Justin4125

I think Lion King is #3 all time behind Avatar and TFA in EMEA, Endgame is #4. TLK grossed 520m from the EMEA countries listed on Mojo, and Endgame did 465m (real EMEA numbers are at least 10m higher for each movie). In terms of Euro majors TLK won in France, Italy and Spain, Endgame won in Germany and the UK. That was completely expected though, Europe is Endgame's worst region while it is TLK's strongest region. Live Action films like TLK, Alice and BatB routinely outperformed MCU biggies, nostalgia is a major factor in Europe. Also Live Actions perform very very well in the smaller Euro countries like Sweden, Norway, Netherlands and Switzerland, that's where TLK really pulled ahead of Endgame

What is this guy's problem? No response to your comments demonstrated bias, you misspoke and you were corrected, its pretty simple. As someone without any skin in the EG vs Avatar sparring match, only your comments seem overtly bias. If JC himself is totally mature and chill about Avatar getting dethroned, is it really worth the high blood pressure for you to get constantly aggravated about it? Let the numbers speak for themselves, no one thinks any less of Avatar's achievement just because EG passed it. Kevin Feige's first public statement about EG taking the record was to qualify the record breaking run by mentioning the inflation boost. If both JC and Kevin Feige, the two people with the greatest stakes in Avatar and EG respectively, can be civil and composed, I would hope us BOT members can at least maintain a modicum of civility as well. Both movies were massive successes, can we just move on? Also that's a nice hold for Jum3. My guess is that in two (maybe three) weeks Jum3 will surpass TROS in dailies. Amazing how backloaded the film remains despite being a sequel. The Jumanji franchise seems tailor made for the Xmas season

I think its clear with all this Star Wars "failure" talk that we're using the word "failure" in a different way than, say, "flop". A movie can still profit at the BO and be deemed a "failure" in a relative sense. TROS will make a greater profit than BvS, yet it still "failed" to live up to the high expectations of the franchise (just as BvS failed to live up to the potential of its titular characters and the massive BO drawing power of the SH genre). I do, however, think we need to distinguish movies like TROS and BvS from movies like Justice League, Solo or Transformers Last Knight. Those were flops, which goes beyond the definition of failure this board seems to use. As a side note I think TROS is more analagous to Justice League than to BvS. The Last Jedi was Star Wars' BvS. It divided GA and fans alike. but it still made a lot of money off of the hype it had behind it. Just as Justice League paid for BvS's divisiveness, so too did TROS pay for the mistakes of TLJ

Rogue One was a big hit, it made more that ROTS adjusted for inflation. I don't think Disney expected a spin-off to outearn ROTS upon their acquisition of Lucasfilm. Given all that has happened to the current franchise since RO was released (including a spinoff featuring a pole character making sub 400m WW), I dont think a ~$500m dom finish is terrible, its just a wash. A big nothing, boring but certainly not laughably bad as it appears you want to make it seem

I think it would be fair to call SW the biggest franchise ever domestically. That doesnt necessarily reflect its current BO drawing power, though I do think this is the only franchise that can "flop" to around 500m domestically. Look at ANH, TPM and TFA on the all time domestic chart, who would contend that SW isnt the biggest franchise of all time domestically? The only other franchise in the same ballpark domestically is the MCU with 4 titles that topped 600m, but I give the edge to SW given the performance of the three titles I mentioned previously Overseas is a different story. No one, I repeat no one, would ever contend that SW is the biggest franchise overseas Still, I don't understand this whole "how the mighty have fallen" narrative. The relative underperformance of TROS doesnt all of a sudden invalidate all the success of the SW IP over the past decades. Besides, its been clear that the current SW films have been on a downward trajectory since TLJ. The performance isnt at all surprising when its current reception and WOM is accounted for. Yes, this film is a disappointment (by the franchise's high standards) but its not a surprising one. Disney SW is in damage control, but at least it can recoup its losses from Solo with TROS before heading back to the drawing board

Its a pretty poor track record. How hard was it to predict the success of Infinity War and Endgame (both ranked number one in the past two years lists)? It gives a sense for what movies people are excited for I guess, but its a very crude metric

Fandango's most anticipated list has a bad track record when it comes to box office results. This is even more so the case with animated movies (Incredibles 2 was behind JWFK, Deadpool and Solo in 2018's list). Also in that same list Oceans 8, A Wrinkle in Time and Dark Phoenix (at the time had a Nov 2nd 2018 release date) made the list, while Ralph Breaks the Internet, Hotel Trans and The Grinch did not. Frozen 2 didn't even make the list for 2019, whereas Glass was ranked 6th (coming in even higher than The Lion King!) Superhero movies are always ranked highest in Fandango's lists, so I wouldn't put that much stock in their placement either

I'm not attacking you here keep doing what you're doing, but your capacity to act *surprised* about Joker's OS performance is truly remarkable. I fail to see how it is so surprising that Joker will outperform TROS OS when Joker passed the OS total of every previous SW flick except TFA. That's like if I mentioned BP's domestic performance after every big tentpole came in under it. Omg, can you believe a movie with near all black cast and no nostalgia-bait is making more domestically than a SW/TA movie? Wow can you believe it did better than TLK? Who would have thought it would make more domestically than Justice League did worldwide? The numbers speak for themselves, this constant re-contextualizing is wearing thin. Besides, any single film can under-perform. What does it really say that BP dom out-grossed Justice League WW? Its surprising, sure, but its clear the box office numbers betray the true power of the Justice League IP. Singling out under-performers and using them to frame and further boost the success of an out-performer is a near-sighted approach to analyzing film success and the viability of IP. BP's numbers are no more impressive (or Justice League's any less impressive) by framing one with the other. One out-performed and the other under-performed, but the factors surrounding the performance of each film dominate. SW is clearly on the backfoot, but its relatively lackluster performance does not make any other 1bn+ grossers any more impressive, all it says is that TROS film under-performed. I am genuinely curious though, is there an experienced box office tracker on this site who is surprised by TROS's performance? The saga has been on a downward trajectory, and the last film, Solo, outright bombed, providing a clear indication about audiences' feelings towards the franchise at the current moment. The more optimistic forecasts assumed the film would be better received, but the divisive critical reaction caught many off guard and it immediately moderated expectations. The only thing it seems experienced trackers were unsure about was whether this film could help fans reconcile their feelings about the current trilogy. When it appeared that this would largely not be the case, expectations simmered. TROS has more or less everything going against it from critics and fans alike, yet it will still pull 1bn+. SW has maintained a place in our zeit-geist for decades. While TROS is in damage control mode, it does not necessarily spell doom for the IP. Course corrections are required, but such corrections and a few year gap can still re-invigorate the franchise, making a future SW film a leader once again across mature markets (growth markets are a serious concern, but I'm not ready to count the franchise out yet). HP1 - 3 out-performed AOTC and ROTS, but TFA topped HP8 by a wide margin. Franchises should only be partly judged on their under-performers, especially the rare ones like SW that have demonstrated exceptional staying power, and I'm not ready to count SW out due to recent under-performers

2bn was equally crazy, especially to expect such numbers. You might have 2bn somewhere in a wide probability distribution, but Disney's financial analysts could not reasonably model that as an expected outcome. You can't look at Episode 1 a decade+ earlier and expect TFA to repeat that level of success, especially since the movies following Ep1 declined at the BO and each new trilogy carries many latent risks. Are audiences still as engaged? Would they all embrace a new trilogy? Will younger markets like China be on board? Additionally, there was no way of knowing that the film would get such solid audience reception and exceptional critical reviews. Clearly the SW brand gives you a high bar, but 2bn was a very unexpected result

I deleted my post because I agree with narniadis, I apologize for engaging. To recap my previously overlong response, I agree with George Parr, TFA's success was unpredictable on many levels, and it would be misguided to contextualize TROS's success with the success of both TFA and RO. They set a bar far higher than Disney (or any other studio) could have anticipated. As a sidenote, the return on their investment in SW also exceeded expectations. Read through their annual reports, merch sales from SW alone would help them recoup that 4bn over time. Between movies, tv, video games and park attractions, the SW IP has more than justified the acquisition. So, despite releasing 5 movies in 4 years, and despite losing a substantial audience following TLJ and Solo, SW films can still clear $1bn. TROS isn't as big a success as Disney would have hoped *after* (and only after) TFA, but it still proves the power of the SW IP. BO returns diminished over the trilogy, but this is largely separate from the long-term value of the IP

I see it coming in below just 750m WW for the second weekend, still solid though. TLJ had more holidays left following its second week, so clearly it will win out BO wise. Regardless, TROS will cross 1bn with relative ease

Calm your shit, he's giving us numbers 8 hours in advance. Its as close as anyone can get with early data. Also studios are just providing estimates right now, often Jedi Jat's actuals are better than some studios estimates (typically during weekends, during the holidays all we have are estimates). Occasionally there's a bit of a surprise like with UG, but again, these are early numbers and without Jedi Jat most of the time we wouldn't have anything EDIT: Even I missed that he wasn't including previews, which explains the discrepancy. Still, I'll take numbers that are sometimes fractionally off but 8 or more hours early vs no numbers at all. No need for you to be rude, he puts in a lot of time to produce those numbers for us

In all fairness lets see how JW3 performs first. Its highly likely people are getting a little tired of Jurassic World as well and that the new trilogy follows in the footsteps of the OG trilogy (where the 3rd grossed about 1/3 of the original. TLJ still outperformed JWFK by a few million worldwide, I wouldnt say its out of the question that JW3 also tops out around 1.1bn. The difference is definitely China, if interest is still growing there, that will offset declines elsewhere. Unfortunately SW just isnt a player in growth markets, which hurts it WW potential long term

When I see comments like this, which I see as akin to studio ticket buying conspiracies, I am reminded of the rampant stupidity of internet trolls. I know, that's harsh, but there is nothing anyone could tell me to believe that this "quixoticlux" is an intelligent person. Rather than accept the obvious, that TROS has been rather well rated by audiences on RT, people are willing to invent elaborate and fallacious conspiracies First of all, Fandango/RT is owned 70% by Comcast (Universal) and 30% by Warner Bros. If any studio has any influence over the site and its scores, it would be one of Disney's biggest competitors, not Disney Secondly, pray tell, how would this manipulation work? The CEO, who hardly involves himself in the technical minutiae of audience score management, issues an order from the top for his employees to manipulate the audience score of a single movie? This would risk his job, his reputation, and all for what? So that a movie made by his previous employer (for whom movies represent but a small part of their business anyways) has a slightly higher audience score? This is a simple fallacy of believing things that matter to you (quixoticlux) matter so much to a big studio/big exec that they would risk everything for the most insignificant of boosts to the perception of their film (in this case not even the exec's film, but the film of his previous employer the success of which does not benefit him in the slightest)? This is one of many audience scores, and the difference between say 75% and 86% would have an unprovable, and if provable negligible, impact on the film's success. Even if it slightly improved the BO, it would be impossible to attribute the BO to the score, meaning there would be no way to reward the CEO's efforts to manipulate the score. He would be risking his position as CEO to make a single movie seem slightly better received by audiences on but one of many websites rating audience reception? The audience score on RT of many movies stays relatively constant after a certain amount of ratings (sometimes as little as 500). This has everything to do with statistics (sampling and probability) and nothing to do with some direct deception. The simple answer is usually the correct answer and incentives matter (would love to hear how you think the rewards to slightly improving an audience score compensate for the risks involved not only to the CEO (who would lose his job), but to the site as a whole (the loss of credibility would ruin the company entirely, seeing as how aggregating ratings is their bread and butter). Not even Disney itself would risk intervening on something as trivial as an audience score on a single site (even if RT is one of the biggest stateside, it hardly matters internationally), this is a company with billions and billions to lose risking it all to marginally improve a single barometer of audience reception for a single film. Do you have any idea how shareholders would react if it came to light that Disney is untrustworthy in this way. If the company manipulated something so trivial what else are they manipulating? Can the data they report be trusted? Disney would lose billions in equity capital overnight. I understand higher order critical thinking (which is hardly required to understand that this alleged manipulation is totally unfounded) is in short supply, but still, I have a hard time believing people can stay so willfully ignorant

You're acting like a 20 film build up entitles the film to a big box office run? 20+ movies in 10 years is as much a liability as it is a plus. EG made that much DESPITE releasing so many films in such a short time period. I dont think any franchise can make so many movies and maintain interest. Part of TFA's huge box office was the years long wait, as we've seen the SW can't support the same frequency of movies released... Also I don't think anyone is disputing that SW is domestic box office royalty. Four decades of nostalgia is a powerful thing, the MCU built its audience without similar levels of intergenerational nostalgia Lastly, I dont think we'll see a movie pull inflation adjusted numbers of A New Hope. The changing topography of cinema has all but ensured that (more competing mediums, fewer repeat viewings) I want to finish with this. The MCU is more of a worldwide phenom precisely because it struck a chord in the zeitgeist in current time, whereas SW did it 40 years ago (hence the majority of its audience residing in mature markets). Again, no one is disputing SW drawing power, and I think people need to remember SW is much more than just these current films, the diminishing returns at the box office matter much less than people believe given the franchise's power as a multimedia franchise (merch, video games, books, rides (more successful than people think= now tv series). SW will rise again, its staying power is indisputable, that's much more than can be said about many one off box office surprises, which is why the success of this single film (TROS) cant be compared to other more recent hits (MCU is comfortably in another category given the level and consistency of its success over 11 years)

Dude these comparisons are inane, I can't force you to stop, but these misguided comparisons are just that, misguided. I understand if you're new to box office tracking, and if you are let me explain.... Star Wars films make 50% of their OS gross in only five territories, UK, Germany, France, Australia and Japan. Everywhere else SW films are B or C level blockbusters. Even a minor CBM flick will outgross SW in Asia and a B level blockbuster will outgross it in LatAm. SW makes 75%-80% of its money from those five territories plus domestic. No one, I repeat no one, on this site is/was surprised that Joker bested SW in LatAm (I've seen you posting in the Brazil and Mexico threads...). In fact, even before Joker broke out, all the experienced trackers on this site would have guessed that it would outearn SW films in Asia (ex Japan) and LatAm. This is not news..... Its like posting over and over again that Star Wars is only making 20m in China when a movie like Rampage or Skyscraper grossed 80m+ more. Certain movies do well in certain regions, SW movies are not blockbusters outside of their core markets. If you want to act surprised, the only place where your comparison is any way justifiable is Italy. Now, SW flicks are also mediocre performers in Italy. Why? Italy is a weird market, it is quite different from the rest of Europe. Let me give you some examples. The Shape of Water and the Wrestler are both past Golden Lion Winners, and in both cases Italy was a top 3 OS market for them (where normally Italy rarely enters the top 10). Look at Shape of Water, a golden lion winner that made less than 200m WW, It made 50% more in Italy than Guardians of the Galaxy! In fact, it made as much money in Italy as Spain combined as Captain America Civil War! How incredible, who would have thought that the Shape of Water, which grossed under 200m worldwide, would make more money in Spain, and a comparable amount in Italy, as the 1.1Bn grosser MCU movie?! Again, this is not a surprise. Four quad blockbusters rarely break out in Italy, and when they do, its movies like Alice in Wonderland and the Lion King. You either have a movie with award-winning cache (Golden Lion in particular) or a Disney remake, not a Star Wars movie. Star Wars movies, with the exception of TFA, are just B-level blockbusters in Italy. So about your comments that TROS would "bomb" in various markets, let me just repeat one last time, it was always going to "bomb" in LatAm and Asia, and after Joker's performance in Italy and Spain, there was a 99.9999% chance it would outgross TROS by a significant margin in those territories. Given TLJ's performance in those regions, its not even that surprising that Joker beat it in Italy and Spain. If TROS underperforms Joker in any of its core markets (US, UK, France, Germany and Japan) then wow, that is a surprise. Now that you understand a little bit more about how the box office works, I hope I don't need to read a comment about Joker's outperformance of TROS in Asia/LatAm. I hope this all stemmed from a misunderstanding about box office dynamics, if your intent is simply to troll these threads, then more power to you keep on carrying on....

Continuing your nearly impeccable track record, thanks for the consistent stream of info. Its amazing just how informative Sacto is as a region

It will. The closer proximity to the holidays leads to slightly deflated OW numbers and better second weekend drops. This is just the structure of the release date, we have plenty of comps, from the Hobbit films, Jumanji, TFA, Aquaman etc. Less frontloaded movies often even increase on second weekends with comparable release schedules (btw, where the major holidays are also advantageous compared to TLJ, TFA had this advantage as well). Regardless of WOM, differences in the release date give it a legs advantage. Given that its frontloaded I still expect 30-50% drops, but not the 60-70% TLJ and Rogue One faced

You're right that $600m may be hard to achieve, primarily with the guaranteed ~20m+ drop off in China and another ~40M or so in ER weakening, but thats not new for this domestically focused franchise. ~600M dom and ~600M OS is just fine, I think between the off-putting reviews, the very weak performance of Solo and the divisiveness over TLJ, this film had to overcome a lot. Just a slight drop from TLJ will at least shut up the doom and gloomers Also for all of you to keep in mind, TLJ opened a week earlier in many markets. The run up to Xmas tends to see slightly depressed BO before the Xmas-New Years box office tear (as movies like Jumanji and Force Awakens showed). This film has a release date advantage over TLJ, don't read too much into the international numbers. TLJ had 60-70% second weekend drops in most majors included UK, Australia and Germany. TROS will likely hold better over the holiday, and its OW numbers are slightly deflated given its proximity to the holiday

The film also has solid posttrack exits, the polling method which is far more rigorous than the RT audience score. Out of the gate, Skywalker is a win for audiences with Thursday night Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak polls showing 4 1/2 stars and a 76% definite recommend with parents and kids under 12, who showed up at 16% combined, giving the J.J. Abrams-directed finale five stars. General audiences repped 89% of the crowd. https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-opening-weekend-box-office-cats-bombshell-1202814594/ Still, those exits won't mean much. The low critic reviews and the legacy of TLJ, together with the added problems this new film raises, will clearly impact it at the BO. The point is more that this isn't a doom and gloom scenario, and it does seem, yes, that audiences are largely more happy with this film than they were with TLJ Although I must say, that RT audience score for TLJ is clearly bullshit. It had solid exits as well and an A cinemascore. So although fans (as well those who seem to get some joy over hating this franchise) have loud voices and love to rate the movie negatively wherever possible, the GA was not nearly as unhappy about TLJ compared to how some make it seem. Therefore these encouraging scores likely just reflect the changes to RT's system, and its possible may yet see a TLJ style reaction (it can't be ruled out at the very least)

Is a sign of good audience reception a good thing? Sure, I think so. I'm not the biggest SW fan, but I'm not one to actively root against a movie to fail. There's too much negativity online nowadays, why contribute to it?

BP and IW outsold TLJ by a pretty significant margins on home video domestically. IW's international sales were also likely much higher. Disney tends to prioritze the digital release, IW sold more digitally as well EDIT: Sorry for the redundant content, didn't see TalismanRing's post

It started at 3.8, so its been going up with early reviews, I'll take a positive trend where I can get one

From what I've heard, Japanese audience reception to TROS has been solid, interested to see how well it does there

We've seen this implosion many times before. Look at the first three Jurassic Park movies, they went ~$1B, ~$660m and ~$360m, that's technically even worse. Besides, we have to compare TROS to TLJ, not TFA. Even this year we had SLOP2 make half of SLOP1, and there are plenty of franchises with even steeper declines. This is alarming for Star Wars, but a ~20%-30% decline from a predecessor film and 50% down from the first in the series is nothing new or even that alarming, just by Star Wars standards it is