Justin4125

Cinemascore is compiled from scientifically polled audiences (using top level sampling and surveying techniques). Its pretty damn representative of the enjoyment OW audiences got from a film. Thats all that it is though, so just use it with a grain of salt as you would anything else (good in conjunction with RT critic scores to get a measure of WOM, since RT critics will see the movie regardless of whether they are fans of the genre/movie in question, unlike OW audiences)

I hate to even say this because I firmly believe if circumstances had been just a little different AEG would have the WW crown by now, But Im telling you even the most leggy CBM film would suffer a big OS drop this weekend. By Sunday itll have another ~10m dom and ~8m intl (closer to 2.715bn) Look at all the previous May releases. Even I3 (which arguably had the most dom competition of MCU movies in May) didnt face as many big releases internationally (and due to staggered release schedules, most big movies (even in the summer) only had one or two biggies in their first 6 weeks). Almost every time I take a stance like this on a film its BO does better than expected, I hope that happens here

I find this hard to believe. Competition has a much larger impact on OS since they dont have same agreements about alloting screens. I find it hard to imagine AEG can hold up, especially due to the rise of day-to-date releases. Its faced two day-to-dates already (Aladdin and Pikachu), and KoTM will be hard to weather. Regardless how KoTM performs, it still means AEG loses most of its screens (esp premiums) Look at Thor Ragnorak's OS drop when Justice League came out (when its weekly OS-C numbers were similar to AEG's at that point in its release). Very hard to hold up internationally with such fierce competition, though I would be very happy if it somehow managed it (think about, UK and SK are already suffering big drops given ridiculous competition)

Look at the kind of competition those other films (IW included) had in their 5th weekends, nothing compared to what AEG faces. Plus, from a screens/theater perspective, one 100m release would have been better than 3 wide releases opening from 20m-60m. Too many big films and AEG is the oldest among them, its losing more screens than Pikachu despite still making more money Between the massive screencount drop and the many big wide releases playing in theaters, AEG will have a tough time (this obviously applies to the other films as well, between competition and ER deterioration, many of these films cant catch a break this year) Its looking like this weekend will mark a 100% increase in box office compared to same weekend last year. If only AEG only faced Adrift from last year, then 9-10m would be in the cards

Its been a fine year, sure they had Lego 2, but the rest has been ok, just not breakout Keep in mind in 2015 San Andreas was their biggest movie and in 2017 they had four costly flops I think the studio has made very solid recent changes, 2018 was a great year and this year, again although no movie has fully broken out, their films have at least been solid and I expect KoTM will be a solid double for the studio ala Shazam and DP

He's being pretty reasonable, let's wait for the full picture. In any case, his comment did not warrant your sharp response, take a breath

I loved the first one as did many of my friends. Plus, I feel that if that one had been a monster mash it would have made this movie less special! Lets see about the BO, people liked KSI, but I find it really hard to believe that G2014 was bad enough to turn people off from Godzilla in general

Yea, hard to recover from losing Avatar from the docket, they rely so heavily on their tentpoles and release so few films that their consistent reign over the past few years had to end eventually (though for Disney that means one year as merely a top 3 studio before likely taking back the #1 spot)

I mean shitty ER globally certainly doesnt help, but I honestly wouldnt worry too much about that. It may bring down OS grosses 5-10% compared to what it would have earned last year (a bit more compared to 2014 obviously) but WB will take that into account when assessing the franchise financially, and it certainly wont cause the film to bomb Its hard for me to understand why we're freaking out with only sparse OD data. ODs themselves can be very misleading. Lets see what happens with the weekend, but nothing I have seen so far has shaken my confidence that it will beat Aladdin's 3-day opening WW. To the next person who prematurely labels the film as a bomb before we have the full picture, I will think negative thoughts while focusing on your username and avatar, you've been warned

I honestly cant believe it, lets wait to see how the weekend shakes out. Its getting great WOM over here in parts of Europe. RT doesnt matter much here, and the narrative about the film is much more positive. I dont remember a time audiences in France/Switzerland enjoyed a monster movie so much (almost AEG level ratings on my local theater website (small sample, but its always been indicative of WOM in Switz) and faring much better with audiences on Allocine than G2014 or KSI). I guess Europe isnt the force that it used to be BO-wise, but Im feeling good about its longer term prospects if WOM keeps up

This whole narrative is driving me nuts. Critics in general did not complain about "too much human drama too little Godzilla" in 2014. That was mainly audiences, most top critics appreciated Gareth's slowburn approach. Having now seen the movie, many of the complaints are valid. Story and character are weak (its not a function of screen time of humans v kaiju, its about what they do with the time alloted). But as you mentioned, most GA are not seeing a movie called Godzilla King of the Monsters to see 12 Years a Slave, the human drama, while weak, is thankfully not a major draw in the first place

Haha no one on a certain other forum wanted to listen to Deadline when they quoted Shazam's prod cost at $100m (insisting instead that it was $80m), but I've maintained for years that Deadline's insider sources are bar none. We may never know precise budgets, but at least Deadline generally gets closer than anyone else when it comes to getting the scoop on budgets

I mean the box office running behind was primarily due to some very weak early months. How much space there is in the market now is a different story. A weak Jan/Feb/March doesnt mean Godzilla in its current frame has a lot of breathing room, because it clearly doesnt. There are a lot of big wide releases hogging screens and more to come I still have faith in KoTM, but to say that there is breathing room in the market right now because the overall BO is down y-o-y is to ignore how packed this May has been and the competition KoTM faces

"I know EG's your favorite movie ever, but you dont have to make up false statements to defend it" What the hell haha, why are you attacking him personally. Besides which, he is not fabricating any facts, if you disagree with him why not just say "I dont think casual audiences care about box office numbers". My goodness, does every response to AEG have to filled with hyperbole or vitriol?

I never saw anyone say TFA was locked... At least on a certain other box office forum people were very hesitant about saying that Avatar WW is another thing, it was hard not to get excited haha

Douban not being so great really doesnt matter much. Rampage, Kong Skull Island, The Meg, JW2, monster movies seem to make ridiculous amounts of money in China despite low scores. I dont think there is any reason to worry about KoTM. If you read the reviews on Douban the consensus seems to be great monster action, mediocre human story. Delivering on the monster action is much more important for these kind of films, KoTM will slay

3 billion is not right around the corner haha. In fact, 2 billion is still out of reach for non Disney films (Avatar now being part of Disney). Strip away the Cameron films (the performance of which is so anamlous I would write them off completely if Cameron hadnt made magic happen twice), Star Wars films (the franchise is the king of box office royalty, the ridiculous degree of intergenerational nostalgia makes the first film of the rebooted trilogy huge but then decreases, unlikely 9 will come close to 7) and the MCU films (which are as big as franchise filmmaking gets today) and you realize that Disney is making it SEEM like 3 billion might be around the corner, when in actuality I think it will take years for a non Disney film to hit 2 billion, and it will take a while for the Disney films to hit AEG heights. So to recap, a non Disney film hitting 2bn is most likely years away. Just because MCU movies smash the 1bn and 2bn barrier like its nothing does not mean they are easy barriers to break. In terms of 3bn potential, after its opening weekend AEG certainly had it, and if ER wasnt so ridiculously depressed around the globe and if AEG had gotten luckier with its release date and competition (a slate like TFA had for example) 3bn may really have been in the cards. I love MCU and SW films for the simple fact that their box office runs are absurd, but both franchises will likely take years before getting to the 3bn mark. 3bn is obscene, and unless Avatar hits it in 2021, it will take a long, long time EDIT: Dont let the insane overperformance of AEG fool you. Seriously just take out the Cameron films as well as SW and MCU and look at the top all time movies worldwide. Absent those juggernauts, movies are further away from 2bn than non Titanic films were from 1bn 20 years ago. With a new normal of low inflation and market growth plateauing globally, we have a long ways to go

Not that hard to imagine given the previous box office success (and the even more absurd home market run) of that pack of lions. That pack of lions formed the crown jewel of the Disney renaissance era. Nostalgia is arguably the most potent force at the box office nowadays. The more evenly spread four quadrant appeal + nostalgia even give this pack of lions some advantages over the (previous) MCU juggernaut

500m DOM as a benchmark to declare a film a "blockbuster"? No way. I agree 300m is the magic number if there was such a thing Lets just say I am at least twice DAJK's age. You guys seem to be operating under the assumption that 300m dom was the previous benchmark. I can say quite confidently that this was not the case. If you go back 10 years anything over 200m was great, over 250m (a la Star Trek 2009) was considered a big blockbuster domestically Jurassic World is the only non-Disney film to cross the 500m barrier in the past 9 years 500m is rarefied ground, 400m is quite spectacular, and 300m dom+ is a blockbuster

Of course AEG has done very well in USD terms, but given ER depreciation in RUB terms its even more impressive. Also, MCU films have been struggling to grow in Russia since the heydey of Dark World and IM3. Only AEG was capable of bucking the trend

How very insightful.... But I mean at this point its not particularly big and was completely expected. It dropped like this last weekend without as much competition (Pikachu and JW3 both opening this week). Plus its only slightly worse % wise than what IW did in the same frame. This is a massive frontloaded film in a fast burn market, nothing out of the ordinary The film has already been hitting way outside its batting range in Russia, 10m USD over IW and even more in RUB (given ER/ATP drop). This is the 22nd film in a franchise that has given more than enough time to define its audience. It gives the film a nice floor but also limits upside due to limited accessibility. The film has used up its core audience and there are enough films now that are first choice in demos AEG struggled to hit. Its going to keep fading fast, but its already done as much damage as any MCU film could have done so we can lay it peacefully to rest

It has to do with how this daily box office source calculates ER. Since ER has dropped since the film was released, this source recalculates the entire gross at the lower rate What the studio has been reporting captures ER more accurately, since they are not adjusting previous weeks grosses to match current ER So long story short, AEG's gross is higher than what you see in the dailies (but the dailies themselves are accurate, so only take the overall gross reported with a grain of salt)

My goodness that ER.... So after years of inflation the ER drops to the point where AEG is still below Avatar in USD terms with the same admissions? Similar thing in Brazil where AEG recently passed Titanic in admissions with the same USD gross But about Cameron gross comparisons in general, I subscribe to the notion that Cameron films should just be kept in their own category haha

First of all, I am very sorry if I offended you or anyone else. I also very much apologize for insinuating anything about German filmgoing habits. Swiss-German tastes (at least as reflected in the box office) are very similar and I believe the success of some recent, shall we say not such high quality films (like After and The Hustle), has everything to do with a general lack of appealing films to German and Swiss moviegoers and definitely not that German/Swiss taste in film is better/worse than those of people from any other country (saying something to that effect would be truly condescending and hypocritical) About my comments regarding the quality of The Hustle, have you seen the film? How bad does a film need to be before calling its quality into question is not considered condescending? Sure, the fact that Dirty Rotten Scoundrels is one of my favorite movies is an additional source of bias, but come on. Aside from the actresses having natural screen presences, everything from the script to the technical aspects of the film are downright poor in quality. There is little creativity or ambition and few interesting directorial choices. It isn't a piece of art, its a studio film remake, and I think at a certain point we can draw comparisons about film quality without being condescending

Not to mention IM1 was technically an independent film, I have a feeling we won't see another major franchise born that way Also, I take a bit of an issue with the "original/new material" thing with John Wick. This is, after all, the third film in a franchise, and ultimately the tone, style and storytelling is, in my opinion, slightly less changed than in many other "reinvigorated" franchises including even some of the biggest (such as the MCU, DCEU and the Fast franchise) In my opinion what sets John Wick apart is that its basically arthouse action, created with a team of the best working stuntmen and fight choreographers. It knows what it is and it delivers, but unlike what its doing with its action, it isnt reinventing the wheel storytelling wise Plus Keanu is a national (albeit Canadian) treasure, and the first film had a 20m budget 90m WW gross, he built this franchise from nothing