MovieMan89

What if Moana, R1, and Sing all fight to the death for #1 of the holiday with grosses within 20m or so?

Pot A: Moana Gross Pot B: Underworld OW Pot C: (bigger drop is the winner) Fifty Shades 2nd Weekend Drop Pot D: Why Him Total Gross Pot E: Sing Worldwide Gross Pot F: (Win or lose doesn't matter, just number of noms) La La Land Oscar Nominations

Wow, just noticed I got the 30k bonus on FB's OW. Definitely needed that!

All questions are related to the top 12, are for the 3 day weekend and are worth 1000 points unless otherwise stated. 1. Will Moana open to more than $55m? YES 2. Will Moana open to more than $65m? 3000 YES 3. Will Moana open to more than $75m? NO 4. Will Allied open to more than $12m? YES 5. Will Allied open to more than $15m? 2000 NO 6. Will Bad Santa Open to more than $12.5M? NO 7. Will Bad Santa open to more than $15M? NO 8. Will Rules don't apply open to less than $5M? 2000 YES 9. Will Rules don't apply open to less than $3M? YES 10. Will the four biggest new Openers combine to more than $100M? NO 11. Will the four biggest new Openers have a combined total gross of more than $140M by the end of Sunday? NO 12. Will Lion have a PTA above $20,000? YES 13. Will at least 2 films in the top 10, increase by more than 10%? 3000 NO 14. Will Trolls remain in the top 5? Yes 15. Will Dr. Strange cross $200m by the end of the weekend? YES 16. Will fantastic Beasts drop less than 47.5%? 2000 NO 17. Will Hacksaw Ridge stay in the top 8? YES 18. Will Inferno have a weekend below $200k? 3000 YES 19. Will Boo stay above Jack Reacher? NO 20. Will the 4D showing of Moana give us the chance to smell what Maoi is cooking? Only if you wear the special People's Glasses Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 3000 16/20 5000 17/20 7000 18/20 10000 19/20 14000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Moana's total gross at end of Sunday 102.95m 2. Predict The accountant's percentage change (If direction is not stated, I will assume the prediction is for it to drop not increase). -35.55% 3. What will be the difference between Bad Santa's Friday gross and Almost Christmas' 3 day gross? Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 3. Trolls 5. Allied 8. Hacksaw Ridge 10. Edge of Seventeen 12. Loving 16. Billy Lynn 3/6 2000 points 4/6 5000 points 5/6 8000 points 6/6 13000 points

Yeah, I'm glad now I didn't lower my 335m prediction in the winter game, even though I had been thinking for sure I made a big mistake this whole month. I got bit in the butt for lowering my $475m gut prediction for Dory in the summer game though, so didn't want to do that again.

If Sing also manages to hit that 300 mark (which may be less likely now that Moana could be a WOM beast), then we could have a top 11 of 300m+ grossers this year.

The December competition still scares me a bit, since 3x+ off a 5 day isn't exactly easy even with no competition. I have a lot of faith in it hitting 300 now, but let's not jinx it!

This is so fantastic for Moana. I absolutely believe in 90m+ for the 5 day given WOM is going to explode for it if I'm even remotely in touch at all with what the public likes.

For me Zootopia, Kubo, and Moana beat all of those, most with ease. Dory beats all but Up and Coraline. Verdict is still out on Sing, but some early reception seems to suggest a new quality benchmark for Illumination. Ponyo remains the only Miyazaki film I don't care for and I thought Kells was just ok, so I'm guessing I will like The Red Turtle and Your Name more as far as anime/foreign goes. In terms of critical reception, both are pretty evenly matched though if Sing gets raves then this year has the edge.

Er, but weren't you just arguing competition is negligible at the box office?

Still disagree. Give it a Star Wars movie and Illumination release within its first month and knock a solid 50m off the gross at least (still making it a huge hit with great WOM).

That's still not what I nor I'm sure anyone else meant with Frozen. Only that it wouldn't have had that crazy of legs without having zero competition. It's just simple box office logic.

The Red Turtle and Your Name are also supposed to be highly exceptional.

Yeah, I'm hoping for a Frozen style of breakout in Japan. Then again, they didn't totally go for BH6 despite the Japanese ties. But that could be because they're far more accustomed and interested in female leads when it comes to the medium.

I honestly think 2016 could stand the test of time as the greatest year in animated feature film history.

After seeing it I think there was no way Moana could've underperformed, imo. But we couldn't have known that for sure.

Good for Moana, hoping it can get even closer to Frozen's OD.

Brilliant. Yet another Scorsese masterpiece it seems.

Lmao, it's literally like they don't want this movie marketed AT ALL and will stop at nothing to prevent a piece of advertising. If this flops, I can't possibly imagine why!

I always thought it was R. Sisters did pretty well with that niche last xmas.

I think the teaser is completely ridiculous. Lol if they really went in a more "mature" tone for a Cars movie. That will make their problems with this franchise even bigger.

I think the trailer is pretty effective at least.

Parker is going kid friendly next year with DM3. After Sausage Party being more or less a success, they really do need to give us a new adult animated feature. And preferably not South Park 2.

Yeah sorry but not even a small chance of a Storks nom. There are 7-8 films fighting to the death for a nom this year, and even after that you have films like SLOP and Trolls that would still probably get in first. Storks would be unlikely in a field of 10 noms this year. Landmark year for the medium.