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2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

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Granted I haven't seen a single Fury trailer, but I never understood why it was in the race in the first place. It's David Ayer. I mean I liked End of Watch but knowing the guy's overall filmography I could never imagine him chasing Oscars or even unintentionally helming a potential Best Picture nominee.

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Granted I haven't seen a single Fury trailer, but I never understood why it was in the race in the first place. It's David Ayer. I mean I liked End of Watch but knowing the guy's overall filmography I could never imagine him chasing Oscars or even unintentionally helming a potential Best Picture nominee.

 

I had faith in it until I got my hands on the script. My excuse is that the first trailer looked really, really good.

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  1. Unbroken
  2. Interstellar
  3. The Imitation Game
  4. Birdman
  5. Gone Girl 
  6. Boyhood 
  7. Foxcatcher
  8. Into the Woods
  9. ? - could be anything at this point 

I'd say top 4 is pretty set, but the order is not. Gone Girl might get swapped with Boyhood or Foxcatcher, if they pick up steam. 

 

? could be Wild, Trash or The Theory of Everything. Maybe Selma, American Sniper or Inherent Vice. Exodus is a dark horse for the last slot if it's a return to form for Scott. 

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think its going to be close between interstellar , birdman, and unbroken. boyhood no chance, better luck on the indie film circuits, not the oscars.

 

inherent vice early reviews are mixed. it has no chance for BP.

Edited by Halba
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At present I think the noms look like:

 

Locks:

Unbroken

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Birdman

Boyhood

 

Near-locks:

Interstellar (not calling it a lock given their history with Sci-fi and Nolan snubs in general)

Gone Girl

 

Fairly likely:

Selma

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Theory of Everything

 

Outside Chances:

American Sniper

Whiplash

Wild

Big Eyes

 

I honestly don't think Into the Woods is even an outside chance unless it gets stellar reviews and grosses like $200m+ at the box office. Marshall hasn't gotten close to a BP nod since Chicago, and this feels like Nine all over again. Musical with a  big cast that will be a critical failure. Maybe this one will be commercially successful since it's got Disney behind it, but BP chances seem nil to me.

Edited by MovieMan89
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By that standard, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 should be there  :P

 RT can be more flexible and more audience friendly having given high RT's to avengers, dark knight, and skyfall recently. none got a look in at oscars time in this category.

 

but whiplash is a critic friendly film, its going to get a nom for sure now.

Edited by Halba
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 RT can be more flexible and more audience friendly having given high RT's to avengers, dark knight, and skyfall recently. none got a look in at oscars time in this category.

 

but whiplash is a critic friendly film, its going to get a nom for sure now.

Plenty of films with low/mid-level RT scores have gotten BP nods (Extremely Loud, Blind Side, The Reader, Les Miz, Crash, Wolf of Wall Street, etc). Just getting a 96% isn't the determiner; otherwise, we'd just get the 9 most acclaimed films. 

 

 

Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 had an 8.8/10 score from 48 top critics. It should have gotten in if The Help and Extremely Loud did. 

 

Kinda makes me sad the Oscars are determined by what's baity/Oscary enough. Otherwise, LEGO Movie might have a shot at BP

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whiplash 96% and 8.6 ave rating, belongs there

I'd definitely call it the dark horse BP contender this year. It could definitely pull a Beasts of the Southern Wild and get nominated I think. We'll see how it can hold its momentum through the storm of the big contenders, which could potentially wash it out of the race.

Edited by MovieMan89
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I'd definitely call it the dark horse BP contender this year. It could definitely pull a Beasts of the Southern Wild and get nominated I think. We'll see how it can hold its momentum through the storm of the big contenders, which could potentially wash it out of the race.

First AMPAS screenings have started for Whiplash and the reactions for it are very strong.

JK Simmons is probably a lock for the win in supporting actor.

Edited by The Futurist
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Well, Fury is officially out of the race unless the reviews really pick up.

 

I think the worst mistake that movie made was...

 

Try squeezing in too much character development in one day. That's right. The movie lasts one single day. You don't get the feeling of time passing and you get the feeling that the characters are developed too quickly.

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David Ayer wrote Training Day, which is amazing, but it feels like he wants to remind us with every movie. that sounds like training day with a tank. though I'm guessing Pitt isn't playing the personification of corruption that denzel was playing in that movie.

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Well, Fury is officially out of the race unless the reviews really pick up.

Ehh... The Reader and Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close got meh to horrible reviews and they still snagged nods. Nine got an acting nom despite its horrible reviews. 

 

But yeah Fury is probably a long-shot. Foxcatcher is Sony's BP frontrunner. 

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