Justin4125

Whats the big deal with that? First Man was tracking at the same level and Universal put in 3640 theaters. I think its awesome that Disney is willing to push an adult oriented artsy sci-fi movie that they know is far from a surefire win. Besides, Disney isnt really used to batting at this lower level.... Im happy theyre respecting the legacy Fox assets

I personally doubt it. Critics had some problems with it but audiences largely ate it up. Also better critical reception may have boosted it a bit in the states (maybe closer to the 650m box office pro originally suggested) but at least in Europe reviews were great as was audience response (internationally the narrative was quite different and RT hardly plays a role). Counterfactuals are a bit foolhardy to begin with, but I would argue the film is playing pretty close to its full potential and that 2bn was probably never in store, if cinemascore and social scores across the world (barring China) are any indication, I dont think Disney left much money on the table with this one As an aside I would argue the film is largely the best version of itself. The technology and realism both enhanced the must see nature of the film (pulled in many curious about the the lifelike quality of the animals) and held back its heart. If they had opted for more expressionful and soulful depictions of the animals that would have detracted from the live action component and would have bordered on a 3D reimagining, it may have made fans happier, but it could have risked the justification for the film's existence. TLK was made to be animated, more than anything I think the film affirmed the value of more traditional animation and the limits of realism

Brazil is a relatively mature market, it doesnt experience such crazy market growth. However, the cinema industry only "matured" (or at least hit a state of relatively steady progression) not more than 10 years ago, it makes sense therefore that all the top movies are recent. Also inflation has been unable to offset ER depreciation, so the market hasnt grown over the last 10 years in dollar terms (again, partly because Brazil is not China and is far a more established market). Its far from guaranteed that the top movies will be so easily supplanted, it depends on the upcoming slate and in the next 2 years I think its hardly a given that we'll see such turnover in the top 10

Some great news thanks. With strong runs in France and Japan (at least as high as the first It, which may be unlikely) I think It2 wil smash 500m WW, that would be a big win (227.5 DOM (2.5 multi), 258.5 OS-France and Japan (2.5 multi, I think it will do slightly better internationally legs wise) and 40m+ from France, Japan and other territories still to open = 502.5m+

I agree that blaming Disney is a bit hyperbolic and certainly unproductive, but I take serious issue with your use of the word "flop". It2 is a smashing success expectations be damned, and Shazam and Pika were both successes, albeit on a more modest scale (if you factor in that they were well-liked and that each launched a new franchise, Id even say they were quite successful). Also both movies played around EG, so while its not like EG (and by extension Disney) prevented them from being billion dollar hits, that movie certainly sucked a lot of oxygen out of the box office. KoTM is closest to my heart and I was the most active Ive ever been on this forum when it released. I dont recall a single person blaming Disney for its relative underperformance. Also to clarify again, while its hard to argue that KoTM was a success, it certainly wasnt a flop either

My god you guys. There is nothing Disney is doing that other studios arent or cant. They are unbeatable when it comes to building massive, franchiseable IP, and there is nothing nefarious or underhanded about it. You dont have to like Disney, but to malign them at every opportunity or somehow suggest that they have inherent competitive advantages is baseless. Every studio wants and tries to release Disney-like tentpoles (though I really really like the direction some (mainly WB) are taking in carving out their own niches to dominate (horror, adult-oriented, etc). If you take Live Actions out of the equation (a bit of snake eating its own tail situation) Disney is where it is because of its emphasis on talent and story telling. At the end of the day (over the past almost 100 years) those two things are perhaps the most accountable for Disney's success. Disney cuts no corners budget or timeline when it comes to developing their films, and generally profit through years of old fashioned good will and consistency across sequels. It seems like everyone has a problem with Disney, and I hear more about Disney's malicious tactics than I do about any other studio, but its just too much. Clearly Disney's success hits people at an emotional level not an intellectual one Also, can we stop shaming audiences here. Its a lot harder to make a movie that everyone wants to see than some of you are making it seem. Every studio is doing everything it can to accomplish that goal, but audiences are fickle. Iger ushered in a new era of M&A, which when combined with Disney's movie making process, has turned Disney into the goliath we see today. Disney is the industry leader for a reason, and it got there without any advantages or villainous intent. Every studio "weaponizes nostalgia". You dont have to like Disney's movies to accept their current place in the pole position (itll change soon, it always does) but just keep in mind that we are in the midst of an unprecedented year. Without genuine competitive advantages, its only a matter of time before another studio beats Disney at their own game, so no need for Disney conspiracies btw lab276, in my limited experience exhibs love Disney because they more often than not respect the theatrical window and rarely ask for 6 week guarantees (as many other studios do, even for smaller releases). Every studio pressures exhibs on their tentpoles, Disney just has more of them. Ive heard some rumblings, but the word on the exhib street (at least between 2008- 2011) was very positive regarding Disney (in stark contrast to what I read on these kind of forums)

It totally is though. Look at gross in USD relative to admissions. Exchange rates in Brazil have over-powered inflation. Go back as far as Titanic's gross 20+ years ago, ATP in dollar terms is close to that of 2019

I don't think it has enough gas left. For some reason this seems to be a contrarian position, but to pass JW it needs $163m more and it just grossed $38m globally. With summer weekdays winding down, I would be surprised if it passes JW. Grosses in Japan and Italy (the two regions it needs to perform well in in order to pass JW) tend to collapse when summer ends. It can do it, but its not a lock

It just had a $38m global weekend and you think it can do $190m more? Especially with summer coming to an end its hard for me to see that

It seems its rank 4 all in Europe (if not its very close). The whole EG underperforming in Europe is overblown. Sure there are some territories where franchises stand out (like the Tolkien films in Germany), but EG is consistently high across each country in Europe. In relative terms its performances in the US, LatAm and Asia are more impressive, but it still kicked ass in Europe

Overall EG is the top 1 film of all time in both Asia and LatAm, top 5 all time in Europe (and of course rank 2 in the US). I think its fair to say that love is shared globally

Deadline is comparing based on today's exchange rates. Same reason why Deadline explained that Hobbs and Shaw opened 1% above Fast 6 despite opening 30% below in dollar terms in comparable markets

When it comes to reporting international BO, especially in Asian countries, Disney (along with WB) might be the least guilty of all the studios when it comes to real BO fudging (as in lying about numbers, not things like double features or expansions). In general Disney seems to underreport more often than they overreport. When it comes to domestic BO, there arent many ways to truly lie about numbers since there are so many third party sources that can verify or challenge your numbers. In some cases studios report numbers that the industry challenges, but I havent heard of this happening with Disney like I have with studios like Paramount. I think Ive seen you make the same post a couple times. Disney has plenty of faults just attack something else.

I think its a little too early to declare the death of non-Disney films. We all knew what we were in for, Disney had so much massive IP playing this year no one should be surprised about the outcome. But for many of the non-Disney under-performers, there were clear reasons for why they disappointed. Did Glass's performance truly surprise anyone? The film's ending was divisive and it failed to match the previous two films in terms of quality. I would argue it performed just fine everything considered. Looking at each of the under-performers individually, they either represented big steps down in terms of quality, were part of fading franchises or played too damn close to some of the biggest movies of all time. Its not entirely the fault of moviegoers for why these films struggled at the BO. IT2 is playing far away from the Disney tentpoles and its offering something different from what moviegoers have gotten from the glut of massive Disney IP this year. Horror has also thrived in this new movie world order and I honestly have no worries about the film's quality thanks to Andy Muschietti and what we've seen in the trailers. Happy with an OW above 80m? I cant believe we have gotten to this point. I personally dont see any trend that would suggest a massive fall off for this movie, instead I see many movies whose performances makes total sense in retrospect. I would be absolutely shocked if this film were to open below 100m and I would not be surprised to see this film take the R-rated opening weekend record. I would stake real money on the former.

I also dont quite understand why so many people are expecting such a steep drop from Part 1 to Part 2. I think a lot of people think the series peaked with Part 1 given the film's outrageous BO, but all I see are indicators of a potential break out sequel (for a horror film, part 1 had great legs and fantastic home ent sales, great trailer reaction and hype, even better release date than part 1 (lack of competition before and after release) and (very much my opinion) an amazing director operating at the top of his game on a project perfectly suited to him)

On the creative side its Marvel Studios, plain and simple This is how these things work. Pascal gets a nod towards her production company given her early involvement and absolutely critical role in arranging this deal with Kevin Feige and Disney and Columbia is there to represent Sony's interests. In terms of the creation of the film and overseeing the production of the film, its a Marvel Studios film. In so many words that was the deal they struck with Sony, they gained creative control in exchange for giving Sony full financial participation. Its why Sony cant shove Spiderman into their other films (and why Venom will only join the MCU at the behest of Marvel studios) and why the previous two Spiderman films were part of the MCU's phase 3 and 4. Whatever role Sony has in the creative process is in the spirit of greater cooperation, but Marvel Studios has final say. Spiderman is in their franchise, Disney and Marvel Studios are not going to give Sony any power in dictating the direction of their crown jewel franchise, especially after Sony and Columbia managed to bungle Spiderman twice in the past Besides understanding the logic of the arrangement between Disney and Sony, have you seen the films? HC and FFH are distinctly Marvel Studios films

What are you talking about? There are many studios that are guilty of the "Puerto Rican fugde", but Disney is one of the only studios that does not regularly fudge Puerto Rican numbers (Fox, for example, was repeatedly caught double counting Puerto Rico numbers) Couldnt agree more, if anything H&S will help build goodwill towards Fast 9. Its also a big deal for a franchise like Fast to successfully launch a spin off

Unlikely, EG had surprisingly good legs in Vietnam. FF8 had a higher OW than EG (in $) but EG finished significantly higher (almost 4x multiple compared to FF8's 2.1x). Why did EG have such crazy legs in Vietnam, was it boosted by a holiday? While HS will almost definitely not pass EG in Vietnam, I am very encouraged by the film's opening there. Hopefully its indicative of a solid performance in the rest of Asia

To be fair, Germany and Japan are the worst regarding this ticket sales to population metric of all major countries for the MCU (and for the last 10 years of hollywood blockbusters in general)

Interesting about the deadline report, they mention that at today's rates and same markets, F8 opened to 171m, thats down from the 221.6m it did at 2017 rates in those same markets. Puts into perspective just how far ER has fallen in the last 2 years

Yea certain holidays are great for movies. The biggest single movie going holiday in the states is the Christmas-New Years corridor, and I will always maintain that had AEG released in that frame it would have flirted with 1bn dom. Considering AEG's presales relative to those of TFA, it would have had a monster OW regardless of its release date and it really could have used the two weeks of insane legs and subsequent lack of competition to hit all four quads as hard as possible Anyways, counterfactuals are impossible and annoying and I know this one is particularly contentious, so I apologize to bring it up again. I guess the great China release date offsets the US release date

I mean, no not really. When you re-release 22 movies in 10 years, all of which are at the very least positively reviewed by critics (the majority of which are very well reviewed) and all but one box office successes (and 2 in the top 5 grossing movies of all time) I think you can easily say the MCU represents a uniquely incredible cinematic achievement Whether you like the MCU or not is something else entirely, but to deny that the franchise hasnt just set a high bar in franchise filmmaking (and which definitely represents one of the greatest cinematic achievements of all time) that is no longer subjective my friend, it just isnt, to say otherwise is to put your own subjective feelings about the MCU above all the available data EDIT: Wow Im so sorry for the dramatic reaction, I see you were contending that it may not be the "greatest" not that it isnt "great". Yes, you're right, to declare it the greatest of all time is a little bit contentious, but it is certainly among a small group of the greatest (you could also say the franchise represents the greatest box office achievement, as opposed to cinematic achievement)

No one asked me, but I am going to comment regardless. Avatar's run is more impressive, sure, though I wouldn't go so far as to say far more impressive. Avatar had many things fall into place, and unless it can replicate that success, the idiosynratic advantages it had will always detract from its success somewhat. The big issue I see brought up often is the presence of a fan base. I think what people fail to realize is that most of the highest grossing movies of all time were not franchise, fan-based films, but rather original films. Sure, original titles have struggled in the last 10 years (though this has been a relatively newer development). but in general, a big fan-base often comes with strong delineations between the fan and non-fan. When you're competing for the highest grossing movie of all time, its not a competition of Avatar vs. EG. Its technically a competition between all movies ever. An original title has the potential, however unlikely, to supercede any divides between groups of people and demographics and play as widely as possible. Fan-based event films, no matter how big, face restrictions. Endgame was not an accessible film, it basically played almost exclusively to fans of the series, and at 22 movies into the franchise, general audiences have had plenty of time to determine whether or not they are fans. Its very rare for a franchise to break out of these, shall we say, restricted audiences. Very often, later franchise films fail to out sell the break out original, because over time audiences become more and more entrenched. So, what makes Endgame so impressive, is that it is part of a franchise that pushes the limits of its prospective audience. Endgame played very heavily towards the over 25 crowd, majority male and mainly to franchise converts. It didnt strike out across under nourished demos (families (which only made up 11% of OW! and females) yet it still managed to surpass not only the previous biggest movie in the franchise (one fricking year earlier), but also the inflation adjusted totals of its original break out film (A1). So while the MCU fanbase gives MCU films a box office cushion, it also sets limits. Limits, which, Endgame seemed to push to the extreme. Again, when talking about the highest grossing movies of all time, Avatar represents one of thousands of outcomes. It happened to be the film that rose to the top of the all time box office chart, and for that to happen many factors had to fall into place at the right time (a new technology, a sharply falling global economy, a weak dollar, a great release date (December and minimal competition for weeks and weeks, AND, the broadest possible audience). However unlikely their success, original titles have the potential to play far broader than any late franchise film, and that is exactly what Avatar did. So in conclusion, a fan-base does not necessarily make EG's record any less impressive, in fact I would argue it has the opposite effect, as Endgame will soon become the first non-original film to become the highest grossing movie ever

For the record, the film business, from an investment standpoint, is one of the worst out there. You can't have a monopoly because viewers, ultimately, are fickle. Its not a totally dominatable industry so long as there are other studio majors. Its part of why the MCU is so impressive, but also why Disney will not always be the number 1 studio (even if it retains that position more consistently than other studios) Disney is hardly responsible for the by and large mediocre offerings from its competitors so far this year. Clearly there are exceptions, I for one enjoyed HTTYD3, Us and Shazam, but these films cant compete with the likes of EG, TS4 and FFH

In my opinion no way. You have to compare EG to IW, not to TS4, and EG really over indexed in that regard. But look at TS3's gross in Mexico 2010! Mexico leans heavily in family films, especially animated, as much if not more so than SH films. It takes the MCU's biggest titles (Avengers) to compete with the likes of Coco and TS3. So it seems about right to me that such a well made Toy Story sequel is right up there with EG