Real Friday numbers (starting pg 5) (BD1 5.5 Muppets 2.73, Hugo 2.005)

[tawasal]

BD1 isn`t just hititng $16 mio for the weekend. It`s hitting closer to $17 mio. Now I hope it can actually reach that one with a good jump today and lower drop on Sunday. But either way, legs are better than New Moon`s, it`s catching up very well, nothing of note opens until 21st, and holiday season should be kind to holdovers. $300 m io isn`t dead and passing NM and DH1 is locked. Keep not believing if it suits you but you`ll see.

2 big movies are opening wide on december the 16th.

Sherlock 2 and Alvins 3.

[Noctis]

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:Only you are shocked. I was predicting great hold due to wedding and sex shit and you asked me what I was smoking? Who`s a pothead now? Oh, wait, you`ve always been one, with capital P.

Excuse me? I predicted a 65% drop, and it'll end up having a 60% drop. YOU predicted a sub-50% drop. YOU'RE still smoking a lot of batshit stuff. I've always been a Pothead, but that doesn't mean I let it get in the way of my predictions. I mean, I've already said there is a small chance for it to beat DH1.I called you out on the sub-50% drop, which was insane and still is.

[tawasal]

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:Only you are shocked. I was predicting great hold due to wedding and sex shit and you asked me what I was smoking? Who`s a pothead now? Oh, wait, you`ve always been one, with capital P.

Fishnets, I can tell you what you are smoking? Twithead pot.

[ddddeeee]

Yay for Hunger Games trailer, I mean BD1.

[Noctis]

When I went to see BD1, they played ten trailers. And not one of them was Hunger Games. I was PISSED.

[Hiccup]

DH1 had 4.8M on Friday, New Moon 5.1M, and BD1 5.5M

[tawasal]

DH1 had 4.8M on Friday, New Moon 5.1M, and BD1 5.5M

NM and BD1 had bigger OW but lower 2nd and they both going to get less than DH1 3rd week. So that means nothin'.

[iceroll]

I think 290 million is attainable but it will need non-Twilight legs to get to 295-300 million.

Actually if it has Twilight legs it would make it that far and even further. Twilight held very well after the second weekend.

[kyky]

i can't believe the numbers for that piece of shit. i guess there are still a lot of virgin girls willing to droll over some pretend sex with those two planks of wood. i thought they'd get a boyfriend by now. guess not

[Elessar]

DH1 had 4.8M on Friday, New Moon 5.1M, and BD1 5.5M

Well, DH1 increased 55% on Sat, BD1 might not even 30%.

[fishstick]

2 big movies are opening wide on december the 16th.Sherlock 2 and Alvins 3.

And sex-starved moms, obese highschool vigins and baumer are gonna flock to Alvin? I don`t think so.Re:Twihead. not bloody likely. I haven`t even bothered with BD cause that book does not exist for me but credit where credit is due. It`s playing like gangbusters with above mentioned 3 major demographics and I don`t see why it wouldn`t continue to chug along until it reaches $300 mio or at least pass DH1 and NM WITHOUT Imax help. I`m just realistic. I`m by no means a TFhead either but I called a billion for TF3 and was right. Edited December 3, 2011 by fishnets

[Hiccup]

Well, DH1 increased 55% on Sat, BD1 might not even 30%.

What if it did???

[tawasal]

And sex-starved obese moms, highschool vigins and baumer are gonna flock to Alvin? I don`t think so.Tawasal, not bloody likely. I haven`t even bothered with BD cause that book does not exist for me but credit where credit is due. It`s playing like gangbusters with above mentioned 3 major demographics and I don`t see why it wouldn`t continue to chug along until it reaches $300 mio or at least pass DH1 and NM WITHOUT Imax help. I`m just realistic. I`m by no means a TFhead either but I called a billion for TF3 and was right.

That potion is good fishnets and it's not with the dark force.I am not saying it will stop it's almost non-twilight like run, but the competition in this december is bigger than in 2010.

[fishstick]

SH 2 is hardly a must-see. Now competition next year is something that BD2 will have tough time with cause 2012 is shaping up to be spectacular.But my Over Bond Over TA Club will succeed!

Edited December 3, 2011 by fishnets

[Elessar]

What if it did???

It would surprise me, since NM did only +26%. The Twilight franchise, being chick flicks, has stronger Fridays.

[tawasal]

SH 2 is hardly a must-see. Now competition next year is something that BD2 will have tough time with cause 2012 is shaping up to be spectacular.But my Over Bond Over TA Club will succeed!

I am going to support that to the death.

[tawasal]

Fishnets, I said compared to 2010, which was a very weak month for blockbusters. Other than Tron and True Grit, there was no over 170m movies.

[druv10]

Well, DH1 increased 55% on Sat, BD1 might not even 30%.

I think the increase will be in the 30-35 percent range. New Moon had a 27 % increase and BD1 has held better so far.

[acab]

Nice hold for BD 1 and a pretty bad for The Muppets unfortunately. Very solid hold for Hugo even with the theater boost. It still looks to have the best per-screen average. Good numbers for Arthur Christmas and Jack and Jill, OK for the Immortals and Tower Heist. Bad drops but expected ones for Happy Feet 2 and Puss in Boots.

[Chrestomanci]

BD1 isn`t just hititng $16 mio for the weekend. It`s hitting closer to $17 mio. Now I hope it can actually reach that one with a good jump today and lower drop on Sunday. But either way, legs are better than New Moon`s, it`s catching up very well, nothing of note opens until 21st, and holiday season should be kind to holdovers. $300 m io isn`t dead and passing NM and DH1 is locked. Keep not believing if it suits you but you`ll see.

Look, the Friday jump was actually basically in line with NM, not significantly better, and the Friday estimate is less than 8% better than NM's actual on the equivalent day. Not including Friday since it's still an estimate, from where it finished on Thursday BD1 would have to make just over $59.6M for the rest of its run to hit $290M; that's slightly over 5% more than NM did in the equivalent time frame, so that does seem to be very possible, though not guaranteed. But to catch DH1, it would have to do at least $64.61M for the rest of its run after Thursday -- that's nearly 14% better than NM in the equivalent time frame. That's not a lock, that's still a major reach, especially with New Year's Eve opening next weekend and directly targeting the main Twilight audience. And as far as $300M goes, after Thursday BD1 still needs over $69.6M for the rest of its run to hit that mark, which is close to 22.8% more than NM did in the equivalent period. With NYE opening in just a week's time and BD1 having had only a single day with a number greater than 10% higher than NM's so far and not one even close to 15% higher, never mind 22.8% . . . the chances of $300M may not be totally gone, but I'd say that they're infinitesimally small.