.62) Finally, another league gets into the action: #10 - League 3 (franfar 74.93) And while League 4 won the top slots, they tended to win narrowly. But when we won the middle slots, we won by a LOT, and League 4 especially falls off badly in the later slots. FancyArcher's 84 would have been good for either 5th, or RIGHT on the heels of whoever was 5th (84.09 vs 84.00 in League 1, for example). But because League 2 is so deep, its only good for 7th. Anyway, I hope you found the fruits of my procrastination interesting.

wk9 - No

Shoot! I've been busy and didn't see this until now. I'm happy to hang around the edges and cackle menacingly! Or, I'm willing to come back as a new player, since MY EVIL TWIN POISONED ME AND GAVE ME AMNESIA! DUN DUN DUNNNNNH!

1. Will Jurassic World Open to more than $125M? 1000 YES 2. Will Jurassic World to more than $140M? 2000 NO 3. Will Jurassic World Open to more than $132.5M? 3000 NO 4. Will Jurassic World's Saturday increase from its true Friday (excluding Thursday previews)? 4000 YES 5. Will Jurassic World's top 2 days' gross only still be enough to top the box office this weekend? 5000 NO 6. Will Incredibles make more than $80M? 1000 YES 7. Will Incredibles make more than $100M 2000 NO 8. Will Incredibles make more than $90M 3000 YES 9. Will any film in the top 10 drop more than 67.5%? 4000 NO 10. Will Hereditary's PTA stay above $1,400? 5000 YES 11. Will Solo stay above Deadpool? 1000 NO 12. Will Superfly stay above Avengers? 2000 NO 13. Will Ocean's 8 cross $100M by the end of the weekend? 3000 NO 14. Will Adrift increase more than 45% on Friday? 4000 NO 15. Will Tag increase more than 28.5% on Saturday? 5000 NO 16. Will Race drop more than 64%? 1000 YES 17. WillTag have a higher PTA than Ocean's 8? 2000 NO 18. Will A Wrinkle in Time drop more than 70%? 3000 YES 19. Will Gotti stay in the top 12? 4000 YES 20. Will this weekend be Blank Panthers turn to have a 2000% Friday increase? 5000 Not yet. I think they'll give it another weekend or two so it won't be as obvious. Bonus: 12/20 3000 13/20 5000 14/20 8000 15/20 12000 16/20 16,000 17/20 20,000 18/20 26,000 19/20 32,000 20/20 40,000 SUPER BONUS RISK QUESTION OF DEATH! Will Jurassic World open to more than $150M AND Incredibles stay above $100M? NO Answer No: Correct is 2,000 points, incorrect is no loss Answer Yes: Correct is 15,000 points, incorrect is minus 15,000 points Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Jurassic World make for its 3 day OW? 131M 2. What will Deadpool's Sunday gross be? 1.45M 3. What will Wrinkle in times percentage change be? -96% Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Ocean's 8 5. DP2 7. Hereditary 8. A:IW 10. Gotti 12. Won't you be my Neighbor?

My streak comes to an end. Didn't have a bad week at all, but Furiosa crushed it.

I’m stupidly excited for this. I’m not at all sure it’ll be big, but its possible and I’m pulling for it.

Not letting me log in.

1. Will Incredibles 2 Open to more than $130M? 1000 YES 2. Will Incredibles 2 Open to more than $150M? 2000 YES 3. Will Incredibles 2 Open to more than $140M? 3000 YES 4. Will Tag open to more than $12.5M? 4000 YES 5. Will Tag make more than 8% of Incredibles 2's total gross? 5000 YES 6. Will Will Superfly have a 3 day above $7.5M? 1000 NO 7. Will Race 3 enter in the top 8? 2000 NO 8. Will Ocean's 8 stay above $20M? 3000 NO 9. Will Solo stay in the top 4? 4000 YES 10. Will Deadpool's PTA stay above $2,750? 5000 YES 11. Will Book club increase more than 20% on Friday? 1000 NO 12. Will Incredibles decrease more than 15% on Saturday? 2000 YES 13. Will Upgrade stay above Life of the Party? 3000 YES 14. Will Avengers drop more than 24.5% on Sunday? 4000 NO 15. Will there be a Stan Lee Cameo this weekend? 5000 Sure. A:IW is still in the theaters. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Incredibles make for its 3 day? 158M 2. What will Adrift's percentage change be? -53% 3. What will Hereditary's PTA be for the Weekend? 2,100 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Ocean's 8 4. Solo 6. Superfly 7. Hereditary 9. Book Club 11. Artemis

Wk8 - No

Black Panther $700M - Yes - 2,000 Avengers $675M - Yes - 25,000 Incredibles 2 $450M - Yes - 15,000 Deadpool $300M - Yes - 10,000 Solo -$200M - Yes - 8,000 Ocean's 8 $125M - Yes - 20,000 Blockers $60M - Yes - 6,000 Overboard $50M - Yes - 4,000

I don't know if its better than 11, but its certainly better than the sequels. It really is a female-equivalent to 11. I did like 11 more, but that's almost besides the point because more than anything it was *different*. Plus, it was a lot of fun, and smart in a lot of little ways. Its the movie Ghostbusters *wishes* it had been.

Prior to this week's results, looking at Furiosa's and GambitPool's respective average scores and records is an exercise in saying "How the hell did THAT happen?"

Cashing out feels really good right now.

Yeah, that's the thing. After looking at enough comps, I decided Han is *probably* right, but it felt like a 55/45 split which felt too expensive to gamble on.

Weekly question is a lot tougher this week. Seldom have I felt so comfortable cashing out.

1. Will Ocean's 8 Open to more than $36M? 1000 YES 2. Will Ocean's 8 Open to more than $42M? 2000 YES 3. Will Hereditary open to more than $6M? 3000 YES 4. Will Hereditary open to more than $8.8M? 4000 YES 5. Will The top 2 new entries combine to more than $50M? 5000 YES 6. Will Hotel Artemis open to more than $3.75M? 1000 NO 7. Will Hotel Artemis open to more than $5M? 2000 NO 8. Will Solo stay in the top 2? 3000 YES 9. Will Deadpool fall less than 48%? 4000 YES 10. Will Life of the Party's PTA stay above $1,000? 5000 YES 11. Will Action Point drop more than 60% on Friday? 1000 NO 12. Will Overboard increase more than 55% on Saturday? 2000 NO 13. Will Book Club drop less than 32%? 3000 NO 14. Will Adrift stay above Avengers? 4000 NO 15. Will it turn out that this was only called Ocean's 8, so that the trilogy can use up 9 and 10 without encroaching on the original titles? 5000 I'd assumed this was the case. Starting at 14 was the other option, and going from 14 to 16 would have been silly. It does assume the movie does well, though. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Ocean's 8 make for its 3 day? 40M 2. What will Action Point's percentage change be? -1,000,000% 3. What will Upgrade's PTA be for the Weekend? 2,650 Part 😄 There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. DP2 5. AIW 7. Book Club 8. Upgrade 10. Life of the Party 12. Quiet Place

That’s just crazy! My average prediction score is 6th best out of the 10 in my group! One doesn’t, almost, but not quite, make it into the top half of one’s group without being a semi-formidible-ish opponent! If that doesn’t scream “excellent” then I don’t know what to tell you... because that’s the best argument I’ve thought of so far.

"Good... Bad... I'm the one with the gun." "Klaatu... Verata... N... Necktie. Nectar. Nickle. Noodle." Both from Army of Darkness.

Hmm. Wk7 - Cashout

Wow. Kind of impressive how badly Action Point did. Didn't expect much, but 1/2 of Upgrade's total is worse than I expected.

@JJ-8 Um, did you enter predicts this week? I’ve heard of people saying “facing me is like getting a bye”, but i didn’t think it was literally true.

Happy birthday, my fake son.