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Cooper Legion

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Everything posted by Cooper Legion

  1. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, it’s very understandable. When I’m making serious predictions rather than joking about huge numbers I also encounter a lot of hesitation. Part of that also is that predicting a 160 and getting 140 feels kind of bad, but predicting a 160 and getting 200 feels GREAT. Still, leaving arithemetical details aside for a bit, this: says a lot.
  2. Cooper Legion
    I can appreciate a desire for caution, and ultimately no past movie can provide a perfect proportional prediction for CM. Even when we have Thursday presale numbers, there will still be a huge range of possible openings based on more fundamental uncertainties. But I’m starting to get a vibe of people seeking out reasons not to believe the numbers because the numbers seem unbelievable, and I think that often detracts from accuracy more than adds.
  3. Cooper Legion
    WW has a 9.4 Thursday:OW multi, BatB 10.7
  4. Cooper Legion
    HIGHER, FURTHER, FASTER, BABY!
  5. Cooper Legion
    When the reviews haven’t dropped yet but the lowest comp is still 160 😎
  6. Cooper Legion
    Appreciate the time. I’m just trying to get a quick and dirty hourly record, so I’ll probably jot down hours from the 24 tracker+final num as provided by you. Edit: If this works how I think it might work you’re about to post a number that makes everyone flip out. Edit 2: Hmm, not quite. Well, this should let me make a pretty educated guess tomorrow.
  7. Cooper Legion
    Ahh, I’ve been looking just at the past 24 hour tracker, but you’re using this one: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt which groups things hourly, is that right? I think that does get you more precise counts, but they’re desynced by about an hour. Well, I’ll look at how the next tick of the 24hr tracker compares with your final tally, maybe figure out the answer to my own questio from above.
  8. Cooper Legion
    Ah, interesting. I was thinking it was weird given that it’s only 11:30 Eastern time. So the next update will say Right? Will that be the final for the day, or include an hour of estimates for tomorrow as well. If the latter, where do you go to find the full day final.
  9. Cooper Legion
    Ended at 32.9k, strong last hour. Edit: Not quite final, see @CoolEric258‘s posts below for more.
  10. Cooper Legion
    Just mapping Monday Fandango sales straight to Thursday numbers it would be proportional to about 22M. But naturally red carpet timing is different, reviews will be different, one year’s worth of increased general prebuying habits, very different lengths of presale period, etc. I am personally starting to lean more toward like 20-23 than 18-22, but the best way to improve prediction quality is just let more time pass.
  11. Cooper Legion
    Sunday after midnight sales (adds to Mon total) were a tad stronger than Mon after midnight (adds to Tues total) which skews things slightly. I’ve got: yesterday 7-10 +27 10-11 +44 Today 7-10 +44 10-11 +62 I think gains will pace around +40-50% from yesterday, leading to about +9/10 midnight. Looking for benchmarks of about 14:00 24.2, 17:30 26.3, 30.2 midnight. 14:00 update: Maoyan has been a little jerkier than usual today, at least for me. But we’re pretty much right on track with my benchmark above, so no change to estimate.
  12. Cooper Legion
    Yeah, I would be pretty happy with 8.9. The context was explaining just how unlikely what they were asking about was.
  13. Cooper Legion
    Mon 3/4 19:00 20.8k 20:00 22.4k 21:00 24.2k 22:00 27.4k (as expected ~ double) 23:00 30.2k 00:00 32.9k Final: 33.9k exactly double at same point. Will be editing this post for next 3 hours, but roughly expect the day to end at some 32k+, about 90% BP.
  14. Cooper Legion
    All from the akvalley fandango 24 hour tracker: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt I recovered the hourly data for last night from a couple pages ago: Sun 3/3 21:00 12.1k 22:00 13.8k 23:00 15.5k 00:00 15.7k and I plan to keep hourly logs for my waking hours from now to 6M Pacific Thursday.
  15. Cooper Legion
    So Marvel will catch up around 2030
  16. Cooper Legion
    Is Doraemon 1/year? Going since 1980? Or average more like twice a year?
  17. Cooper Legion
    19:00 20.8k 20:00 22.4k (+1.6) If flat next hour goes to 24k 21:00. Yesterday 12.1k at 21:00, looks to be doubling.
  18. Cooper Legion
    I remember realizing that DOM money was affected by exchange rates a couple months ago. It was pretty wild.
  19. Cooper Legion
    I assume Charlie is still asleep, so I’ll step in with how I bet he’d respond. #3 in a single country (counting US and Canada separate) after TFA and WW2, beats Avatar and BP with Canada taken out. #5 in a single box office territory (US and Canada combined into “domestic”).
  20. Cooper Legion
    If China explodes with a shocking 9.6 Maoyan and like a 130M OW, while it get a shock 55% RT US, last week US presales crater, and/or it turns out to be unprecedentedly frontloaded for an MCU Solo then this is theoretically possible. I’d pit it at well under 1%. I agree with Feasby that US OW over China total is more plausible, though I think I’d put that at <3%.
  21. Cooper Legion
    What are local expectations for CM? I’m thinking 35-50.
  22. Cooper Legion
    That beats Rampage, welcome to the top 20.
  23. Cooper Legion
    Ah, it’s about the post from @Muzdt just above — Hong Kong presales, I believe. They changed the formatting so it’s a lot easier to read, and Captain Marvel is up to 26k in their latest daily update, which is 3/4 of IW at the same point. That percentage has been slowly increasing in their data over the past days.
  24. Cooper Legion
    Hmm, so 1.865x that period was added. Better than I expected honestly, I suppose that’s what I’ll update to for Tuesday.
  25. Cooper Legion
    Much improved formatting % of IW ticks up to 75
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