CaptainJackSparrow Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yes, 78 mil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Had a telephone interview yesterday, and I actually used the Conan O'Brien quote on Shawn's sig in the interview... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamKendall Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Damn, I hope your wrong about that under 80 stuff, because that would be depressing. Remember the 120 OW club ... and some saying closer to 150 Far cry. Still, I'm thinking positive 90+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Yes, 78 mil! Quiet you. Quit hating on Thor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Still hope for 90m+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceroll Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 78m would be in line with the OS grosses in developed Western countries like Australia and France. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Based on my data for Friday openers: Midnight/Preview Percentage of Opening Day for Marvel Films XMen - 2.7M (13.0%) X2 - 4.1M (13.0%) X3 - 5.9M (13.1%) XO: Wolverine - 5.0M (14.5%) FC - 3.4M (15.8%) TW - 4.0M (19.4%) SM1 - 7.0M (17.8%) SM3 - 16.7% TIH - 3.2M (15.0%) Thor - 3.8M (14.9%) CA - 4.0M (15.6%) IM1 - 5.3M (15.0%) IM2 - 7.5M (14.6%) IM3 - 15.6M (22.7%) TA - 18.7M (23.1%) The rule for Marvel films used to be that midnight gross equals ~15% (+/-) of total OD gross. The introduction of 3D AND Thursday previews has driven that share upwards. The new target area has become 20-25%. So, let's look at both ends, following Thor's weekend adjusted IM (IM without preview/midnights) of 2.86 Previews = 20% 7.1M Previews 28.4M Friday (35.5M Total) 81.2M Fri - Sun 88.3M OW Previews = 25% 7.1M Previews 21.3M Friday (28.4M Total) 60.9M Fri - Sun 68.0M OW So a range of 68-88M. Not very helpful, but it puts the median at right around 78M, in line with what I said earlier. Looks like I'm losing some money on HSX this weekend. With all that said, I think its smart to keep in mind that none of those films opened in November. The expectation should be that it holds better over the weekend than the average of those Summer openers. That said, I don't think the actual opening day figure is going to be much higher than 35M at the high end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Disney predicted OZ in the 80'a range... Marvel plays it safe they way over predicted IM2. I think Marvel said it was tracking 160m before it opened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 (edited) Based on my data for Friday openers: Midnight/Preview Percentage of Opening Day for Marvel Films XMen - 2.7M (13.0%) X2 - 4.1M (13.0%) X3 - 5.9M (13.1%) XO: Wolverine - 5.0M (14.5%) FC - 3.4M (15.8%) TW - 4.0M (19.4%) SM1 - 7.0M (17.8%) SM3 - 16.7% TIH - 3.2M (15.0%) Thor - 3.8M (14.9%) CA - 4.0M (15.6%) IM1 - 5.3M (15.0%) IM2 - 7.5M (14.6%) IM3 - 15.6M (22.7%) TA - 18.7M (23.1%) The rule for Marvel films used to be that midnight gross equals ~15% (+/-) of total OD gross. The introduction of 3D AND Thursday previews has driven that share upwards. The new target area has become 20-25%. So, let's look at both ends, following Thor's weekend adjusted IM (IM without preview/midnights) of 2.86 Previews = 20% 7.1M Previews 28.4M Friday (35.5M Total) 81.2M Fri - Sun 88.3M OW Previews = 25% 7.1M Previews 21.3M Friday (28.4M Total) 60.9M Fri - Sun 68.0M OW So a range of 68-88M. Not very helpful, but it puts the median at right around 78M, in line with what I said earlier. Looks like I'm losing some money on HSX this weekend. Thanks for the number-crunching, spizzer. Doesn't the season change factor into it, though? Certainly it's a wild card... there's a big difference between opening in May and opening in November. edit: LOL, that's what I get for posting without reading the rest of the thread. Edited November 8, 2013 by Telemachos 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Thanks for the number-crunching, spizzer. Doesn't the season change factor into it, though? Certainly it's a wild card... there's a big difference between opening in May and opening in November. edit: LOL, that's what I get for posting without reading the rest of the thread. Happens to the best of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 After seeing Gravity Thor: The Dark World seems even more subpar than before. It should also be noted that Gravity cost 70M dollars less than Thor. Guess which movie's imagery will be in my head for the next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 After seeing Gravity Thor: The Dark World seems even more subpar than before. It should also be noted that Gravity cost 70M dollars less than Thor. Guess which movie's imagery will be in my head for the next year? Probably more than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K1stpierre Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 After seeing Gravity Thor: The Dark World seems even more subpar than before. It should also be noted that Gravity cost 70M dollars less than Thor. Guess which movie's imagery will be in my head for the next year? Well, it depends what you mean by imagery? Do you mean cinematography or handsome male faces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 After seeing Gravity Thor: The Dark World seems even more subpar than before. It should also be noted that Gravity cost 70M dollars less than Thor. Guess which movie's imagery will be in my head for the next year? Bad Grandpa? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Probably more than that... Just going by Wikipedia's info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Bad Grandpa? Its a funny movie, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Well, it depends what you mean by imagery? Do you mean cinematography or handsome male faces LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 35-40 mill + should happen today. I have no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainJackSparrow Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 40 is too high, closer to 33 mil methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
