Justin4125

Yea, strange decision on no music. Also, Mulan is one of the less appreciated Disney Renaissance flicks in China (if the Douban score is any indication). People have too often made the mistake in thinking that Chinese actors/storylines make a film a surefire hit in China (same with Japan), so I think we can't for sure say for sure that it has any more break out potential than any other live action adaptation in Asia. Lets not forget, its still a Western film and thats primarily how it will be perceived in those markets (again, if history is any indication). I do think Mulan has a lot of potential I am not docking the film, but I think there is reason to temper our expectations about the kind of business it will do in Asia

Yes, and that hype for Pikachu went far beyond these forums, with many publications citing it as a potential billion dollar grosser. Meanwhile the narrative surrounding Toy Story 4 has completely 180'ed since reviews came out. While it obviously always had potential, its hard to say how much hype there was given peoples feelings about the first 3. In any case, Pika led TS4 across all social platforms On a side note, Illumination is showing potentially the opposite of the Pixar effect. Many Illumination films outgrossed even Pixar's crown jewels (Minions about TS3, SLOP over Inside Out) but now we're seeing potential chinks in Illumination's armor. Quality, while it doesnt always pay off immediately at the BO, pays off LT, and that LT focus has always defined Pixar For those under-predicting Tenet, think again. This is Nolan we're talking about, and his profile has only risen further after Dunkirk. He hasnt given us any reason to question both his ability to make great films or for those films to make a lot of money, regardless of the genre. I agree that Tenet will likely have broader appeal than Dunkirk (maybe not Interstellar though given the star power/popularity of the space concept (within a few years we saw Interstellar, Gravity and The Martian do great business), but I still feel Nolan himself has become an even greater draw at the domestic box office in the interim and that at least 200M dom is a pretty good bet given the reasonable assumption that the film will be great

I mean, no its absolutely not. Does Chase Manhattan Bank do something creative that people enjoy? I guess you can argue there is some creativity in structured products and other financial derivative instruments (barrier options are really a brilliant way to trick people who want some alternative investments in their portfolio out of their pensions), but as far as I know, they are not creating films or telling interesting stories that are touching lives in one way or another. I very idealistically still believe in the power of a great story and relatable characters, and Disney the corporation thankfully does not pollute each and every one of the directors, actors, storytellers and artists who at one time or another have worked under its roof. Who are you to belittle some content that someone else enjoys? This whole corporate shaming bullshit needs to stop, you're on a box office theory for heaven's sake, whatever film you are rooting for was financed by someone and by extension falls under the same damn capitalist incentive structure one way or another. This forum has become overrun by people feeling the need to label others as studio stans or in some other way use this logically flimsy justification to demean/insult and make hypocritical distinctions between the films they enjoy and those enjoyed by others. I say again, this is not a forum of people tracking limited releases and championing PTA, this is a box office forum and judging by your very high number of posts, I would say that you too fall prey to enjoying a solid box office run. I'm sorry to say that your favorite films and/or studios are no less bound by financial motivations than any other, so get off your damn high horse. In any case, studios under the corporation that is Disney hire great people who tell great stories, many of which inspire love and adoration. Some of us process that admiration in different ways. Some of us become interested in box office results, seeking some form of validation in seeing the stories and storytellers that we connect to succeed. It is, very decisively, not the same thing as rooting for JP Morgan.

On top of which they have kept the P&A at a bare minimum. They likely won't lose much if anything on it. Speaking of P&A, Universal is dolling out cash for SLOP2 TV ads at a level I've never seen before (topped the charts 4 weeks in a row current cum spend domestically over $44M). Must be getting antsy with Toy Story 4 around the corner

WW being the first female seen on screen on this scale was a benefit to the film, like BP. I think both WW and BP will have difficulty reaching the same level of success domestically, both were buoyed by fantastic reviews and a first-of-its-kind cultural event status EDIT: Female superhero. I guess the core of my concern with WW84 domestically is whether the film can deliver. I think in terms of statistics, like valuing a company and taking into account the probability of default. If we assume WW84's probability of default is 0 (great reviews and audience reception), then I think its almost undeniable that the film will match or exceed the original, great after-markets indicate that the film's audience has only grown post-theatrical Also, while its impossible to disentangle any MCU film from the brand and the franchise's biggest films (cross-pollination has been a big part of the MCU's success story), I agree with most posters here that CM's success can't just be attributed to AEG. Sure, for us CBM movie fans her potential role in Endgame might have been a very important hook, but if IW couldnt boost AM&W much (despite those commericals) then AEG can't make CM a must-see with GA to the point of it becoming a 1bn hit. Furthermore, the film itself had almost no connection to AEG, and this was circulated as soon as it first screened. It also scored well with audiences and had good legs even without the late release EG boost I would think that Brie Larson discussing AEG during press tours (even I didnt realize this, but it makes sense as I am sure most reporters asked about it) is almost irrelevant as far as GA are concerned

That would be exchange rates, nothing more nothing less EDIT: I know this fact upsets some people, so to be fair to those who revere Avatar's place on the WW chart (or are otherwise offended by the MCU's success) I will concede that exchange rates wouldn't much matter if Avatar was released in today's China

Wasnt Tencent involved in KSI? Tencent really seems to be box office gold But about GvK. If both KoTM and KSI can do so well with ultimately pretty average WOM, the franchise's break-out potential for something 200M+ is undeniably there. I mean KoTM "disappointed" with ~140M! I am really excited to see what a big crossover event film can do, especially if its well-marketed, has solid WOM, and potentially the support of Tencent again, although about that last point I have a feeling Legendary East doesnt want to share anymore than they already have to....

I mean technically Aladdin went from 78M to 54M (13.6M from new territories including Japan), but I understand your point. But no one here was ever comparing KoTM to Aladdin. They are categorically two different kind of films, with KoTM skewing away from families and more fan driven, making it naturally more frontloaded (though of course in this case its a bit excessively frontloaded). KoTM also made a bigger percentage of its revenue in fast-burn markets like China and regions in SE asia, so again, comparing 2nd weekend drops between Aladdin and KoTM is mostly apples to oranges Also, about KoTM dropping faster than G14, G14's second weekend was a holiday. no doubt it would have fallen harder otherwise. So I would say KoTM may hold a bit better from here than G14 did (G14 dropped 66.8% 2nd weekend and 61.2% third weekend). Still, I dont think it has much more than 25M in the tank domestically. Internatioanlly, this 2nd weekend drop wasnt that bad, on par with most day-to-date release superhero flicks like Shazam, CM and AEG (or FotF) which are much better comparisons given the naturally frontloaded nature of these films). Still, even if Godzilla drops hard from here on out, it should be able to reach 375M worldwide (thats a miserable 1.6x from its second weekend dom and an equally miserable 1.2x of its intl second weekend). With just a very slight overperformance from my perhaps overly conservative estimates, that means 400M is still very much in play, a number that really will go a long way towards saving face. This is not a bomb, its just a bit of a disappointment. For those who watched the deadline interview, they might push GvK back a bit. The tone of Emmerich's voice, however, was far from that of someone who has given up hope in the Monsterverse. As I said before, that this film can "disappoint" with close to 400M worldwide shows there is still a lot of potential in the franchise. Besides, between 1) a shitty release date (competition) 2) shitty ER 3) many people turned off from the previous film and 4) critic reviews, KoTM had the cards stacked against it. I have faith in GvK, and as long as that one merely performs well (~575M - 600M WW) you can count on these films continuing

Couldn't agree more. I also disagree with the way many of you are formulating your arguments. First of all, I do not think violence, swearing or various thematics (or a certain MPAA rating) are required to tell a good story. If you watch films to feel grown-up, more power to you, but I personally do not look for such validation from my entertainment. If their films simply do not appeal to you, that's fine, but you are no less a literate adult for enjoying a Pixar film than you are one for appreciating the wit in a Charlie Kaufman film. In any case, why bemoan Disney's lack of "adult-targeted" films at all? What's wrong with a studio focusing on what it does best? They make plenty of great films through their various studio subsidiaries. If you're looking for something edgier, you have plenty of other studios making such films, although I suspect part of Disney's acquisition of Fox was to diversify their films once again (don't forget Disney released plenty of R-rated flicks for years through the likes of Touchstone and Miramax). While frankly I feel its silly to rail against Disney for a lack of "adult-only" entertainment, I am, however, much more sympatheic to those upset about the chokehold that four-quadrant films have on the box office. It seems in today's multiplexes, its very difficult for a film targeting a single demographic to thrive alongside films with broader appeal.

This. And also, I think its pretty clear the commerical value of Godzilla vs Kong is worth a theatrical release. Even though KoTM disappointed, itll still be around 375M to 400M worldwide. Its budget is the only thing that made it a disappointment, but you have to keep perspective. That amount of money is clearly not what you want from one of your prime tentpoles, but still more than enough to justify a theatrical release (and certainly way too much to surrender it to streaming)! GvK clearly has more GA appeal (Kong himself is arguably more popular among GA), so lets see what happens. Also, as many have mentioned, the success of previous monster movies clearly shows audiences obsessions with kaiju hasnt dwindled, if anything theres been a mini resurgence in recent years. If anything, I think KoTM's disappointing results can be explained with three maybe four factors 1) lack of a marquee star (like Dwayne Johnson or the whole cast of KSI) 2) highly competitive release date 3) poor reviews scaring off GA 4) lack of GA appeal in Godzilla (the 14 and 98 films had the advantage of being seen as the "first" Godzilla movies ('98 being at the height of Roland Emmerich film popularity and '14 being the over hyped, big budget, modern treatment of the character). By comparison KoTM may have come across as inessential or redundant to most GA unfamiliar with the additional kaiju stars In any case, the franchise clearly has promise, no denying that

Completely agree. I think a big difference though is that SLOP2 is a key release for its studio while it feels like Disney/Fox are treating DP a bit like a sunk cost. We see this in the recent TV ad spending numbers. These dont give us a complete picture on P&A spend, but i still I think its important look into the studio's overall marketing push. Universal is dishing out a Minion's sized TV spend for SLOP2, the most Ive seen all year, and 60% more than Disney/Fox are spending on DP. Fair enough they are still spending more on DP than they did on AEG, but AEG was an outlier due to the huge promo campaign and already sky high awareness https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/the-secret-life-of-pets-2-again-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1203226953/ EDIT: Come to think of it, I think target demographics might have something to do with SLOP2's high TV spend, so it might not be such a good measure of the studio's overall marketing push Hit the nail on the head. Studios are massive corporations burdened by bureaucracy and very slow to change. At this point so many films have proven the box office potential of non traditional, low competition release dates, yet studios still cannibilize each other rather than spread out their event films to less traditional release dates

I mean you cant really compare the legs of a December release to that of an April release. The Xmas/New Year holiday bump is just as big in Germany as it is in the States On top of that TLJ's box office dropped from the previous film (TFA), so it didnt tap into its full potential audience. AEG was the complete opposite. Its gross is the highest in the franchise and it opened almost twice as high as IW did (which was the highest grossing MCU title in Germany before Endgame) and will have grossed close to 50% more than IW when all is said and done. The MCU doesnt have the same GA appeal as SW does in Germany, Endgame literally ran out of audience. I've been saying this from the beginning when the film first opened. Some people expected similar legs in Europe to Infinity War, but the question was, where the hell is this additional audience coming from? After 22 films, the MCU has a clearly defined audience. On top of that, AEG played mainly to its core fanbase and was the least accessible to GA. The fact that this film made almost 50% more than IW, already a huge film compared to previous MCU titles, is just insane. AEG pushed the boundary of the MCU's box office potential and literally hit its limit

Its holding really well, I think that will continue regardless of screen loss. However, you cant isolate the effect of screen loss by looking at past weekends because you dont know how well it would have done on those weekends without such screen loss. Perhaps it would have only dropped 30% last weekend had not lost so many screens, so the fact that the drops were the same between the two weekends is inconclusive. Our best bet, I think, is to look at IW's performance. They had overlapped for a time before AEG encountered considerably more screen competition. I do suspect somewhat of a causal relationship, in which case I think we can expect good holds from here on, if only slightly worse on weekends when it faces multiple rival studio releases

Yea DP isnt really a loss for Disney. As TalismanRing mentioned, its chip change in the context of the acquisition, less than a rounding error, and they likely already discounted the loss EDIT: That said you could argue that thanks to Comcast, Disney overpaid for Fox. Only time will tell and thats a different conversation entirely, but that would be way, way more than anything they could lose on a single film

Will tickets sold from DP's $4 dollar ticket promo (the one for TMobile users) show up on Pulse? Im surprised by the scope of that promo, seems like that might actually make a difference attendance-wise

Inter-generational nostalgia is one hell of a pull. Interesting to watch early interviews with Lasseter and Jobs about the first Toy Story, they were talking about making a movie with an eye towards the next 50 or a 100 years. Not to focus on the immediate box office run, but to make movies that parents grow up with and then share with their children. The business plan worked

Deleted original post, redundant I apologize

Even though DP is getting poor reviews, itll still provide demo competition this weekend and cause AEG to shed more screens tonight. Would love to see a great hold but I think there are just too many wide releases EDIT: But yea it is a great hold

The difference between DP and AEG goes beyond taste..... That said I did enjoy DP far more than I thought I would, but that was at least in part due to my low expectations. The only thing that angers me is that they had some great opportunities with DOFP and Logan to end the franchise on a very high note, I really dont want this film to close the franchise I digress. DP is an ok film, but not very crowdpleasing, Obviously it will disappoint financially (we all knew it would) but I hope it isnt an outright bomb. In general, reception seems to be better in Europe than in the US, hopefully thats true in LatAm as well. Is DP's 80M first day an indication of an OK start in China? How about KoTM? Is it doing better than expected?

I also agree with this. Industry trackers never saw the film above 400m dom given its release date, and there were always concerns about OS performance. After TLJ struggled to significantly out-perform Rogue One and incurred the wrath of many fans (though, fair enough, internet trolls exaggerated the perception of GA's reception of the film), many readjusted expecations, especially since Solo also had many many production problems (complete change of director, heavy reshoots, reschedulings, etc). The behind the scenes drama, coupled with TLJ's signficant drop from TFA, led many to question the viability of Solo. 800M was not the low-end of estimates. Also, SW, while one of the most bankable franchises in history (second maybe only to the MCU) was not proven as a multi-picture a year franchise with spin-off type films like the MCU. Couple that with its release date (following IW and Deadpool 2) led many industry commentators to expect a drop. Yes, it still underperformed, but more conservative estimates were at 600m, and I cant find anyone in May prior to its release expecting anything like 1bn

This is correct. I didnt read a single industry tracker predicting anything XMA level. Between rescheduling, unplanned reshoots, Disney-Fox transition, audience fatigue, no one was expecting much from this film. Tracking was what, 113m domestic total? And that was a conditional expecation based on an assumption regarding the film's quality (as BOP mentioned), so once the reviews came in, you can't really call such conditional predictions wrong per se. This film was one of the most agreed upon financial disappointments in the making. One of the last films marketed by Fox's old team, they didnt even push that hard (TV ad spending is about 60% of SLOP2) Unless lorddemaxus is referring to some people on this forum or on reddit? In which case, take your pick of more recent films that grossly underperformed pre-release expectations, 2019 seems to be a banner year

Looks like itll end around 4M USD for the day. Im not an expert, but I went through a bunch of comps. In terms of percentage Tues-Wed drop for a film's first week in release its not terrible (though in terms of absolute levels its still pretty low). It hasnt totally flamed out so the deciding factor will be how well it can hold against the competition this weekend EDIT: Did not see Sunny Max's post, I apologize for the redundant content

Interested what Slop2 pulls, I think it can still be a respectable weekend between the holdovers and two new releases, regardless where DP falls. If DP does tumble hard, my only hope is that it benefits KoTM (and also JW3 and Endgame), but part of me is holding out hope that DP can save face. At least the reviews seem not quite as harsh internationally

We went from a weak beginning of the year at the BO to event movies every week (and of course the nuclear bomb that was AEG). I think we are seeing some household movie budgets get stretched. This is particularly the case given the relative decline in moviegoing in general. Eventizing movies has been an attempt to offset this, and with so many would-be event films being released in a short span, I think we are definitely seeing some exhaustion at the multiplexes (I also think attention spans are getting shorter, we're increasingly latching on to the next flavor of the week. Movie legs have been getting shorter for a while now, a slew of eventized films just execerbates this). Lastly theres screen loss. Even counter-programming titles go for wide releases nowadays taking away screens from holdovers

Double posted my mistake