John Marston Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Why are people compRing this to IM3? IM3 is a family movie and performed like one. HG is more comparable to HP and Twilight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Why are people compRing this to IM3? IM3 is a family movie and performed like one. HG is more comparable to HP and Twilight I don't think this is true at all Midnight % of OW THG - 12.9% NM - 18.4% BD1 - 21.9% BD2 - 21.6% DH1 - 19.2% If CF follows Potter/Twilight, the high end for the weekend with 25.3M from previews, is 133M, and the low end, 115M. It's not going to match THG by any means, but it will be closer in line to THG than Potter/Twilight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Why are people compRing this to IM3? IM3 is a family movie and performed like one. HG is more comparable to HP and Twilight I was saying that it should have done 174 in terms of those factors, but after that midnight, I agree, it won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Amen. (Although to be fair, he just reports what he's told. If evening shows are strong, he'll say that (like what happened with IM3). He's just terrible with extrapolation. The best example of this is Hobbit:AUJ. He predicted a ridiculous number like 120 or something post-Friday. And every outlet seemed to jump on that number and report it. The forums on the other hand, got it spot on extrapolating from the "true" Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I was saying that it should have done 174 in terms of those factors, but after that midnight, I agree, it won't 174 was 3D. IM3's adjusted performance is probably in line with what CF will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 174 was 3D. IM3's adjusted performance is probably in line with what CF will do. That would be lower attendance than THG though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 (edited) Of course CF will blow up tonight. However so has every big opener ? Considering the type of film. It needs strong day business and really go crazy at night. Edited November 22, 2013 by Lordmandeep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The best example of this is Hobbit:AUJ. He predicted a ridiculous number like 120 or something post-Friday. And every outlet seemed to jump on that number and report it. The forums on the other hand, got it spot on extrapolating from the "true" Friday. Yes, exactly! That was the moment I threw up my hands and gave up on him -- permanently -- as any sort of accurate prognosticator. Assuming that a large-release blockbuster with a large fan-base and a significant midnight number is going to have a Saturday increase (including midnights!) is such a rookie mistake. I couldn't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Of course CF will blow up tonight. However so has every big opener ? Considering the type of film. It needs strong day business and really go crazy at night. Exactly. Every big movie sells out Friday night shows like crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The international estimate for 43 territories is already $32 million, counting the early grosses when it opened a week early in Brazil. Most major territories opened more than double that of the first film, according to Lionsgate. The film opens in 65 territories this weekend. http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/ How many territories are in overseas markets? That's something that has always confused me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 174 was 3D. IM3's adjusted performance is probably in line with what CF will do. What Spizzer said. It wouldn't make sense for CF to only do what the original did attendance wise on OW. The series and JLaw have grown too much and it's a sequel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 What Spizzer said. It wouldn't make sense for CF to only do what the original did attendance wise on OW. The series and JLaw have grown too much and it's a sequel. The series may have gotten bigger but the first movie also brought in a lot of curious bystanders. The series wasn't worth $400 million when the first movie was released. As far as JLaw factor is concerned, I have made this point before but a movie like this has its own dynamic and one actor, however popular, is not going to change the behavior of an already huge franchise. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 THG was a perfect storm imo. It had fan interest and casual interest. Sequels do lose some of the audience. It's inevitable. When a film is absolutely massive for the first film, it is almost always guaranteed to fall for the second. I know there are exceptions like TTT and TRF2 but for the most part films that have a truly huge first film lose part of their audience for the second. That's why I predicted 355. That might end up being low, but then again, it might be bang on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Thor: The Dark World BV $1,679,992 -16% -53% 3,841 $437 $153,720,821 14 2 2 The Best Man Holiday Uni. $1,416,800 -15% - 2,024 $700 $37,869,590 7 3 3 Last Vegas CBS $622,318 -16% -33% 3,237 $192 $49,525,749 21 4 4 Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Par. $399,546 -20% -45% 3,190 $125 $92,000,765 28 5 5 Gravity WB $378,356 -18% -34% 1,845 $205 $242,197,604 49 6 6 12 Years a Slave FoxS $367,271 -15% -28% 1,411 $260 $26,593,312 35 7 9 Free Birds Rela. $298,578 -2% -25% 3,510 $85 $43,293,865 21 8 7 Ender's Game LG/S $296,488 -28% -54% 3,236 $92 $55,218,473 21 9 8 Captain Phillips Sony $284,311 -18% -33% 2,626 $108 $98,884,468 42 10 10 About Time Uni. $211,335 -25% -44% 1,280 $165 $12,573,058 21 - - Dallas Buyers Club Focus $165,013 -5% +175% 184 $897 $3,686,901 21 - - Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony $71,870 -10% -28% 1,645 $44 $113,365,425 56 - - Enough Said FoxS $38,912 -7% -26% 393 $99 $16,745,161 65 - - The Book Thief Fox $29,729 -15% +248% 29 $1,025 $697,860 14 - - Escape Plan LG/S $28,512 -45% -61% 687 $42 $24,325,582 35 - - The Counselor Fox $27,073 -28% -62% 481 $56 $16,734,835 28 - - Carrie (2013) SGem $24,997 -41% -69% 933 $27 $35,195,366 35 - - Despicable Me 2 Uni. $19,825 -7% -15% 305 $65 $366,031,955 142 - - Prisoners WB $18,834 -16% +26% 355 $53 $60,675,667 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I CAN'T TAKE ANOTHER STAR TREK 2! I CAN'T! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 What Spizzer said. It wouldn't make sense for CF to only do what the original did attendance wise on OW. The series and JLaw have grown too much and it's a sequel. Says who? It's really conjecture until we see numbers. I'm seeing a couple evening sellouts pop up in LA, including a couple IMAX shows. And there are a couple more that will be sellouts (just a few seats left). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 You know why it wont set any records. Because I am not going to watch it and I watched the last one!!! It lose 12 million I mean 12 bucks right there. (lol actually going next weekend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumos Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 This midnight number for Catching Fire validates my theory that films perform better at midnight in the summer versus the winter season. I know many of us had that hunch, but this number really makes it quite obvious. DH1 was also expected to make around 30M and "disappointed" when it only did 24m...and now we're seeing the same thing happen with Catching Fire. Therefore, I think it would be safe to assume had Breaking Dawn Part 1 and 2 been released in the summer they would have made around 32-34m at midnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 THG was a perfect storm imo. It had fan interest and casual interest. Sequels do lose some of the audience. It's inevitable. When a film is absolutely massive for the first film, it is almost always guaranteed to fall for the second. I know there are exceptions like TTT and TRF2 but for the most part films that have a truly huge first film lose part of their audience for the second. That's why I predicted 355. That might end up being low, but then again, it might be bang on. I have no doubt that the potential for it to drop total is there, and not only there, but probable. But it's a sequel. Spider Man 2 dropped from the first but if it was released over a three day it would have done 125+ in 2004. Sequels combine the new fans of casual interest who saw it on the third or fourth weekend last time PLUS the rabid fans. That's why this weekend is the confounding thing. I have no doubt that it might drop below like 375 in total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainJackSparrow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Instead of seeing this today, I am going to watch The Croods for the first time instead. (I am sick) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
