KP1025

It looks like Deadline updated TLJ numbers again. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 4,232 theaters (0)/ $6.8M Fri (-64%)/3-day: $23.8M (-55%)/Total:$572.8M/ Wk 4

I guess we're getting a Jumanji Cinematic Universe.

I guess we were too hasty predicting $150 million for it. Though this was before anyone saw Ex-File 3 breakout of this magnitude.

Universal is also the only studio with 3 films that have earned over $1 billion OS (FF7+8, JW). Very impressive.

With lower numbers than expected in China, it looks like TLJ will be in a very close race for #8 worldwide.

Transformers 5 is another, but that dropped big from TF4 everywhere.

And then you have Avatar, which made over $1.8 billion OS without China. 1 Avatar Fox $2,788.0 $760.5 27.3% $2,027.5 72.7% 2009^

Looks like it. Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony Pictures $6,918,854 -32% 3,765 $1,838 $202,350,752 15 2 (2) Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… Walt Disney $5,225,332 -34% 4,232 $1,235 $544,613,735 20 3 (3) The Greatest Showman 20th Century Fox $2,627,249 -28% 3,316 $792 $60,721,504 15 4 (4) Pitch Perfect 3 Universal $2,265,195 -33% 3,468 $653 $73,828,655 13 5 (5) Ferdinand 20th Century Fox $1,725,595 -32% 3,337 $517 $61,268,677 20 6 (6) Coco Walt Disney $1,246,854 -28% 2,104 $593 $185,443,211 43 7 (8) Darkest Hour Focus Features $778,545 -17% 943 $826 $21,372,667 43 8 (7) All the Money in the World Sony Pictures $703,807 -25% 2,074 $339 $15,987,175 10 9 (9) Downsizing Paramount Pictures $632,255 -31% 2,664 $237 $20,251,632 13 10 (12) The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight $558,932 -16% 756 $739 $18,085,313 34 11 (11) Father Figures Warner Bros. $467,119 -32% 2,902 $161 $15,188,848 13 12 (13) Molly’s Game STX Entertainment $357,125 -15% 271 $1,318 $6,913,420 10 13 (14) Lady Bird A24 $235,613 -5% 392 $601 $32,351,107 62 14 (15) Justice League Warner Bros. $178,230 -28% 1,215 $147 $226,339,162 48 15 (-) The Disaster Artist A24 $175,593 -15% 507 $346 $18,552,297 34

Domestic is looking at sub-$650 million, maybe as low as $630 million. Based on the expected OS finish (> $700 million), TLJ should just barely pass DH2 ($1,341,511,219).

If TLJ wins the 3-day but loses the 4-day, does that break its number of consecutive weekends at #1?

I still remember a bunch of people calling Deadline idiots for that estimate

Coco lost too many theaters before the holidays compared to Moana unfortunately.

Those in the China forum think this can go as high as $150 million. Combined with $250+ million domestic, this might outgross Justice League worldwide.

Avatar 2 is probably the box office run I'm most looking forward to (be it amazing or disappointing). The power of Disney marketing and Cameron's name recognition is a very potent combination.

While being cute certainly helps, I don't think it's a necessity for success (speaking for animated films) in Japan. Though it will be interesting to see how Coco is marketed in Japan. It will need to attract more than just families if it wants to breakout.

As you mentioned, Coco has many elements that on paper should appeal to Japanese audiences. Its release date in Japan also means it will get a large bump from the post-Oscars buzz from winning Best Animated Feature (at minimum). Coco does face Boss Baby five days after its release. Though if it's like all the other past Dreamworks animated films, Boss Baby will probably fizzle out and not even make $10 million. That leaves Coco no competition until Conan a month later.

Courtesy of Corpse: Weekend Actuals (12/23-24)01 (01) ¥695,642,400 ($6.1 million), -39%, ¥3,203,047,400 ($28.3 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK2 02 (03) ¥245,666,900 ($2.2 million), -07%, ¥849,514,700 ($7.5 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK2 03 (04) ¥227,715,900 ($2.0 million), -11%, ¥1,330,606,900 ($11.8 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK3 04 (02) ¥226,738,400 ($2.0 million), -43%, ¥689,731,200 ($6.1 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK205 (---) ¥137,200,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥137,200,000 ($1.2 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) NEW 06 (05) ¥111,533,500 ($985,000), -39%, ¥810,735,600 ($7.2 million), Kamen Rider Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders (Toei) WK3 07 (06) ¥110,200,400 ($973,000), -21%, ¥937,294,200 ($8.3 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) WK308 (---) ¥44,978,000 ($397,000), 0, ¥44,978,000 ($397,000), Kung Fu Yoga (Kadokawa) NEW 09 (07) ¥43,377,600 ($383,000), -44%, ¥912,396,950 ($8.1 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) WK4 10 (08) ¥37,058,800 ($327,000), -30%, ¥341,884,380 ($3.0 million), Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 (Showgate) WK3 11 (09) ¥30,312,400 ($268,000), -37%, ¥633,211,700 ($5.6 million), Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei) WK4 12 (10) ¥23,030,200 ($203,000), -34%, ¥2,048,772,600 ($18.3 million), IT (Warner Bros.) WK8>Star Wars: The Last Jedi easily retained its position atop the box office; its second weekend of many to come. Episode VIII's 39% second weekend decline is an improvement over Episode VII's 42% decline, and trailed it by just 4%. However, its second weekend total is 17% behind Episode VII's due to the slightly earlier release date and not being able to capitalize on school break as early. Comparison:¥726 million ($6.0 million), -42%, ¥3.84 billion ($31.8 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens ¥696 million ($6.1 million), -39%, ¥3.20 billion ($28.3 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi I don't expect Episode VIII will be able to catch Episode VII, but the results so far suggest it's going to finish relatively close to it (probably within 10-15%) compared to most other markets, and is aiming for a ¥9.5 billion ($80-85 million) total with a good shot at reaching the ¥10 billion uber-milestone still. Only Episodes I and VII achieved uber-status in the market. >Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King falls pretty hard, unsurprisingly, in its second weekend, but once again its an improvement over its predecessor's second weekend hold (this year by 10%). The continued improvement in legs, however, aren't enough to offset the substantial decline each film is having on opening weekend. The fourth film in the franchise will be aiming for ¥2.5 billion ($22/23 million) or so. >The 8-Year Engagement enjoys an excellent second weekend, setting itself up for a very healthy run as New Year approaches. It's very likely to exceed ¥2 billion (~$20 million). >Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura experienced another very strong hold after a 13% second weekend drop, decling just 11% in its third weekend. Takashi Yamazaki's latest didn't have the most exciting debut three weeks ago, but it's going to have the longevity to certainly make up for that. It's aiming for a total of ¥3 billion ($25 million+). >Murder on the Orient Express held well in its third weekend of release, and is on track to exceed ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million), perhaps good enough for Japan to become its third strongest overseas market. >Kamen Rider Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders is falling hard each week as every film in the franchise does, but it is holding every so slightly better than most, and it'll soon become the first film in the long-running series to reach the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone in several years.

China has been more generous to foreign films in recent years. A handful of them have gotten extensions if demand is there. Off the top of my head, Zootopia, Fate of the Furious, Dangal, and Coco have gotten an additional month.

Interesting. Why such a huge bump for Ferdinand but not other family films?

After witnessing Wolf Warriors 2's $850 million performance in China, I strongly believe Avatar 2 will pass $1 billion in China. It's hard to imagine for people who don't follow the Chinese box office, but Avatar is on a whole other level from any other film franchise there in popularity. That would all but lock up $2 billion worldwide for Avatar 2.

I don't think IW is getting anywhere near $2 billion. I think $1.5-1.6 billion is a good range for it.

Summer 2015 was pretty insane too. Jurassic World Uni. $652,270,625 4,291 $208,806,270 4,274 6/12 11/19 Avengers: Age of Ultron BV $459,005,868 4,276 $191,271,109 4,276 5/1 10/8 Inside Out BV $356,461,711 4,158 $90,440,272 3,946 6/19 12/10 Minions Uni. $336,045,770 4,311 $115,718,405 4,301 7/10 12/17

With predictions of $150 million for Jumanji in China, I'm predicting TLJ will completely collapse there when Jumanji is released one week after. If TLJ actually earns just $20-30 million, it might also get outgrossed in China by Ferdinand and Wonder (which are both released 2 weeks after it).

I'm thinking China might have a 80% second weekend drop like South Korea. Jumanji will take a lot of screens.

Rth liked the post with $27 million.