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Box Office Casino (please read announcement on page 366....we are archiving this one

By grey ghost, in Archived Lists and Countdowns

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, m3racer123 said:

I'll take!

Now that the second one has been taken, and the bet is closed to new entries, I'll comment that before I reflexively "inned" I saw a bit of a trap, did some research and saw what @That One Guy is thinking here and concluded that it's not as crazy as it might sound.

 

Here is a link to a BOM chart for Pure Flix's box office returns, sorted by date.

 

He's basically betting that Samson is so terrible/squeezed in this market that it will do under 2m, maybe ballpark of 1m.  He's in turn betting that BP will open so strong/have such good legs as to do more than 2m its 9th Weekend.   With an outside shot that BP will do so well that it gets north of 5m on its ninth weekend ala BatB and Zootopia.

 

Which, I mean, could happen. But even historically great CBMs like The Avengers and The Dark Knight did 4.4m and 4.1m on their ninth weekend (unadj).  I'm willing to bet 100 points that while BP can have so good run that even if it approaches 3m or 4m its ninth weekend that Sampson will limp over that amount.

 

But as I said at the top, it's not as crazy a bet as it might seem.  It's basically a proxy bet for BP doing north of 500m-525m (depending on what the OW is) and Sampson for bombing completely and doing less than 4m.

Edited by Porthos
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m3racer123 Sleeper Hit

m3racer123

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Now that the second one has been taken, and the bet is closed to new entries, I'll comment that before I reflexively "inned" I saw a bit of a trap, did some research and saw what @That One Guy is thinking here and concluded that it's not as crazy as it might sound.

 

Here is a link to a BOM chart for Pure Flix's box office returns, sorted by date.

 

He's basically betting that Samson is so terrible/squeezed in this market that it will do under 2m, maybe ballpark of 1m.  He's in turn betting that BP will open so strong/have such good legs as to do more than 2m its 9th Weekend.   With an outside shot that BP will do so well that it gets north of 5m on its ninth weekend ala BatB and Zootopia.

 

Which, I mean, could happen. But even historically great CBMs like The Avengers and The Dark Knight did 4.4m and 4.1m on their ninth weekend (unadj).  I'm willing to bet 100 points that while BP can have so good run that even if it approaches 3m or 4m its ninth weekend that Sampson will limp over that amount.

 

But as I said at the top, it's not as crazy a bet as it might seem.  It's basically a proxy bet for BP doing north of 500m-525m (depending on what the OW is) and Sampson for bombing completely and doing less than 4m.

Looking at the theater counts for next weekend, 1200 should be enough to get Samson to $4m+ when comparing to Pure Flix's other films. I agree it's not locked, and wasn't aware of how badly some of their films have performed! Still feeling pretty confident though.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
On 2/9/2018 at 1:39 PM, That One Guy said:

I bet 100 points to an unlimited amount of people that Black Panther grosses above $175M for the 3-day

Since you had 300 pts left...

 

I don't want to do it...but I still think this is too high looking at screen sets for my local area so far...

 

So, I TAKE this one...Black Panther will open $175M or less for the 3-day weekend.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Wow, I REALLY hope Black Panther gets to $175M OW

If it doesn't, just think of it as redistributing the wealth points to everyone else since you get to start over again. :ph34r:

 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Wow, I REALLY hope Black Panther gets to $175M OW

I'm am cheering for you...I just couldn't look past my locals still only putting it on 2 screens...I'm expecting an increase to 4 when they release their full schedule Tues/Wed, but Peter Rabbit and 50 Shades doing well + the other new openers + the continued longevity of Jumanji and TGS just made me think this movie won't get the needed showings to get that huge a number...

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I bet Black Panther wins 5 weekends in a row (50 points, 4 people)

I bet Black Panther wins 6 weekends in a row (50 points, 2 people)

Fucking hell CJohn, you should have joined my club :whosad: 

 

Gonna snatch the second one tho

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