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Weekend Estimate #s FF6: 34.5 NYSM 27.8 AE: 27.3 TH3: 15.9

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Well, one of those casts didn't set the BO on fire. And I think people have grown tired of Wolverine. We'll get a better idea after The Wolverine opens.

 

That cast still sold as many tickets (if not more) than two pre-Avengers movies, not to mention had the unfavorable luck of coming after two poorly received franchise predecessors (X3 and Wolverine).

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Well, one of those casts didn't set the BO on fire. And I think people have grown tired of Wolverine. We'll get a better idea after The Wolverine opens.

 

 I don't think The Wolverine will tell us anything. I expect it to flop, and DoFP to reinvigorate the franchise

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No way. If Internship beats TITE, it would be an upset then.

 

 

Since most tracking suggests that TITE will beat Internship, the answer is no. Not an upset in the least.

I guess I have more pessimism about This is the End than most lol. 

 

I think we can agree The Heat will be the comedy of the summer though. :P

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Weekend before Labor Day. End of the summer. Traditionally a dumping ground. Studios throw out a lot of their excessive waste (crap) there. Not saying The World's End sucks (Looks awesome) BUT... Universal is wiping their hands clean. No ways around that. Geek sites refuse to comment on this cold hard fact because they interact with Wright, Pegg and Frost.

 

Unlike in the UK where its opening in mid/late July. A great slot and sign of confidence.

 

This.

 

After Shaun, Hot Fuzz, and Paul, the studio doesn't have much reason to be confident in North American box office prospects for TWE. But, who cares? Looks fantastic (IMO) and it doesn't need to make $100 million to be a success anyway.

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This.

 

After Shaun, Hot Fuzz, and Paul, the studio doesn't have much reason to be confident in North American box office prospects for TWE. But, who cares? Looks fantastic (IMO) and it doesn't need to make $100 million to be a success anyway.

 

If it does say $30M domestic and then kills on video, all good.

 

But again this one is clearly off their radar.

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 I don't think The Wolverine will tell us anything. I expect it to flop, and DoFP to reinvigorate the franchise

 

This.

 

The "real" sequel to X-Men: The Last Stand, seeing the original returning cast (a la Fast & Furious franchise) mixed together with the First Class characters, the Sentinels causing havoc, etc. All set. They have their hook.

 

Though I wonder if this may be a means to end the series more so than restarting it. Wouldn't surprise me if they went down a marketing path closer to The Dark Knight Rises.

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My main confidence in The Heat, outside of (but related to) McCarthy, is women. I don't think the trailers have painted a "must see" comedy in the same vein as The Hangover, but the two stars of the movie in the wake of Bridesmaids are going to interest the girls. And with an R-rated comedy, the guys are very likely to come along (as opposed to something like Sex and the City).

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My main confidence in The Heat, outside of (but related to) McCarthy, is women. I don't think the trailers have painted a "must see" comedy in the same vein as The Hangover, but the two stars of the movie in the wake of Bridesmaids are going to interest the girls. And with an R-rated comedy, the guys are very likely to come along (as opposed to something like Sex and the City).

 

White House Down is aiming squarely at men whilst trying to work in women.

The Heat is aiming squarely at women whilst trying to work in men.

 

Question is which has the bigger crosscover appeal for the other two quads? Fucked up thing is.. its a draw. Almost flipping a coin because both films features actors who are on box-office fire and have huge likeably factors (Tatum, McCarthy) and co-stars who are well-liked Oscar winners with hot and cold box-office stats (Bullock, Foxx).

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White House Down is aiming squarely at men whilst trying to work in women.

The Heat is aiming squarely at women whilst trying to work in men.

 

Question is which has the bigger crosscover appeal for the other two quads? Fucked up thing is.. its a draw. Almost flipping a coin because both films features actors who are on box-office fire and have huge likeably factors (Tatum, McCarthy) and co-stars who are well-liked Oscar winners with hot and cold box-office stats (Bullock, Foxx).

we all know The Heat is going to win that weekend.

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White House Down is aiming squarely at men whilst trying to work in women.

The Heat is aiming squarely at women whilst trying to work in men.

 

Question is which has the bigger crosscover appeal for the other two quads? Fucked up thing is.. its a draw. Almost flipping a coin because both films features actors who are on box-office fire and have huge likeably factors (Tatum, McCarthy) and co-stars who are well-liked Oscar winners with hot and cold box-office stats (Bullock, Foxx).

 

That's exactly why I give the edge to The Heat. All things being equal as you've described, at the end of the day, White House Down will be a semi-rehash of a movie that already came out this year while also representing yet another summer action movie. The Heat will be the fourth comedy of the summer, but if/when none of them hit that sweet spot--men and women both are still going to be looking for laughs.

 

Will they still be looking for good action? Not sure. I think they've had much more of their fill on it though thanks to IM3, F6, and Trek (sorta). Not to mention MoS and WWZ soon.

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Why are people so high on DOFP ? The franchise hasn't been relevant for the better part of the last decade. The last movie was well-reviewed and it barely scraped past $150 million. The Wolverine movie appears to have very little buzz and may very well bomb. This franchise is nowhere near its peak and will be facing intense competition in July. I will be surprised if it make $225 million.

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Why are people so high on DOFP ? The franchise hasn't been relevant for the better part of the last decade. The last movie was well-reviewed and it barely scraped past $150 million. The Wolverine movie appears to have very little buzz and may very well bomb. This franchise is nowhere near its peak and will be facing intense competition in July. I will be surprised if it make $225 million.

 

Well First Class was a 'reboot' of sorts and had to bear the brunt of two bad films. Now it has gained some goodwill and throw in the original cast, that will add quite a bit of hype.

 

Also, dat J-Law factor.

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Leaving the beach and this older guy behind me told another guy "I saw the new Star Trek" and he adked how was it and he called it "a smooth ride" and he said he plans on seeing TGG and the other guy said "JJ Abrams is doing the new Star Wars too, I wonder how that will turn out"

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Why are people so high on DOFP ? The franchise hasn't been relevant for the better part of the last decade. The last movie was well-reviewed and it barely scraped past $150 million. The Wolverine movie appears to have very little buzz and may very well bomb. This franchise is nowhere near its peak and will be facing intense competition in July. I will be surprised if it make $225 million.

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Well First Class was a 'reboot' of sorts and had to bear the brunt of two bad films. Now it has gained some goodwill and thrown in the original cast, that will add quite a bit of hype.

 

Also, dat J-Law factor.

 

The reboot argument works when the series has been in hiatus. They have been churning out movies every couple of year and you have another Wolverine movie being released this year. JLaw is a factor but she is going to be in three movies this year and the problem with a large ensemble movie is that you are diluting characters. How much individual screentime are any of these actors going to get anyway in a movie like this?

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