Cooper Legion

Next couple sentences for context (emphasis mine):

That’s why it’s optimistic. It would need to lean on a breakout in OS markets that are more recovered than US. E.g. 300 China, 450 OS-C, 250 DOM could get it done, but is not very likely. This part is just pure nonsense. Corona will be over by Aug or so and not have another wave.

Not too late for Little Red Flower to have a crazy leggy breakout

Optimistic: BW Realistic : Eternals Pessimistic: Spider-man

Are you ready to get your $@%&ing mind blown? Those closures are... temporary

18.5 open, finish just a bit under Shazam’s OW

“The economic realities that you can’t just wish away” are that theatrical can support big budget movies and streaming can’t yet.

Looks like the PSm for Sat was not much better than Fri, maybe even lower. And Sun PS will be less than 8M. If it debuts to just 19 or so could miss 30 total.

Anyone suggesting that a sequel might do 100% of its first entry WW-C (that would probably be enough to miss 800) is trolling??? I would definitely take the over on 800 personally but the under is hardly out of the realm of the reasonable.

FK was able to increase in $ at least, but it was only 14%. I suspect that’s a bit less than HW performance in China grew from 2015 to 2018, but finding a clean source is proving annoying.

I’m getting strong vibes of J:TNL from almost exactly a year ago, which went on to do fine reception/business DOM and OS-C. I feel like (non-MCU) HW sequels have been really struggling here for quite a while now, even several years pre-covid. Can’t think of one off the top of my head where the first movie did some decent business (say top 50 yearly in China) and the sequel had a higher share of HW gross for its year than the first movie did. Could just be subconsciously cherry-picking though.

I’m out of emotes, but consider this a Leo. And to be clear I’m not saying it would be impossible in normal times. Counterfactuals are intrinsically pretty tough, and if I think it would have a ~900M movie or something — well, 1B is not that big a % away. It just looks like it would have needed a lot of things to go right WW-C.

But CM didn’t hit 1.1B because of female empowerment, it hit 1.1B because of 30 seconds at the end of a 2B grosser.

None. When I mentioned markets operating normally I just meant China, Taiwan, and Japan (there may be another couple small Asian ones I’m not aware of). It is indeed a pretty small and geographically biased set, so I don’t want to draw any super strong conclusions from it — but certainly, in the world where it was doing better than WW1 in those markets the argument that it would have made 1B in normal conditions would be much more natural. I agree that even in those it’s being hurt by lack of normal promotion activities. But even if you give it like 80 in China and 430 DOM, you end up needing more than a 50% boost OS-C to hit 1B. That is very rare for sequels. All I’m saying is that 1B is a big lift for a sequel to an 820M grosser without the help of a big China *increase,* which probably wasn’t in the cards even in non-covid timelines.

350 DOM+50 C + 500 OS-C or something would have been a great performance for a sequel to an 820M grosser. I don’t understand why people feel so compelled to argue that it would have gotten 1B when very little points in that direction.

It means that in 2020 it is still very hard to hit 1B without a strong China contribution, and nothing about the first one’s performance (or this one’s so far in markets that are operating normally) provides good reason to believe it would have gotten there.

WW1 OS-C 320M Joker OS-C 740M

Has this ever been in doubt? It sounds like we’re pretty much on the same page though.

Sure, that’s the why, but theaters (and those who want them to survive) should just be grateful for the what. It’s vastly better than deciding to abandon pure theatrical releases despite the profit incentives 🤣

Tenet and WW84 are hardly some huge help to theaters. Theaters can’t do good business in 2020 because of the pandemic, and that will remain the same no matter who was releasing how many of which movies. So, I think all the studio experimentation while theaters are so diminished is basically fine. Hamilton, Mulan, Soul, WW84’s HBOMax release, Universal’s 17 day PVOD, Bill and Ted 3 going 0-day PVOD, whatever. Try it all to squeak out a little bit of money and data while you need to. What really matters is 2021, when theaters will actually need big attractive content to restart the industry as the pandemic recedes and recovery begins. So far Disney has lined up a strong buffet of blockbusters for purely theatrical release, and WB — even if they get stopped in the end — tried to send every single fucking one of their movies to 0-day SVOD. Including the November and December releases. In a desperate play for streaming subscribers. It just can’t be compared, this was a kick on the teeth to theaters which are being thrown a life raft by Disney.

China reception looks more bad than mixed tbh, but it’s not very indicative of the rest of the world’s tastes. See, for example, Shazam and Jumanji:TNL.

If it releases in China there’s a very good chance, if it doesn’t there’s a very small chance.

Absolute low transforms into baseline expectation now. If it was like 8.9 but didn’t do much because of lack of marketing and piracy in a week that would be a lot better for WW3’s prospects here. As is, WW3 will probably still need to work for the Billie mark since it might not match the first in China. Or maybe it comes out in 2024, gets 9.3, and makes like $300 here — don’t want to get too far ahead of myself for such a far future event.

Feeling better about my club than ever.

The WW84 conversation should move over to here now, presales portion of the run is over. Rescue has a 9.2 on Maoyan right now, but not sure if that’s real or faked.