Jump to content

baumer

Tuesday Numbers (jumps are minimal)

By baumer, in Numbers and Data

Recommended Posts

Gopher Summer Tentpole

Gopher

Posted
Posted

Kids movies always drop the Tuesday after Thanksgiving weekend. I don't know why, I guess some schools aren't in session those Mondays, but just look at the history. Interestingly, it seems like Hugo is playing to adults as much as kids with its drops.

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Chrestomanci Indie Sensation

Chrestomanci

Posted
Posted

Kids movies always drop the Tuesday after Thanksgiving weekend. I don't know why, I guess some schools aren't in session those Mondays, but just look at the history.Interestingly, it seems like Hugo is playing to adults as much as kids with its drops.

You may be right, looking at the Monday drop and the way it acted over the weekend. But if that's the explanation for Hugo's 12% increase, what's the explanation for HF2's, I wonder. I'm also a bit surprised that The Muppets doesn't appear to have skewed a bit more adult as well, between the nostalgia angle and the lack of interest in the muppets that I saw among kids just a couple of years ago.
Link to comment
Share on other sites








ladyevenstar22 Blockbuster

ladyevenstar22

Posted
Posted

just came back from my 4th viewing of breaking dawn 1 , it was great! glad to see its dailies are steady and doing pretty good for fourth outing in a series...in other news they just put up poster of tintin at my theatre , its the big movie i'm looking forward to in december besides oscar hopefuls!

Link to comment
Share on other sites




Chrestomanci Indie Sensation

Chrestomanci

Posted
Posted (edited)

It`s really cute that some people still can`t believe BD1 is beating DH1 domestically but that`s happening, folks. Blame HP for discovering Pattz.

If you mean BD1 has beaten DH1 on OW and on several individual days, then that is absolutely what is happening. But if you mean it will ultimately have a higher gross than DH1 . . . don't count your chickens before they've hatched. While it is certainly still a possibility, it is by no means guaranteed.BD1's Tuesday total was a bit more than 10% higher than NM's on the equivalent day. If it was able to maintain that percentage increase from NM for the rest of its run, BD1 would end up with $293.2M, still below DH1. To match DH1's total, it would in fact need to make over 13% more than NM did in the rest of its run. But maintaining a daily lead of ~10% on NM, let alone more than that, from here on out isn't likely to be easy.For instance, we know that Tuesday increases have been bigger this year in general and that they have mostly been accompanied by bigger Wednesday decreases. We may have seen that effect in part last week when BD1 had a big enough Tuesday increase to be less than 3% below NM for the day, but then had a Wednesday increase so much lower than NM's that it ended up over 12% below it on Wednesday. If something similar happens this week, BD1's daily percent advantage over NM for Wednesday is likely to be much lower than 10% and, in fact, it could even end up trailing again. Now, if it can recover again over the weekend as well as it did this weekend, that will make up for it at least somewhat, but the more days that BD1 spends with under 113% of NM's daily number now, while it's still making over a million per day, the more days it will have to have over 113% of NM's later on.There's also the question of competition. NM had to face the increasingly successful Blind Side from day 1, while NM hasn't faced any really strong competition for female audiences yet -- the fact that Blind Side really came into its own after the opening weekend may have hurt NM and may be part of why BD1 was able to gain ground back on it over the weekend. On the other hand, NM faced almost no new openers directly competing for teen and young adult female audiences during the heart of its run, with The Princess and the Frog skewing much younger, It's Complicated skewing much older and Did You Hear About the Morgans being a flop. New Year's Eve may not be nearly as strong as Valentine's Day was and in fact it may not even make more OW than The Princess and the Frog did on its first wide weekend (which was the equivalent weekend for NM), but it's almost guaranteed to aim much more squarely at the Twilight audience than any of those 2009 films did.As to overall competition, it's true that NM had to face Avatar and the chances of any movie BD1 has to face being nearly that strong are incredibly slim. But then, Avatar's biggest strength was in its legs; Sherlock Holmes 2 and Alvin 3 should easily be able to match (and probably surpass) Avatar's first weekend between them. By the time we're talking about Avatar's second weekend, NM had already been out over a month, so the numbers it was doing weren't huge at that point anyway (it only made ~$3M that weekend). And while the combination of the second weekends of SH2 and Alvin 3 and a slew of new openers may have difficulty matching the gross of the second weekend of Avatar plus the first of Alvin 2, SH1 and It's Complicated, the fact that there are 6 new wide openers may do nearly as much damage anyway, by providing ample new choices and stealing screens from older movies.In summary, to beat DH1, BD1 would not only have to match NM's legs from this day forward but do even better. It may not be able to match that goal in the very short term if today's increase was, as is likely, due to the generally higher increases we've seen on Tuesdays this year, which are almost always accompanied by harder Wednesday drops. And for every day it falls below that marker in the short term, it will need to do better later in its run, but there are reasons to think that the competition BD1 faces, at least while its still making enough money to matter, will be more difficult than what NM faced. So while BD1 beating DH1 is still possible, I'd say its far from probable. Edited by Chrestomanci
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites






Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.

  I accept