Nov 22-24 #s CF: $158,074,286 actual | Dark Knight triumphant after all

[Biggestgeekever]

I wish I remembered firedeep's version of TDKR opening weekend box office.

[kayumanggi]

It would be better if Lionsgate won't claim the 2D record has been broken until the actuals.

[Heretic]

Has a chance at Thanksgiving 3-day record now.

[Lordmandeep]

Hey I still called a 50 million Saturday which was a bigger increase then THG.

 

Anyways I think its quite clear a box office trend has been established.

 

If a film has early previews it has a stronger Saturday increase.

 

That Explains how BD2 stayed flat from Midnights, IM3 increased  15% and Thor 2 increased from its opening Day and CF increasing more then THG.

 

If they were midnight openers, I think they would not have gotten such Saturday increases. 

 

I think 400 is back on track but I think no more. 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Lordmandeep

[TLK]

It would be better if Lionsgate won't claim the 2D record has been broken until the actuals.

 

I don't think they will because ,in all probability, they have over-estimated the Friday numbers. Friday will likely fall below $70 million with actuals.

[TLK]

Hey I still called a 50 million Saturday which was a bigger increase then THG.

 

Anyways I think its quite clear a box office trend has been established.

 

If a film has early previews it has a stronger Saturday increase.

 

That Explains how BD2 stayed flat from Midnights, IM3 increased  15% and Thor 2 increased from its opening Day and CF increasing more then THG.

 

If they were midnight openers, I think they would not have gotten such Saturday increases. 

 

 

 

That's a really good point. It remains to be tested but I have noticed a lot of saturday performances this year that have defied the usual pattern.

[Batman]

I don't think they will because ,in all probability, they have over-estimated the Friday numbers. Friday will likely fall below $70 million with actuals.

Yeah it should be around 68-69m.

[Lordmandeep]

That's a really good point. It remains to be tested but I have noticed a lot of saturday performances this year that have defied the usual pattern.

 

 

Yeah no way would CF, IM3 and Thor 2 get such Saturday performance from midnight openings. 

 

 

I think the estimate should be around 160 million and a finally gross about 390-THG. 

 

Based on the way CF opened, it may be below sky high expectations but a great opening. Should be big enough to be declared biggest opening weekend of 2013 in tickets sold over IM3. 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Lordmandeep

[Fake]

Hey I still called a 50 million Saturday which was a bigger increase then THG.Anyways I think its quite clear a box office trend has been established.If a film has early previews it has a stronger Saturday increase.That Explains how BD2 stayed flat from Midnights, IM3 increased 15% and Thor 2 increased from its opening Day and CF increasing more then THG.If they were midnight openers, I think they would not have gotten such Saturday increases.

Good analysis. I agree.

[keysersoze123]

I don't think they will because ,in all probability, they have over-estimated the Friday numbers. Friday will likely fall below $70 million with actuals.

 

if friday goes down that makes saturday even more extraordinary.  That is why I am skeptical friday will go down much looking at saturday number. But it wont be shocking to see it god down at all. LG could claim 2d record and then with actuals it falls down by a million or 2.

 

But leggy OW tend to increase from estimates with the help of stronger than usual sunday.

[Lordmandeep]

Sunday drop using the old Hp1 and Hp2 is 27 and 28%

 

Hp7 and BD 1 and 2 are around 33-34%

 

 

I think 27-30% looks good. 

[The Stingray]

Hey I still called a 50 million Saturday which was a bigger increase then THG.

I called 52m.  

[Lordmandeep]

I called 52m.  

 

 

Good call

 

I had a gut 50+ yesterday but I think CF is doing an anomaly around me so I should stop tracking it around myself as it stopped me from thinking higher.

 

However even I say the Friday estimate it should do better then THG Sat increase by default. 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Lordmandeep

[Fake]

Sunday drop using the old Hp1 and Hp2 is 27 and 28%Hp7 and BD 1 and 2 are around 33-34%I think 27-30% looks good.

HP1-2 were movies appealing to kids.HP7/BD1-2 were movies appealing to older teens/young adults.I think CF drops over 30%.

[keysersoze123]

HP1-2 were movies appealing to kids.HP7/BD1-2 were movies appealing to older teens/young adults.I think CF drops over 30%.

 

HG dropped 30.8% in march and this one should hold better as its slightly bigger plus it plays wider as franchise is better known. Twilight 1 had horrible sat/sun holds but New Moon did much better on both sat/sun (looking at drop minus midnights).

 

I am calling for drop just under 30%.

[Ajde]

HP1-2 were movies appealing to kids.HP7/BD1-2 were movies appealing to older teens/young adults.I think CF drops over 30%.

IKR, cuz otoh CF appeals to no one so it's a lock to drop way over that 30%

[Lordmandeep]

In comparison to past films CF Saturday is one of the best selling ever and best for its genre. 

[Lordmandeep]

Big thing working against CF that THG did not deal with is the third weekend drop which if you look back is around 60% for big openers. 

 

 

However looking at CF should be around 20-30 million ahead of THG next weekend. 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Lordmandeep

[CJohn]

52-53M Saturday? 

[keysersoze123]

Big thing working against CF that THG did not deal with is the third weekend drop which if you look back is around 60% for big openers. 

 

True. But it has a holiday week next which THG did not have. Which means super strong weekdays. Anyway CF will not get HG multiplier. So it does not matter. Like HG I expect it to have decent legs after that.