KP1025

Infinity War biggest film of 2018? Or too early to say before Jurassic World 2 reaction?

I don't think Star Wars has anything to worry about in the short term, as its domestic and European dominance is enough to compensate for the lower interest in Asia (outside Japan, who have always supported the franchise) and Latin America. That TFA was able to make $1 billion OS excluding China's gross is just incredible, and it also managed to cross $2 billion WW without the kind of OS numbers that Titanic and Avatar had. I do think Wolf Warriors 2 (>$850 million in China) has shown that China's ceiling is very close to the domestic ceiling. Avatar 2 is looking more and more likely to reach $1 billion there given the status of the first film, which almost certainly locks $2 billion WW again.

I agree about Finding Dory OS number being very disappointing. I still remember the majority of people saying it was locked to beat Frozen for #1 animated film WW ($1.276 billion). $542 million OS is quite bad for such an anticipated film, the 3rd lowest OS gross for a >$1 billion dollar film after Dark Knight and Rogue One. Dropping almost 40% in Japan (local currency) was completely unexpected when most assumed it was a lock for $100 million there. I'm still unsure how Incredibles 2 will do OS, but it should come close to Finding Dory's domestic gross (probably in the $450 million range you mention). I do think Finding Dory would have made over $500 million if not for the incredible overperformance from Secret Life of Pets. Incredibles 2 doesn't look like it has any comparable competition in the animated/family film department for the whole summer.

Japan could be huge if WOM spreads (release isn't until March 16). Coco has many things going for it in Japan: -Animated musical -Strong family themes -Land of the Dead is colorful and whimsical. Its aesthetics should appeal to Japanese audiences who love to be immersed in a fantasy/fictional world Pixar has underperformed in Japan in recent years. Hopefully, Coco can reverse the trend.

Still not as bad as this.

It could also go the other way. The Fate of the Furious dropped by $3 million OS in the latest update.

Unlike Japan, China hates musicals.

It's theorized that Moana and Sing cannibalized each other somewhat in Japan since they were released only one week apart. There was significant overlap since both were animated musicals, and Illumination is seen as a worthy competitor to WDAS in Japan (Dreamworks, Blue Sky, and Sony animation are completely rejected in Japan currently). I think Moana would have reached closer to Zootopia in Japan if it had a free run. In addition to very strong competition from Sing, its theaters/screens were also slashed dramatically a month after opening for Beauty and the Beast (preventing the type of leggy run that Frozen, Big Hero 6, and Zootopia had). Japan does love animated musicals though, and I think the themes in Coco definitely resonate with audiences there. There's potential for a fantastic run there.

Jurassic World made almost $1.7 billion worldwide, with over $1 billion earned internationally. The sequel would have to be poorly received in all major markets to drop below $1 billion in my opinion. A similar overseas retention (and factoring in a comparable domestic drop) to F8 or Age of Ultron (both sequels to films that grossed over $1.5 billion) easily gets it over $1 billion.

Domestic: $225,764,765 18.3% + Foreign: $1,009,989,387 81.7% = Worldwide: $1,235,754,152

Power Rangers opened in Japan today but looks like another market where it will bomb. According to Corpse, it will easily fall below $1 million for its opening weekend and not even make Top 5 or 6.

Minions would be closer to 700M in today's ER. U.K. and Latin America suffered considerable drops in their currencies since 2015. But I still think over 600M OS is locked for DM3, probably closer to 650M depending on China.

Zootopia was holding so well late in its run. It probably could have added at least $10 million more if it didn't lose most of its theaters/screens to Alice 2 and then Finding Dory two weeks later. Also, Frozen's record 10th weekend is insane (it was even higher than its opening weekend). Even the other massive phenomenons like Spirited Away and Your Name couldn't come close. I would be surprised if Beauty and the Beast dropped less than 50% next weekend since it will also be losing the majority of its theaters/screens to Pirates 5 according to Corpse.

CORPSE Weekend Actuals (06/24-25)01 (01) ¥230,816,800 ($2.1 million), -12%, ¥1,433,412,100 ($12.8 million), Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.) WK3 02 (02) ¥207,013,700 ($1.8 million), -06%, ¥11,812,989,900 ($104.6 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK10 03 (03) ¥151,949,700 ($1.3 million), -22%, ¥1,487,620,900 ($13.2 million), Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho) WK3 04 (---) ¥105,781,500 ($945,000), 0, ¥105,781,500 ($945,000), Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films) NEW 05 (05) ¥96,260,700 ($859,000), -36%, ¥330,334,900 ($3.0 million), Innocent Curse (Shochiku) WK2 06 (04) ¥71,685,600 ($640,000), -56%, ¥312,616,860 ($2.8 million), The Irregular at Magic High School: Girl Who Summons Stars (Aniplex) WK2 07 (---) ¥56,599,100 ($506,000), 0, ¥56,599,100 ($506,000), Space Battleship Yamato 2202: Chapter of Departure (Shochiku Media Division) NEW 08 (06) ¥44,569,400 ($398,000), -48%, ¥222,237,500 ($1.9 million), King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (Warner Bros.) WK2 09 (---) ¥42,387,500 ($379,000), 0, ¥42,387,500 ($405,000), When Will You Return? (Showgate) NEW 10 (10) ¥35,533,000 ($317,000), -11%, ¥236,150,900 ($2.1 million), King of Prism: Pride the Hero (Avex Pictures) WK3>Confessions of a Murderer edged out another weekend victory, its third-consecutive week at #1, delivering yet another excellent hold selling a further 165,052 admissions. Its chances of exceeding ¥2 billion ($20 million) are becoming higher and higher, and it'll have to suffer some serious drops over the next couple weeks to miss the milestone. It's likely to out-gross Kong: Skull Island to become the highest-grossing film of 2017 for Warner Bros.. >Beauty and the Beast had to settle for another close second place finish, selling a further 144,239 admissions, but its tenth weekend is one of the 10 biggest of all-time. Also, Disney has major reason to celebrate, too, since the film out-grossed Alice in Wonderland over the weekend to become their highest-grossing live-action film in Japan and their most-attended live-action film by selling more admissions than Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. It's become a trend for Disney to cut into the legs of their major performers late in their runs when they have another major tentpole coming up (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales on Saturday), so I expect the same to happen this upcoming weekend, especially with the two records Beauty and the Beast just claimed. >Hacksaw Ridge came in a little lower than I was expecting but it stays above ¥100 million with actuals, so it's a win for the film and a bigger win for distributor Kino Films. Mel Gibson's latest sold 83,135 admissions over the weekend across 252 screens. Japan will become either its second or third biggest international market behind China (very impressive there), and maybe the UK. June is finally over, and the box office will enter the two biggest months of the year -- July and August -- this upcoming weekend, so expect some interesting figures at last in the coming weeks/months. Biggest Tenth Weekends/Ten Week Totals (2000-)01. ¥807.1 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million) - Frozen (2014) 02. ¥510.0 million ($4.6 million), -21%, ¥22.40 billion ($183.7 million) - Spirited Away (2001) 03. ¥381.5 million ($3.6 million), -20%, ¥17.19 billion ($167.1 million) - Your Name. (2016) 04. ¥359.4 million ($4.0 million), -11%, ¥12.60 billion ($141.5 million) - Avatar (2009) 05. ¥349.1 million ($2.7 million), +18%, ¥18.48 billion ($140.6 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001) 06. ¥310.5 million ($3.0 million), -10%, ¥16.42 billion ($160.1 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004) 07. ¥289.6 million ($2.7 million), -31%, ¥11.15 billion ($105.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003) 08. ¥225.2 million ($1.8 million), -41%, ¥15.86 billion ($137.6 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003) 09. ¥213.3 million ($1.8 million), -23%, ¥15.78 billion ($134.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) 10. ¥207.0 million ($1.8 million), -06%, ¥11.81 billion ($104.6 million)- Beauty and the Beast (2017) 11. ¥184.9 million ($1.9 million), -43%, ¥11.08 billion ($113.4 million) - The Wind Rises (2013) 12. ¥178.4 million ($1.6 million), -11%, ¥12.37 billion ($112.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) 13. ¥171.5 million ($1.7 million), -14%, ¥7.20 billion ($66.7 million) - Zootopia (2016) 14. ¥154.9 million ($1.5 million), -40%, ¥14.31 billion ($133.3 million) - Ponyo (2008)¥150 million+

Pirates 4 had a 7.36x multipier, so a $9-9.5 million opening weekend would be required if this has the same legs.

I wasn't sure about Mulan myself. It certainly could do it if it breaks out in China, but that's a big if at this point. I'm also not sure how well it will play elsewhere overseas considering Mulan isn't a universally beloved classic like Beauty and the Beast or even Jungle Book. I'm thinking $800-900 million right now.

Just Avengers: Infinity War and Jurassic World 2. If Han Solo moves to December, I'll include it too.

I'm not surprised. Buzz has been almost non-existent.

Good point. I wonder if the title of the movie mattered, or if superhero fatigue is setting in. It will be interesting to see if Infinity War increases or decreases in China from Age of Ultron.

Yes, perhaps it was unfair of me to expect Wonder Woman to perform as well as movies with multiple superheroes. I believe the ceiling is actually quite a bit higher in China for solo superhero movies as IM3 demonstrated (its $121 million in 2013 would be equivalent to over $200 million today).

Domestic and Latin America are performing fantastic for sure. I think Asia's numbers are okay but nothing impressive and way behind relative to Latin America and North America proportionally (based on market size). Numbers in China and South Korea are decent for a DC film but well under the potential for the superhero genre.

I'm thinking about the same as Lego Batman or maybe just under. The lack of iconic characters might hurt its appeal, although I could see this playing slightly better in Asia.

I'm going to say $1 billion OS, making it Universal's second consecutive $1 billion earner internationally. It will decrease in several markets because of the exchange rates, but I can see it doing $300+ million in China this time. First one had great WOM but legs were cut short by protection period. Almost beat AoU in China despite a ~40% lower opening. Major blockbusters get an extension from 1 month these days in China, so hopefully JW2 gets one this time.

I'm sure it will still do blockbuster numbers in Japan. It's still the most anticipated summer release according to this list. Eiga.com's Most "Liked" Upcoming Summer Releases (July & August):01 (01) 12,915 [+804] / 31st [+10] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (07/01/17)02 (02) 9,251 [+433] / UR - Spider-Man: Homecoming (08/11/17)03 (03) 7,689 [+489] / 69th [+25] - Gintama (07/14/17)04 (04) 6,083 [+383] / 66th [+13] - Wonder Woman (08/25/17)05 (05) 5,376 [+312] / 86th [+11] - Transformers: The Last Knight (08/04/17)06 (06) 5,325 [+549] / UR - Mary and the Witch's Flower (07/08/07)07 (07) 4,986 [+345] / 81st [+02] - I Want to Eat Your Pancreas (07/28/17)08 (09) 4,617 [+414] / 72nd [+28] - John Wick: Chapter 2 (07/07/17)09 (08) 4,429 [+256] / UR - Tokyo Ghoul (07/29/17)10 (11) 4,097 [+300] / UR - Fireworks, Should We See it from the Side or the Bottom? (08/18/17)11 (10) 4,064 [+206] / UR - JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: Diamond Is Unbreakable (08/04/17)12 (12) 3,684 [+257] / UR - Despicable Me 3 (07/21/17)13 (13) 3,121 [+213] / 90th [-28] - Shinobi's Country (07/01/17)14 (15) 3,060 [+446] / 40th [+20] - The Mummy (07/28/17)15 (14) 2,926 [+229] / UR - Power Rangers (07/15/17)16 (17) 2,614 [+382] / 49th [+51] - Life (07/08/17)17 (16) 2,592 [+238] / UR - Cars 3 (07/15/17)18 (18) 1,763 [+97] / UR - Sekigahara (08/26/17)19 (19) 1,625 [+135] / UR - Pokemon: I Choose You! (07/15/17)20 (20) 1,274 [+202] / UR - The Anthem of the Heart (07/22/17)UR = Unranked in the Top 100 Search List.

Pirates 4 only grossed that much in Japan because of an extremely favorable exchange rate. In today's exchange rate, its ¥8.87 billion would only convert to $79.4 million. Pirates 4 is actually well behind Pirates 3 (¥10.90 billion) and Pirates 2 (¥10.02 billion) in local currency. In admissions, Pirates 4 only had 5.46 million ticket sales in Japan compared to 8.4 million for Pirates 3 and 7.75 million for Pirates 2. It's also worth mentioning that the 3D share for tickets is far lower now in Japan compared to 2011, when it was one of the highest post Avatar craze. If Pirates 5 sells the same number of tickets as Pirates 4, it will still drop quite a bit in local currency.