peludo

... and even 5 with Jungle Book

Sure, but I am not debating about the reasons this will not have GotG legs, which will be worse, but if SS can beat GotG DOM, and meanwhile you said it will not come close, I think SS has a chance to do it.

Well, SS is not being released in China and GotG did 677 million outside China. SS can perfectly reach that figure. And I do not see so clear that SS can not reach GotG DOM. It is really hard, but I would not rule it out yet.

According my calculations, Nemo would had done $515m OS today because of ER factor (not applied inflation or 3D). In this case, I think ER is not the main factor, as it is that it is not easy to repeat what Nemo did (13 years seem too long to make a sequel as we have already seen with Monsters University). 10 million admissions in France, 8.5 million in Germany, 5 million in Spain... That was gigantic. But IMHO, the main reason for this "disappointment" is the ENORMOUS competition. In 2003 we had as biggest animated film WW: Finding Nemo: 864m Brother Bear: 250m The Jungle Book 2: 135m Sinbad: 80m Looney Tunes. 68m Total: 1.397b In 2016 we have this: Zootopia: 1.023b Finding Dory: 872m Kung Fu Panda 3: 519m Pets: 506m Angry birds: 345m Ice Age 5: 289m Total: 3.554b The increase in WW sales is brutal since 2003 in animated films, but in the same way, the competition too. And Pets still has to make lots of money. And we still have to see Moana. We could see animation making 4.5b this year, more than 200% higher than in 2003 WW.

Wow, huge difference. I had taken those figures from comScore twitter, which said it after Friday (figures not reported). Thank you for clarifying it.

The lack of ideas is alarming. You can not trust forever in squeezing the same formulas because people get tired: a sequel, then a threequel, later a spin-off, reboots, remakes. There have been 3 original successes this year: Zootopia, Deadpool and Pets. All of them will have a sequel for sure. And maybe more than one sequel. And there is another factor: many people already have better home cinema systems than many theaters. It is becoming more interesting to see films at home instead at theaters. I prefer to go to the cinema, but I can understand that other way.

I would sign for that multiplier range right now. It would be over Civil War... As much as I want this film can have good numbers, I do not think it will get those legs. I am more with 2.1-2.2 multiplier. I know that August releases use to have good multipliers but we had never seen a 130-140 opener in this month.

Spain OW targeting to €3.7m (under Pets which is projecting a €5.5m OW). On par to Civil War (€3.6m) or Deadpool (€3.5m), for example. Harder to compare to BvS because it had a 5-day opening (€5.4m). For reference, the 3 films finished with a bit over €10m.

comScore says that previsions are €5.5m for Pets and €3.7m for SS. Both are amazing figures. Pets is at Minions level

I obtain $774m for Minions and $483m for DM2. Pretty similar numbers @MinaTakla There is a specific thread to talk about ER: Adjusting Exchange rates. I am not saying this is a wrong thread, but if you want more info, check it out. I have not updated it for a long time. Too busy . But you can find interesting information.

Good point, but still weekdays should be stronger for SS precisely because of Summer break.

I was using the Fullbuster post because he mentions BvS legs and I agree with him when he said that with BvS legs it could even reach $500m if every market is able to open as big as France or SK. Maybe that is still optimistic, but I just wanted to say that if BvS already had horrible legs and it was able to reach $450m without China, if SS can open higher than BvS in key markets (that seems the trend in some other big markets like Russia or Brazil), and it is able to have the same legs (something that should not be so hard considering that BvS legs were awful, I do not see how it can miss $400m. Look that I am not saying the $450m that BvS did. Just $400m. And I prefer to wait until Sunday, but I am seriously thinking more in what @picores is saying. It can be closer to $500m than to $400m.

That is the key. Some people say that this can not be as big as BvS because of horrible reviews and legs are going to be atrocious. But if it is already opening bigger than BvS in some big markets, and taking into account that BvS legs were already atrocious, unless SS collapses as we have never seen before I do not see how it can not make, at very least, $400m OS (BvS did $447m without China). And let's remember that weekdays should still be bigger than for a March-April release. We should wait until Sunday to say more, but business perspectives are great taking into account reviews depression.

July 29-31 (bold titles are local films) # (Last). Title: Total Gross (nº of weekend) 1 (N) . Jason Bourne: €1,736,168 (NEW) 2 (1) . The legend of Tarzan: €3,896,808 (2nd) 3 (N) . Zipi y Zape y la isla del capitán: €671,489 (NEW) 4 (2) . Now you see me 2: €2,737,040 (2nd) 5 (3) . Ice Age 5: €4,870,515 (3rd) 6 (4) . Finding Dory: €16,509,252 (6th) 7 (N) . Bad moms: €321,476 (NEW) 8 (5) . The Purge: €2,386,574 (3rd) 9 (6) . The Shallows: €1,951,974 (3rd) 10 (7) . Central intelligence: €2,947,153 (4th) 11 (9) . Me before you: €3,168,150 (5th) 12 (N) . Le goût des merveilles: €94,736 (NEW) 13 (8) . Money monster: €2,491,194 (4th) 14 (10). The BFG: €2,470,010 (4th) 15 (13). The Conjuring 2: €6,234,758 (7th) 16 (11). Independence Day 2: €4,178,109 (5th) 17 (N) . Night watchman: €43,339 (NEW) 18 (12). Solace: €563,451 (3rd) 19 (16). Sunset song: €117,573 (2nd) 20 (14). Lolo: €152,913 (2nd)

For a fair comparison you should not include the $120m that Apocalypse did in China (1/3 of the whole OS gross). Please, perspective.

Let's not dramatize. If this finishes with 65-70m DOM, it would require over 540m OS to fall behind 10%. I think it will be in 15-20% range, on par to IA4.

July 29 - August 4: 1. Suicide Squad 2. Wonder Woman 3. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 4. War for the Planet of the Apes 5. Beauty and the Beast 6. Dunkirk 7. Rogue One 8. Dr. Strange 9. Passengers 10. Moana

I do not know when school starts in UK, but we can asume stronger weekdays because Summer, at least during 3 or 4 weeks.

Agree. We can not continue with the theory that every sequel can automatically double or triple in China what the previous film did. Even more when the first one already did an enormous amount. Avatar already did $200m 6 1/2 years ago and I am not completely sold that the sequel can manage 600-700 or even 800 million. That is really hard.

Well, that would mean 30-35 million. That is not 18 as has been said. I can live with that and would confirm that Nemo is in another different league than Toy Story or Monsters in Germany.

Germany: Toy Story 2: $12m vs Toy Story 3: $17m Monsters Inc.: $14m vs MU: $13m Finding Nemo: $53m vs ???? i do not know if it will be able to reach the original amount, but it seems that Nemo is in a different league than Toy Story or Monsters in Germany.

This. With similar ER, Minions would had already made similar numbers than Frozen. I think that none of the upcoming sequels, probably not even Frozen 2, will beat Frozen. As some of you are saying it will be something no one will see coming. The ER factor has become decisive.

During last week Dory has grossed €1.5m. Previous week, it had grossed €2.1m, so -30% week-to-week. Unless it suddenly collapses, Dory should outgross TJB, which barely surpassed €17m.

Sure, that is undeniable. For that reason I do not get that being a reboot and telling us the origins of main characters and being both very good films, they have not connected outside US.