Which is better? First weekend of May, or third weekend of July?

[Gokai Red]

This has always been a question that's bothered me. Let's say you're a studio head that'll be releasing a big movie soon. 

 

Assuming the movie has great word of mouth, no direct competition, and you are trying to maximize profit, would it be better to release it during the first weekend of May (Avengers, Spider-Man 1 and 3, Iron Man 1, 2, and 3), or during the third weekend of July (TDK, TDKR, Harry Potter 8)? Or is some other weekend better?

 

 

[Films]

First weekend of may

[Goffe]

the weekend before Fourth of July is the best date, period

[iceroll]

the weekend before Fourth of July is the best date, period

Exactly, and people were complaining about TASM got shafted in its release date and suddenly TASM 2 will have a 100m increase because it moved to the first weekend of May.

[John Marston]

the weekend before Fourth of July is the best date, period

 

 

no it is not. 

[Goffe]

no it is not. 

yes it is, at least of the summer

[Jake Gittes]

Between the two I'd say third weekend of July. Better weekdays + not much strong competition in August.

[Gokai Red]

the weekend before Fourth of July is the best date, period

Can you explain why you so strongly believe this? The best three examples of this opener are TF3, DM2, and SM2, which all happen to be Wednesday releases. Why is this?

 

 

Between the two I'd say third weekend of July. Better weekdays + not much strong competition in August.

But would you say there is a better weekend in the year overall?

 

Would Memorial Day Weekend, pre-Thanksgiving Weekend, or pre-Christmas Weekend be better?

[lab276]

Can you explain why you so strongly believe this? The best three examples of this opener are TF3, DM2, and SM2, which all happen to be Wednesday releases. Why is this?

For whatever reason, the convention is to release 4th of July films on the Wednesday, except when the 4th is a Wednesday (like 2012 or 2007) in which case it's released on Tuesday.

[Goffe]

Can you explain why you so strongly believe this? The best three examples of this opener are TF3, DM2, and SM2, which all happen to be Wednesday releases. Why is this?

school holidays (unlike May) and a big holiday in it's first week (unlike July)

[CloneWars]

The best weekend to release a film is the weekend before Christmas. EX: See Titanic, Avatar and EVII. Also, the LOTR trilogy.

Edited November 24, 2013 by CloneWars

[Goffe]

The best weekend to release a film is the weekend before Christmas. EX: See Titanic, Avatar and EVII. Also, the LOTR trilogy.

Definitively, but I think he was talking only about summer

[Gokai Red]

I was talking about any point in the year. 

 

I think the pre-Thanksgiving weekend is also a top contender.

 

For the past 5 pre-Thanksgivings, a young adult adaption has opened to over 125m, with the averages of the 1 HP and 3 Twilights that have opened there being 291.6m (136.8 OW average). This weekend is incredibly consistent in giving a Top 5 movie of the year. Whereas with the other weekends, there is a much bigger range for the movie to fall into.

 

For comparison, the past 5 summer starters average 132.1/342.3 (with range of 141.7/443.5).

If you want to remove the obvious outlier that is Avengers and add 2008, we get 110.3/281.3 (range of 108.4/229.1)

 

The past 5 mid Julys average 102.5/312.2 (range of 127.3/310.7)

[Goffe]

I was talking about any point in the year. 

 

I think the pre-Thanksgiving weekend is also a top contender.

 

For the past 5 pre-Thanksgivings, a young adult adaption has opened to over 125m, with the averages of the 1 HP and 3 Twilights that have opened there being 291.6m (136.8 OW average). This weekend is incredibly consistent in giving a Top 5 movie of the year. Whereas with the other weekends, there is a much bigger range for the movie to fall into.

 

For comparison, the past 5 summer starters average 132.1/342.3 (with range of 141.7/443.5).

If you want to remove the obvious outlier that is Avengers and add 2008, we get 110.3/281.3 (range of 108.4/229.1)

 

The past 5 mid Julys average 102.5/312.2 (range of 127.3/310.7)

hmm, in that case I think the Hobbit (one or two weeks before the Christmas) date is the best date of the year.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Depends:

 

First weekend is best for Marvel and is dominated by Marvel, aka Disney or Sony tent pole of the year

 

MD weekend is split by Fox, Universal tent pole of the year

 

ID weekend usually belongs to Paramount biggest tent pole of the year

 

3rd weekend of July works best for DC/WB tent pole of the year

 

Weekend before Xmax, suits tent poles with family appeals best. Will be taken if James Cameron releases a movie.

[The Panda]

Depends:First weekend is best for Marvel and is dominated by Marvel, aka Disney or Sony tent pole of the yearMD weekend is split by Fox, Universal tent pole of the yearID weekend usually belongs to Paramount biggest tent pole of the year3rd weekend of July works best for DC/WB tent pole of the yearWeekend before Xmax, suits tent poles with family appeals best. Will be taken if James Cameron releases a movie.

Universal took the Fourth of July weekend last year though. Although you are right in who usually takes each of those weekends, but that's just the current trend, Pirates has taken the July weekend before, but I think if depends more on what movie is being released on a date than the date itself. A movie that's going to sell is going to sell no matter when it's released (although some weekends are definitely more desirable than others). Look at Gravity, it's out grossed the majority of the tentpoles this year and it was an October release, it just kind of shows it's the movie being released that determines the profitability not the date.

[Lordmandeep]

Depends...

 

It would be interest to note how TA would have done in Mid July. 

[keysersoze123]

There is nothing special domestically about 1st week of may. weekdays are still weak(All schools are still on) and 1st holiday boost does not happen until 4th weekend. Globally movies do benefit from May Day. Domestically "1st of the block" is kind of a plus but if a big movie release in April(we have seen that with Fast 5) then that advantage is moot.

 

I think strongest summer weeks are in mid june to mid july when movies have super strong weekdays and all schools are all out. By August 2nd week weekday holds are not great. Internationally movies can do well during that timeframe looking at TF4, DH2 etc.

 

Weekend before christmas or thanksgiving are also awesome.

[Lordmandeep]

First weekend of May perhaps increases buzz as its the film that starts of Summer 

[keysersoze123]

First weekend of May perhaps increases buzz as its the film that starts of Summer 

 

Are you talking in domestic or OS. bcos it aint summer yet. What you are talking about is 1st mover advantage. Then what difference is 1st weekend of may from say mid april or mid may(assuming nothing big opens before).

 

studios are trying to stretch the concept of "summer" for a while. memorial weekend used to be summer for a while. SW opened a week before and then we kept stretching. We can say it got stretched to last week of April when Fast 5 opened couple of years back. I am sure something will open a week earlier in next few years as well. Especially if the marvel flick is a weak one.