Cooper Legion

Uhhhh... I hope this is not serious. Yes. Yes we can.

Don’t want to be too confident about holiday before it happens, but Corpse seemed to think that the first week of 2021 would have an even bigger increase than the previous week and 2nd week of 2021 roughly match last week of 2020.

A very funny thing would be if it becomes the #1 movie of 2020 in 2035 or something with a long delayed China release.

More like 365 in Japan I would say.

Yea, very in play. However, if it never gets China release, would need some positive surprise — either a WW-J market that explodes or extremely good ~12th-25th weeks in Japan.

I think leaks are exacerbating things in this particular case (certainly they contribute to my personal skepticism) but 4 isn’t really that long of a streak. It’s enough to avoid an assumption of being bad, but not quite enough to generate a strong assumption of being not bad. Also, to be clear, I dunno if (many) people are really worried that it will be straight up an actually bad movie. More that it might land in the “disappointing follow-up, passable enough” range.

Once they get a long enough streak without the answer being “it was bad” I think we’ll be able to avoid the “is it bad?” routine. I dunno exactly what will be “long enough,” but if WW84+Suicide Squad+Batman are all certified fresh that might do it.

These definitely seem good, but initial social media reactions are good so reliably that it’s hard to draw too much in the way of conclusions. We should get reviews soonish.

Still might get more from China than DOM imo 👀

Oof. Cancellation worthy.

Hate to say it, but 5 billies may not be in the cards anymore.

Yeah, this would be the main concern. But Disney’s actions so far with the theatrical streaming balance have been a lot more measured than AT&T, who seem to be desperate for subs after the launch was underwhelming.

Feige isn’t going to follow WB like a lemming, this is as unlikely to go D+ as it was yesterday. The only option I might entertain is some kind of mixed theatrical+premiere access model.

That’s a great hold. About to be top non-HW in the market when it passes the top local film this weekend. I think top 10 can happen.

Well well well, that’s neat.

Same as USA

Hope you’re right for theater’s sake

I really dunno about Uncharted or Tomorrow War, I just didn’t want to go “eh, about 50” for everything midrange 😆 I have some Independence Day: Resurgence vibes from both of the 20+ year sequels (though not ditching the main actor certainly helps).

Minions 180, Shang Chi 260 is what I think I said before for those, my opinion hasn’t changed on them so far. Top Gun 50M, way overhyped. Forever Purge also 50 I guess, but I don’t know this franchise history off the top of my head and I didn’t bother looking it up. Barb 25, Space Jam 50, Uncharted 80 Dunno what Old is, Tomorrow War 70, Cruise 180

With a strong hold like this, Eternals should be able to top IM3/CA3/WW1.

Any sense of whether it’s close enough for a minorly modified cut to gain approval, or will be completely shut out of a release?

OTOH, original projects that have been confirmed for phase 4/phase 5 (excluding sequels because they reflect lead character choices from an earlier era): Female led — Black Widow (Natasha doesn’t really count for the same reason sequels don’t, but I expect Yelena will headline Black Widow 2 making it the start of a new female led subfranchise) Ms Marvel She-Hulk Split/Balanced/Ensemble — Eternals Wandavision (sequel-ish) Hawkeye (sequel-ish, assuming Kate Bishop co-lead) Male led — F&WS (sequel-ish) Loki (sequel-ish, also could be split/balanced/ensemble if it turns out that Female Loki is a co-lead) Shang-Chi Moon Knight It’s undeniable that they were late to the gender-equality-of-lead-characters game, but I don’t see much evidence that it continues to be something they avoid in the 2020s

Haha, same. It’s not a lock of course, vaccines could have unexpected delays or issues, or people could be slower to recover normal activities I was suggesting above. Also possible that theaters can’t find any financing to get them through the dark next few months, and the turnaround time on new ownership being operational is slower than I think it would be. However, I think international markets offer some real data in the direction of box office optimism once a country feels like it’s safe again. It’s kind of funny actually — in Feb/early March I was part of the doom squad about how covid was gonna come wreck the whole world and completely destroy box office for the year. In June I was part of the doom squad about prospects for summer box office, and in Sep I was part of the doom squad about prospects for the holiday period. All of which turned out pretty much bang on. But for the prospects of May-Dec 21 movies, seems like things have reversed and I’m on the optimistic side for once. Maybe the trend that will hold up is “WandaLegion’s guess about the course of covid and effect on BO.” Maybe the trend that will hold up in the end is “gloom always wins.” So far there’s no data to distinguish the two, but fingers crossed 😆

Yes way. We won’t have 100% vaccination of course, but partial vaccination plus (unfortunately) high levels of natural immunity from the brutal winter wave should get R well below 1 by then almost everywhere. I think this movie will be the first big beneficiary of people wanting to “go back to normal” and it being socially/medically acceptable.

Still think this can open over 100M on May 7 👀